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  1. S

    Tax Credit Clarification

    I don't think it will be taken away. But if our people in charge can repeal the Clean Power Plan, which is what they are trying to do, then taking away this credit would be child's play compared to CPP.
  2. S

    Tax Credit Clarification

    I think what OP is saying is that his tax liability is less than $7,500, e.g. it is $6,000. He will be taking delivery early 2018 so that he can "get as close to $7,500" as possible. I.e. He will get $6,000 as opposed to $3,750 if he waits till end of 2018 for delivery. He claims to understand...
  3. S

    Tax Credit Clarification

    That is exactly what I meant in my post. That is why I wrote his tax liability will be $0 and did not say it would be a negative number. Where I said "you expect to qualify for full $7,500 credit" that was vs. Qualifying for only $3,750 or $1,875, I.e. you get your car by June 30 most likely...
  4. S

    Tax Credit Clarification

    Your case is very simple. In 2018 your tax liability will be less than $7500. But you expect to qualify for full $7500 credit. This means your tax liability will be $0 next year. Find a way to minimize your tax withholdings to as close as $0 beginning January 2018. There is a box on W4 forms...
  5. S

    Guesses on "token of appreciation" for line waiters tweeted by Elon Musk

    Elon Musk himself said that supercharging will be "free forever" including the Model 3. He said this in some kind of event in Germany like 3 or so years ago. It is a fact as I have heard it with my own ears and have seen the video with my own eyes.
  6. S

    Model 3 Handover Event -- July 28, 2017

    One of the biggest events in recent tech history and Tesla decided to have it at midnight Eastern time. Might be one of the biggest mistakes of all time. I am on Central time, and even as one of the biggest Tesla enthusiasts, and I am going to sleep. No way I am waiting till 11pm for this.
  7. S

    "Tesla Isn't Innovative"

    The World's Most Innovative Companies Most innovative companies according to Forbes: 1. Tesla /thread
  8. S

    Predictions

    Can you please expand on what you mean by the "recent 5K battery upgrade?" Thanks
  9. S

    Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

    I am pretty sure you can claim 2 tax credits in 1 year. Unless, of course you don't have the tax liability needed to get it, since it is non-refundable...
  10. S

    Just one word - Insurance

    I paid $50/month for a P85...
  11. S

    When will Model 3 be available if you don't reserve?

    Good thing. For those (without priority) who haven't reserved yet, IMO there is no chance you get the car before 2019. Better chance you get in 2020 or later than 2018.
  12. S

    This is REALLY for RealZ the REAL Model 3!!! Or, maybe not...?

    Yes, speculation is fun. But seeing a new thread pop up every hour with a title "pictures of REAL model 3 leaked", only to find out that it is NOT the model 3, is not fun!
  13. S

    When will Model 3 be available if you don't reserve?

    I have a Leaf lease through January 2019. I reserved my model 3 at 11:20 today, got in line at 7:40. Will order highly optioned model 3 in Texas. Still worried I may not get it by the time my lease is up. Actually hope I get it a year before my lease is up. Or as soon as possible...
  14. S

    This is REALLY for RealZ the REAL Model 3!!! Or, maybe not...?

    Seriously, you guys need to take a breather. You all waited 10 years, and will have to wait another 2 more years to get the car. I think that you all can handle another 7 hours...? In the mean time do as I did, and go play 18 holes, spend some time with your family, and relax. Life is good. Get...
  15. S

    If You Want a 35k Model 3, You Will have to Wait

    Just curious, how do you guys think the deliveries will go?: a. Highly optioned West Coast, mid optioned West Coast, lowly optioned West Coast and then moving on further East; or b. Highly optioned West Coast followed by Highly optioned middle of country, highly optioned East Coast, before...
  16. S

