I think that TSLA is in no man's land right now, and I am going to stay away from it for now. At $186 it is still down "only" 30% from it's high and it is still pricing in several years of future earnings at current levels. It is at the mercy of the market right now and if you are betting on TSLA in the short-run then you are essentially betting on the NASDAQ.
In the mean time, I would recommend taking a look at solar stocks, which are down 40%+ in some cases. The difference between solar and TSLA is that solar stocks (outside of SCTY) are all value plays and in most cases are significantly undervalued; take a look at PT's and you will quickly see that analysts are seeing 100% upside in all stocks.
The reason for the weakness has to do with solar trade wars (that will most likely get resolved in a reasonable manner) and Q1 weakness, which is always the weakest quarter of the year.
But Q1 solar demand came in at 9+GW's this year vs. 6-7GW's in 2013, and was higher than Q2 2014 demand and the same as Q3 demand (which is the second strongest quarter after Q4). Demand in solar is booming.
Last year we had 37-38GW's of demand and this year we might have 45-50GW's. Solarbuzz is forecasting 100GW in 2018. Double digit growth rates for years to come, at about 20% per year.
Q1 ER season might be subpar for some panel makers, but they are going to shine big time in Q3 and Q4, especially as project sales start rolling in. But we already had a strong ER from SPWR, FSLR, SCTY, and ENPH (Enphase - inverter maker up 13% today on ER). I can't recall any solar company having a weak ER yet.
Tomorrow morning SUNE and JASO are reporting earnings. I don't follow SUNE as closely as I would like (due to lack of time), but JASO is going to beat consensus tomorrow and have a great ER.
I am estimating $370m in revenue and $0.34 EPS using very conservative non-GAAP (which only takes out non-cash warrant losses). Consensus is at $330m and $0.06 EPS.
Solar stocks might be in a funk for a while as well, but they are so cheap and undervalued that if you buy and hold, and the economy and markets hold up, then you should make a very nice return within 12 months even if they do go lower from here. I highly doubt that they will go much lower though. TSLA on the other hand is at the mercy of the market and it could still go down a lot more from here and I would not be surprised.
Obama is making a big push for clean energy this week. He is allegedly going to introduce new solar initiatives by the end of the weak, and has been pushing his agenda by releasing a climate report yesterday morning:
New White House report: Climate change is here and action needed now - CNN.com
I still have TSLA exposure in the form of J16 bull call spreads, but nothing fancy like some here mine are long $210 - $260, short $280.
I am focusing my efforts on solar stocks for now and looking for a nice recovery in the second half of the year.
You all know which two stocks are my favorite plays
Cheers and happy investing.