Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[c041v]

Shame about SPWR and CSIQ, and the indsutry as a whole today. The only silver lining was that I was able to buy back my covered calls for next to nil. I figured it was a good play now as there was still 2 weeks of time left.

Even so, this is picking up flattened pennies behind the steam roller.

 

[sleepyhead]

Solar stocks are severely undervalued right now.

This might end up being a buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Disclaimer: all bets are off in a bear market, but I have a feeling that the bull market will resume with vigor by the second half of the year. The turnaround can start any day now.

 

[clmason]

Thoughts on JASO price action today?

 

[ckessel]

Thoughts on JASO price action today?

It's very painful?

JASO (and SPWR and others for that matter) have driven me nuts. TSLA, even if you count from its previous ATH back in Oct, has performed better in the last 6 months than most all the solars with a couple notable exceptions like CSIQ.

I believe in solar and I'd wanted to diversify so I won't be dropping my positions, but I definitely switched over many months too soon.

 

[sleepyhead]

Thoughts on JASO price action today?

It closed right at its 200 day SMA at $9.51, so there is hope that we hit significant resistance.

There was also a bid for over 500k shares at $9.50, so someone has seen enough.

 

[AlMc]

It closed right at its 200 day SMA at $9.51, so there is hope that we hit significant resistance.

There was also a bid for over 500k shares at $9.50, so someone has seen enough.

When I saw that I immediately thought it was you!:wink:

 

[ckessel]

JASO's ability to peg right at $10 after the news today is a little eerie. Maybe some giant order at the $10 limit has been scooping up shares all day?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

JASO's ability to peg right at $10 after the news today is a little eerie. Maybe some giant order at the $10 limit has been scooping up shares all day?

There are close to 1M shares being sold at $10 (930300 right now that I see).

 

[ckessel]

Man, JASO gave back much of its gain from yesterday. I thought I had a prayer of the Aprils I bought a couple months back getting close to break even.

 

[FluxCap]

On a very bleak day, here perhaps is a ray of sunshine from my favorite economist:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/04/15/rising-sun/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto

Check out this chart:

 

[ckessel]

Man, JASO gave back much of its gain from yesterday. I thought I had a prayer of the Aprils I bought a couple months back getting close to break even.

I guess JASO is just tracking an amplified NASDAQ rather than the movement being related to yesterday's gains.

 

[Citizen-T]

Sorry if this has already been linked here, it is a few months old and I don't follow this thread that closely. I just watched this last night and found it to be one of the most concise but straight-forward and honest discussions I've seen about the solar industry. Most of the info in the presentation portion won't be anything new to a lot of you, but is a great primer to anyone in the early stages of learning about the space.

Also, after the beating solar has taken recently, I think it might serve as a good reminder for why you own these stocks.

Residential Solar: Is the Market Ready to Explode? - YouTube

 

[sleepyhead]

Sorry if this has already been linked here, it is a few months old and I don't follow this thread that closely. I just watched this last night and found it to be one of the most concise but straight-forward and honest discussions I've seen about the solar industry. Most of the info in the presentation portion won't be anything new to a lot of you, but is a great primer to anyone in the early stages of learning about the space.

Also, after the beating solar has taken recently, I think it might serve as a good reminder for why you own these stocks.

Residential Solar: Is the Market Ready to Explode? - YouTube

Thanks for the link. It is worth watching the whole 2 hours.

Around the 8:30 mark, you can see a chart comparing residential solar in US vs. Germany, close to $5 vs. close to $2 respectively. Also talks about the goal of getting to $1.50/W installed in the US.

Around the 1:00:00 - 1:10:00 mark, the Admirals Bank guy basically says that buying a system is much better than leasing and that they are offering 3%-5% interest rates on solar loans, so that you don't need to have any money down.

 

[ggies07]

Residential Solar: Is the Market Ready to Explode? - YouTube

That was a great vid, thanks! I really liked this comment and thought it applies to Tesla and the EV market as well:

"Legislatively we are so out-gunned...... The way this industry succeeds is not through policy, it's through product."

 

[sleepyhead]

Hearing Geoinvesting Says JA Solar, Tesla to Partner on Solar Charging Station in Shanghai

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/04/...r-on-solar-charging-station-in-#ixzz2zX78sTBc

Of course Tesla is going to partner with the best

 

[FluxCap]

Hearing Geoinvesting Says JA Solar, Tesla to Partner on Solar Charging Station in Shanghai

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/04/...r-on-solar-charging-station-in-#ixzz2zX78sTBc

Of course Tesla is going to partner with the best

Holy crap, way to go!

 

[KYCurry]

Hearing Geoinvesting Says JA Solar, Tesla to Partner on Solar Charging Station in Shanghai

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/04/...r-on-solar-charging-station-in-#ixzz2zX78sTBc

Of course Tesla is going to partner with the best

They probably do like the rest of us and just go by what you say.
Hey, it is more than one station, right?