    Thoughts on designing the Model 3

    Here are some absolute must haves for the model 3 design: 1. Ability to fit 3 (2 at a minimum) full size golf bags with 46" drivers in the trunk. 2. Move the charging port way up to the front of the car. The Model S has a terrible design with its charging port so far back with such a short...
  17. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    JA Solar Announces Third Quarter 2014 Results - MarketWatch JASO with some pretty good results this morning, up 8% pre market. Board authorized to buy back up to $90m in shares in the open market. They must know that the stock is undervalued. $90m will get them over 25% of outstanding shares...
  18. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    All solars kind of trade together and it really didn't matter which one you bought in 2014. There was some differentiation in stock movement in 2013, but 2014 is painting all solars with a similar brush, give or take. I never liked JKS, because they are a "cost" leader and that is not a...
  19. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    1. You are correct that they hedged $15m of the $20m loss and the net loss was only $5. For some reason they wrote "net foreign exchange loss" was $20m, but that number did not include the "hedging" offset; for that reason I missed the actual forex impact, which is only $5m or so loss. I take...
  20. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    I think that there was a few reasons for the decline: 1. CSIQ is completely incompetent in managing FOREX. It lost $20m on forex and this is not the first time it lost $20m. It seems to lose huge amounts on forex every other quarter. Currency hedging is not that hard to do, so investors lose...
  21. S

    What other tech stock to consider?

    If you are asking that question then most likely - no. IPO's are for the big wigs and investment banks, hedge funds, etc. Maybe some accredited investors are allowed in certain IPO's, but us regular retail folks do not get access to IPO's.
  22. S

    What other tech stock to consider?

    And I'd love to read your analysis on GTAT? Have you ever researched this company before? I would love to hear your take on it.
  23. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    Yes, I did say last week that most likely a handle will form. But that requires a 10%-15% pullback. That said, I don't believe in technical analysis anymore. Almost all of the movements are random and catalyst driven. So unless you have a CEO who decides to issue PR's based on TA, I doubt that...
  24. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Johan - I did not mean to imply that you will not have to charge the car at home at all, that the sun will be sufficient. Just meant to say that TSLA will be incorporating solar cells into glass and maybe even body of car some time in the future; at least that is my opinion. If you look at a...
  25. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    This is going off-topic, but I was referring to Damodaran's technical/academic expertise/understanding of how to build financial models. I am not saying that he is the best predictor of the future. So completely different definition of "most respected name in financial modeling". JC called him...
  26. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    What frustrates me more than anything is when somebody on the internet calls out a financial expert for not knowing what he is talking about, when ironically the person doing the calling out is actually the one who doesn't know what he or she is talking about. Examples: 1. JC calls out Aswatch...
  27. S

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    I had some SCTY and SPWR Deep ITM BCS's that I set up over 10 months ago and only needed a couple of months for LTCG. But GTAT crashed from $20+ to $13+ in less than a month, so I couldn't wait any longer. I cashed those deep ITM BCS's for about 80 cents on the dollar and will pay STCG; instead...
  28. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Thanks for running the numbers, so now we know what I am alluding to here. I would just point out that $50/kWh production cost is very ambitious since Elon has said that a battery is made up of $60-$80/kWh of raw materials. I would shoot for $80-$100/kWh cost and $150-$200/kWh installation cost...
  29. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    You are also underestimating the fact that TSLA is specifically building a $5b, 35GWh gigafactory to minimize costs as much as possible. Nobody else in the world is doing that, so competitor's costs will not be anywhere near as close to Tesla's. But even if they were, there will still be a huge...
  30. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    I disagree with your line of thinking: The battery storage market is a lot better business, because it doesn't require the huge infrastructure that building and servicing vehicles requires. And yes, TSLA will be able to charge 50%+ gross margins since they will be by far the lowest cost...
  31. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Samsung is charging that price for a 20-year lifespan. It will replace any bad cells over that time period, so there is some kind of warranty/service included in that price.
  32. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Higher margins (50% gross margins or more possible) and no service needed. No service center infrastructure, no superchargers, no hundreds of moving parts like in a car. Less repairs than a car. Samsung is selling storage units for Japanes solar farms at $963/kWh. You can do the math from...
  33. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    And still nobody realizes that Tesla's real opportunity is in the battery storage market in the energy industry...
  34. S

