Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[FluxCap]

I think Your reading too deeply into this decision. IMO Tesla execs frequent this forum and just piggybacked off of your research.

What he said. It's like they adopted the Sleepyhead Plan(tm). Wise moves, whether coincidence or not. ;-)

 

[uselesslogin]

Thought I might post this since it appears to be pushing SPWR up 10% in pre-market today:
Google and SunPower Team Up to Finance $250 Million in Residential Solar Lease Projects - Yahoo Finance

 

[Chickenlittle]

Thought I might post this since it appears to be pushing SPWR up 10% in pre-market today:
Google and SunPower Team Up to Finance $250 Million in Residential Solar Lease Projects - Yahoo Finance

Pure luck bought my calls last Thursday. This has been the issue I have with scty. What is to stop other companies from leasing solar? When I asked this previously answers did not make sense like expertise in installation. Not rocket science.

Have to say surprised given google founders relationship with musk that it was google giving the financing

 

[ggr]

Pure luck bought my calls last Thursday. This has been the issue I have with scty. What is to stop other companies from leasing solar? When I asked this previously answers did not make sense like expertise in installation. Not rocket science.

Have to say surprised given google founders relationship with musk that it was google giving the financing

Another way to look at this is that it's extra validation for Solar City's business model.

 

[Lessmog]

Another way to look at this is that it's extra validation for Solar City's business model.

Flattery in plagiarism, then?

 

[uselesslogin]

Another way to look at this is that it's extra validation for Solar City's business model.

I don't know though. Is it worse than that? The panel maker doesn't have to make money on leasing, only the panels.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Another way to look at this is that it's extra validation for Solar City's business model.

I didn't think it was a bad model just that absolutely no barriers to other entering. Can even see utility company entering. The stock price of scty supported by the promise of expansion and future profits. Both of these limited by competition. I wasn't saying its a bad company but large risk of buying stock due to completion around the corner
not completion but competition

 

[The Blue Owl]

Thought I might post this since it appears to be pushing SPWR up 10% in pre-market today:
Google and SunPower Team Up to Finance $250 Million in Residential Solar Lease Projects - Yahoo Finance

From the press release:

Google is committed to promoting the efficient use of resources and expanding the use of renewable energy. Our partnership with SunPower makes good business sense and supports our goals for a clean energy future.

All we need to do is replace SunPower with Tesla in the above quote, and we get a perfect possible announcement of a partnership between Google and Tesla for the GF .

 

[sleepyhead]

I didn't think it was a bad model just that absolutely no barriers to other entering. Can even see utility company entering. The stock price of scty supported by the promise of expansion and future profits. Both of these limited by competition. I wasn't saying its a bad company but large risk of buying stock due to completion around the corner
not completion but competition

I completely agree with you and this is the main reason I don't like SCTY as an investment:

Solar leasing is very profitable today, so whoever can do it will do it. Whoever has funds (think Goldman, big banks, private equity firms, etc.) will see that the return on investment is just way too big in leasing and will enter the space. Private equity backed Vivint became the second largest US residential solar company in 2013 out of nowhere. Big money sees the returns and they want a piece of it.

Competition will drive down margins and make the business of leasing a lot less attractive eventually. This is basic Econ 101 and is guaranteed to happen: 100% chance.

SCTY will still be able to stay competitive, but now it will have lower margins on top of lower selling prices: Residential system costs will come down by 50% in a few short years in the US.

I have faith in SolarCity, the company, but not SCTY, the stock. I am sure that the company will continue growing and will prosper and do GW's of installations annually in a very short period of time.

But SCTY the stock has already priced in future earnings that are 3-5 years out (depending on how fast they grow). Combine the high stock price with lower margins and 50% lower system costs and I just don't see significant upside in the stock like some others do. I can see SCTY doubling or maybe even tripling over the next 5-10 years, but that would be "only" a 10%-15% annual return.

10%-15% annual return is great, but I invest in the solar sector because I know for sure that we are at the early stages of a solar revolution and that the solar sector will be huge in a decade. This is like investing in Microsoft or Apple in the 80s or 90s. I am looking for that home run and I just don't see it happening in SCTY.