 

[sleepyhead]

They probably do like the rest of us and just go by what you say.
Hey, it is more than one station, right?

Here is the source article:

特斯拉æºæ‰‹æ™¶æ¾³å¤ªé˜³èƒ½åœ¨ä¸Šæµ·æµ¦ä¸œå»ºå¤ªé˜³èƒ½å……电站_è´¢ç»é¢‘é“_一财网

streetinsider.com has picked up on it too:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Rumors/Tesla+Motors+%28TSLA%29+and+JA+Solar+%28JASO%29+Building+Charging+Stations+in+Shanghai/9394882.html


I don't think that this will have a big direct financial impact on JA Solar's financials. But the free PR can have a huge effect on JA's brand awareness and is great marketing.

JA Solar (from everything I have read) is the leader in panel efficiency in China, but more importantly makes the highest quality panels. They brag that their cells are "the best" and aren't afraid to say it in public (I was just watching a video yesterday where the JASO guy, who was sitting right next to the JKS guy, said that "everyone knows that our cells are the best," and the JKS guy didn't even flinch).

Another thing that makes JASO stand out is that they prefer to make everything in house to keep an eye on quality control. They want their panels to produce the most electricity over the 25 year period with minimal failures. Their goal is to lower levelized cost of electricity "LCOE" and not to simply minimize dollar per watt peak cost. Other Chinese solar companies do a ton of outsourcing, whether it be for module assembly or cell purchases.

For obvious reasons Tesla had to go with a local solar company to supply panels and install them. I would guess that they went with JASO, because they wanted the highest quality panels to minimize the chance of downtime due to panel failure; and Tesla can also install more watts with higher efficiency panels from JASO. A supercharger station breaking down is just as bad as a Model S breaking down.

I think that this is great news for JASO, because it is starting to prove my investment thesis in this company: that highest quality, highest efficiency panels at a reasonable cost will rule the market, which will slowly move away from power plants into distributed generation. Companies can get away with lower efficiency products for now, because it doesn't really matter too much in the power plant market. But DG is the future and efficiency will rule that market.

 

[kenliles]

I think that this is great news for JASO, because it is starting to prove my investment thesis in this company: that highest quality, highest efficiency panels at a reasonable cost will rule the market, which will slowly move away from power plants into distributed generation. Companies can get away with lower efficiency products for now, because it doesn't really matter too much in the power plant market. But DG is the future and efficiency will rule that market.

Another (small)factor to consider- whatever tariffs or min-price trade model get implemented, the relative impact will be less for those producing higher efficiency/longevity panels, since the value/panel will be higher and the price differentials to the cheaper panels will diminish. The net will add to the value of the quality/efficient producer imo.

 

[InTheShadows]

Here is the source article:

特斯拉æºæ‰‹æ™¶æ¾³å¤ªé˜³èƒ½åœ¨ä¸Šæµ·æµ¦ä¸œå»ºå¤ªé˜³èƒ½å……电站_è´¢ç»é¢‘é“_一财网

streetinsider.com has picked up on it too:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Rumors/Tesla+Motors+%28TSLA%29+and+JA+Solar+%28JASO%29+Building+Charging+Stations+in+Shanghai/9394882.html


I don't think that this will have a big direct financial impact on JA Solar's financials. But the free PR can have a huge effect on JA's brand awareness and is great marketing.

JA Solar (from everything I have read) is the leader in panel efficiency in China, but more importantly makes the highest quality panels. They brag that their cells are "the best" and aren't afraid to say it in public (I was just watching a video yesterday where the JASO guy, who was sitting right next to the JKS guy, said that "everyone knows that our cells are the best," and the JKS guy didn't even flinch).

Another thing that makes JASO stand out is that they prefer to make everything in house to keep an eye on quality control. They want their panels to produce the most electricity over the 25 year period with minimal failures. Their goal is to lower levelized cost of electricity "LCOE" and not to simply minimize dollar per watt peak cost. Other Chinese solar companies do a ton of outsourcing, whether it be for module assembly or cell purchases.

For obvious reasons Tesla had to go with a local solar company to supply panels and install them. I would guess that they went with JASO, because they wanted the highest quality panels to minimize the chance of downtime due to panel failure; and Tesla can also install more watts with higher efficiency panels from JASO. A supercharger station breaking down is just as bad as a Model S breaking down.

I think that this is great news for JASO, because it is starting to prove my investment thesis in this company: that highest quality, highest efficiency panels at a reasonable cost will rule the market, which will slowly move away from power plants into distributed generation. Companies can get away with lower efficiency products for now, because it doesn't really matter too much in the power plant market. But DG is the future and efficiency will rule that market.

I think Your reading too deeply into this decision. IMO Tesla execs frequent this forum and just piggybacked off of your research.