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Interesting quote from CS report: "Electric vehicles are inherently better than Internal Combustion (ICE) vehicles," said Gaives. "If Tesla can get to cost-parity with ICE and still offer $1,400-$2,500 per year fuel savings to the consumer, it won't be a fair fight." Read more...
  35. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    Good point on the cup. But doesn't this mean that a 10%-15% pullback is imminent to actually form the handle?
  36. S

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    It is really complicated and best to consult a tax advisor, since I am not 100% sure and may be giving bad information. But here is how I see it: First of all, if you sell $230's against your J15 $200 LEAPS, they are considered deep ITM and you will treated by the IRS as someone who just cashed...
  37. S

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    If you have LEAPS and want to take profits without paying gains, then yes you can sell higher strike calls against those LEAPS to collect cash and create a spread, but: 1. If you sell a deep ITM call against those LEAPS then you will be taxed on those gains anyway, since IRS considers selling...
  38. S

    Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

    Feel free to take this to the advanced options trading thread, but what pGo says is only half true: If you have LEAPS and want to take profits without paying gains, then yes you can sell higher strike calls against those LEAPS to collect cash and create a spread, but: 1. If you sell a deep ITM...
  39. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    The negativity will disappear once we hit the top two channels...
  40. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    My interpretation is that TSLA is at the top of its channel right now. Those two channels above it represent overbought/exuberant conditions and is a time when you should be selling, hedging, or maxing out on covered calls.
  41. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    Short term weeklies trading is like a jumpshot in basketball. You may hit a hot streak or you may go cold for stretches, or simply win some lose some...
  42. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    Not complaining, but I think we might see ATH today; in which case I will miss out on a multi-bagger. But I can't monitor my position today, so I need to sell quickly. As far as security goes, I really hope that they take care of this and be very proactive about it. I have a feeling that a...
  43. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    Way too busy in life lately. I will try to come back and post here more often in the future. Miss this place and the people here. TSLA will cross $260 today it seems for sure, unless market has huge hiccup. Once that breaks, shorts might continue scrambling. I really don't know anymore...
  44. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    I have often said this in the past, but it appears to me that some analysts (especially DB) use technical analysis to decide when to issue a new bullish or bearish research report. In this case TSLA is about to break out of a pattern, so a great time to upgrade the stock...
  45. S

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    A special message for the guy who would break California into 6 states - LA Times On his website, Six Californias, Draper writes, “California needs a reboot. Our public schools have gone from the top in the nation to 47th. We are ranked 50th out of 50 for the worst business climate in the...
  46. S

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    Exactly this. I was making a general observation. There have been people suggesting the Elon should make Texas believe that they are in the running just to screw with them and then pull the plug last minute on Texas.
  47. S

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    Tesla is not making a decision to "benefit a state". They are making a decision to benefit themselves. Texas is an extremely business friendly state, whereas California for example is not (and that is why it wasn't mentioned as a candidate initially). If Texas wins it is because it is good...
  48. S

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    I think Texas should win, because it is the best state to do business in; or very close to the best. If none of the states gave any incentives to Tesla then Texas would win without a doubt and California would lose to 49 other states. There was an article today that ranked California as the...
  49. S

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    More on Texas: http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2014/07/10/tesla-eyeing-700-acres-in-southern-dallas-for-5b.html?ana=twt
  50. S

    What other tech stock to consider?

    I posted this in the SCTY thread, but it belongs here, so I copied and pasted it (without editing): As far as GTAT (sorry for going off topic for a second here), I will try to write something up in the "other investments" thread, but there is so much to write about. In the mean time, I...