Here is a good article on solar from SA. I have not read the whole thing, but read about half of it and this guy makes a lot of sense:

The Battle For The Sun (Or Who Will Collect The Rental Income For Solar Energy In The 21st Century?) - Seeking Alpha

 

[uselesslogin]

SPWR is up 5% right now on their earnings and whatever they said in their conference call. With TSLA struggling so much I am happy I found this thread and bought some solar stocks for diversification. They are just starting to get back to where they were when TSLA was at 250 so it certainly helps.

 

[Chickenlittle]

SPWR is up 5% right now on their earnings and whatever they said in their conference call. With TSLA struggling so much I am happy I found this thread and bought some solar stocks for diversification. They are just starting to get back to where the were when TSLA was at 250 so it certainly helps.

You should listen to cc. They beat by 30 cents. Maxed out current factory and are to start new one. I didn't hear anything negative. Even looking into storage. As CEO made point their panels are not a commodity but generate upto 75 % more energy over lifetime. Just got into last week with options but my new strategy is to find companies that "decommoditize' their products like alcoa

 

[sleepyhead]

@DaveT - I finally regained the lead in our huge bet after getting clobbered for the past 6 months. SPWR up 17.9% vs. SCTY up 17.4% :tongue:

 

[DaveT]

@DaveT - I finally regained the lead in our huge bet after getting clobbered for the past 6 months. SPWR up 17.9% vs. SCTY up 17.4% :tongue:


View attachment 47964

I noticed that.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I noticed that.

When does the bet end or is it opened ended?

 

[sleepyhead]

It ends on Dec. 31, 2017.

It was intended to be a long-term bet, since short term price fluctuations are impossible to predict.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Big Carbon is worried. Utilities hate net metering and are engaged in a propaganda campaign, financed with Koch money, framing solar-friendly regulation as "another government mandate hurting consumers, like Obamacare."

The NYT has an editorial on the subject titled "The Koch Attack on Solar Energy". I'm typing on my phone and I can't link to it, but it should only be a short Googling away.

 

[kenliles]

Big Carbon is worried. Utilities hate net metering and are engaged in a propaganda campaign, financed with Koch money, framing solar-friendly regulation as "another government mandate hurting consumers, like Obamacare."

The NYT has an editorial on the subject titled "The Koch Attack on Solar Energy". I'm typing on my phone and I can't link to it, but it should only be a short Googling away.

Here's a link to the article. Thanks for the mobile heads up FR

Log In - The New York Times

 

[sleepyhead]

Big Carbon is worried. Utilities hate net metering and are engaged in a propaganda campaign, financed with Koch money, framing solar-friendly regulation as "another government mandate hurting consumers, like Obamacare."

The NYT has an editorial on the subject titled "The Koch Attack on Solar Energy". I'm typing on my phone and I can't link to it, but it should only be a short Googling away.

Thanks for the article. I am going to share it with others. I think that everyone here who has a twitter or facebook account should share it with others too.

 

[kenliles]

Thanks for the article. I am going to share it with others. I think that everyone here who has a twitter or facebook account should share it with others too.

Yep. Done via twitter-dom. Thanks

 

[The Blue Owl]

The first ad linked from the article mentions SolarCity by name (it's printed for the first few seconds.)

Who is TUSK? - YouTube

The second links the push for renewables to Obamacare:

Repeal RPS in Kansas - YouTube

Worth seeing, if you want to feel a cold shiver of rage down your spine on a Saturday night.

Edit: also, the report from the Edison Electric Institute will no doubt be of interest to those who follow Solar in depth. Here is a revealing quote:

The new potential risk to utility investors from disruptive forces is the impact on future earnings growth expectations. Lost revenues within a net metering paradigm, for instance, are able to be recovered in future rate cases. However, without a shift in tariff structures, there is only so much of an increase that can be placed on remaining non-DER customers before political pressure is brought to bear on recovery mechanisms. Once the sustainability of the utility earnings model is questioned, investors will look at the industry through a new lens, and the view from this lens will be adverse to all stakeholders, including investors and customers.