Even if I am right it doesn't mean that JASO will go up
It is a long term play, and once the market is out of the funk, eventually solar stocks will go up too. In the mean time, we just need to buckle up and hold on tight.
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Even if I am right it doesn't mean that JASO will go up
It is a long term play, and once the market is out of the funk, eventually solar stocks will go up too. In the mean time, we just need to buckle up and hold on tight.
Buy and Hold
SCTY is looking like it is going to go straight up the rest of the day. I think we might cross $60 today.
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JASO did $0.32 EPS in the weakest quarter of the year. They are going to grow module/cell ratio from 60% to close to 100%, grow shipments QoQ for at least a few quarters going forward. Project sales will roll in starting Q3. DG is expected to pick up in second half as well. They will cut production costs by 10% this year and expect flat ASP's going forward.
$2+ EPS is a realistic possibility, but the market does not give Chinese solar companies any possible growth premium when it comes to share price. The market is more "see it to believe it", and as JASO continues reporting higher EPS in future quarters the stock will go up over time. The growth is easy to see if the economy holds up.
We had some growth premium built into Chinese solar stocks two months ago, but right now they are just bargains. The market is the culprit, and if you believe that the market will turn around and cause TSLA to go up then so will solar stocks (probably more than TSLA due to high beta).
SCTY on the other hand issued strong 2015 guidance and this reminds me of what happened when they issued strong 2014 guidance 6 months ago. The stock will probably regain its mojo and the momentum might be back in SCTY.
Remember that even after this 20% move SCTY is still down over 30% in two months, so there is plenty of room for momo traders to move this stock back up.
SCTY was a good value yesterday at $46 with 1GW 2015 guidance. It is still pricing in a couple of years of future growth, but nothing outrageous. At $60, your upside is a little more limited.
Look for opportunities to accumulate GTAT and SUNE if weakness continues. These stocks might have some weak ER's for the time being, but have great potential in 2015 and beyond. I have not done enough research on them to feel comfortable recommending them or buying myself, so please do your DD.
SCTY is looking like it is going to go straight up the rest of the day. I think we might cross $60 today.
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JASO did $0.32 EPS in the weakest quarter of the year. They are going to grow module/cell ratio from 60% to close to 100%, grow shipments QoQ for at least a few quarters going forward. Project sales will roll in starting Q3. DG is expected to pick up in second half as well. They will cut production costs by 10% this year and expect flat ASP's going forward.
$2+ EPS is a realistic possibility, but the market does not give Chinese solar companies any possible growth premium when it comes to share price. The market is more "see it to believe it", and as JASO continues reporting higher EPS in future quarters the stock will go up over time. The growth is easy to see if the economy holds up.
We had some growth premium built into Chinese solar stocks two months ago, but right now they are just bargains. The market is the culprit, and if you believe that the market will turn around and cause TSLA to go up then so will solar stocks (probably more than TSLA due to high beta).
SCTY on the other hand issued strong 2015 guidance and this reminds me of what happened when they issued strong 2014 guidance 6 months ago. The stock will probably regain its mojo and the momentum might be back in SCTY.
Remember that even after this 20% move SCTY is still down over 30% in two months, so there is plenty of room for momo traders to move this stock back up.
SCTY was a good value yesterday at $46 with 1GW 2015 guidance. It is still pricing in a couple of years of future growth, but nothing outrageous. At $60, your upside is a little more limited.
Look for opportunities to accumulate GTAT and SUNE if weakness continues. These stocks might have some weak ER's for the time being, but have great potential in 2015 and beyond. I have not done enough research on them to feel comfortable recommending them or buying myself, so please do your DD.
+1: You know, I was expecting TSLA to have trouble after ER as the 'momos' hav all been getting beaten up even after 'good' ERs. BUT...JASO has a great ER and wham.....Well, most of my JASO exposure is stock so I will just 'buy and hold'. Have to admit I was hoping it would bring a little green to offset the recent red in my portfolio....
Yea. I've gotten used to solars moving in a herd and moving rather erratically, but JASO today goes beyond head scratching. The stock doesn't seem to move consistently with any relation to what JASO is doing/reporting.
There is no such thing as stock covered put selling unless you are shorting the stock to cover the put that you are selling, but I don't think that is your intention here.
Selling naked puts is not risky at all (unless of course the stock tanks big time or goes bankrupt), because it is exactly that same thing as buying the stock and selling a covered call. Put-Call parity:
-P = U - C
i.e. short put = underlying with short call.
Selling puts does tie up capital though, so you have to have cash set aside that can't be used for other trades.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
One of the CNBC regulars just recommended SPWR as his "last trade", saying it is not a momentum stock, but a value stock.
I have been saying this since last summer when SPWR was at $18. Of course it is a not a momentum stock, and the market will figure this one out sooner or later. Best risk/reward play in solar by far IMO.
Chinese solar stocks aren't momentum stocks either, but the market will never figure this out. They are a "wait and see" type investment. When they deliver results, the market will reward the stock afterwards (or maybe 1-2 months in advance, but not 1-3 years in advance like some other sectors). This is why I love investing in Chinese solar stocks, because you can do the research and then get rewarded for it eventually once the market gets handed on a silver platter (in the form of quarterly ER's) what you saw coming all this time.
There is a reason why my JASO Q1 estimates were dead on the money; you can easily research this stuff if you look hard enough. The Wall St. analysts on the other hand were way off and still don't get it; because the analysts are projecting $1.16 EPS in 2014, the stock is still cheap. If JASO delivers $2+, as I suspect it might then the stock will go up eventually...
Eventually these stocks will go up if fundamentals improve (and they should by a mile in the second half of the year), and I will be cashing out my gains, while others get stuck chasing these stocks at much higher valuations.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Do you see a reasonable chance JASO might take off by fall? Would the $2+ you mentioned bring enough new investors to be able to cut through the weird price action we're seeing (probably caused by manipulation)? Not looking for a guarantee here, obviously, just a gut feel.
If you are interested in JASO then my best advice is to buy shares now below $10 and hold.
It can take off next week, next month, or next year. I really don't know when...
If the market goes into correction mode next then we might see JASO at $8. If the market rally resumes instead, then JASO will go to $12 in a heartbeat.
I really don't know when it will take off, but it looks like it started taking off a little today: up 6%
This is a TMC site so most people here talk about TM/TSLA. The recent drop in TSLA post Q1ER, while not desired, was not totally unexpected. I can NOT for the life of me figure out WTF happened with JASO. It had a 'homerun' Q1ER and it went down. I did not lose any 'paper' money with the JASO drop like I did with TSLA so it did not financially hurt me but I am totally baffled.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Thanks.
That ship has sailed for me, meaning I have no cash on the sidelines now. I asked because in Feb I bought some JASO Jan15 calls far OTM. Right now I don't want to touch them, I'd rather take my chances.
Once again, I do not recommend playing options in JASO or any other solar stocks (although every now and then you might find good deals on SPWR options).
Options is not the way to go with solar. Buy and hold stock is the way to go. But you have to be careful, because solar gets sold indiscriminately during market sell-offs and will get crushed if we hit a recession. But the buy and hold investor will recover even the steepest downturn if you choose the least risky stocks, such as SPWR or JASO.
Options are too risky in solar. I have said it many times before, and now you guys can see why.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Trust me, I believe you. At the time I was so young and enthusiastic. Over the past three months I've matured like you wouldn't believe.
I confess there's a gambling streak running through my bones. I'm working on it. Your posts are of great help.
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