Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[palmer_md]

I know that you might be thinking that a couple hundred or thousand shares may not make a difference, but it really does. If you get a 100 people to buy 1000 shares, then it really puts a big dent into the share supply count and the stock will move up.

I myslef own a 5-digit number of shares in JASO myself, and I don't have a lot of buying power at all relative to Wall St. or even some of the people on this forum. But if there was only a couple thousand people on this planet (out of 7b+) that thought like me and bought the same amount of shares that I have, then we would own the entire supply of JASO stock. This in turn would make the stock price go through the roof.

I've locked up 10k shares from the traders. So after you and I and cO41v we now only need 79 more people to buy the 1000 shares. Who's with us?

It does not seem to have settled anything. In the month that has passed since I significantly increased my position to where I am now, it has become far more volatile in price swings, and recently in an unfavorable direction. No worry, I'm in for the long haul. I see the value in several of these solar stocks, even if the big players don't see it yet.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well I bought 200 shares today. Decided to seriously shuffle up and move around the shares. I had a ton of LEAPs that were far out of the money for both CSIQ, JASO and SPWR. Sold most of the very high strikes for 2015 and 2016 and instead bought decently ITM LEAPs to replace them + stock. So now have 100 SPWR, 200 JASO and a bunch of $8 2015/16 calls as well as CSIQ $25, SPWR $22, $25 etc. Once they recover somewhat I will sell the rest of the high strike calls to free up cash as I've decided I want to keep around 20% in cash for buying opportunities. Anyway, today in this moving game I ended up dipping a bit into margin (am now -$625) so likely my shares they can still short, but I plan to rectify that tomorrow or next week. I'm hoping that once I don't use margin the shares cannot be sold out for shorting anymore and they're required to buy them back?

 

[AlMc]

I did not buy any shares today but I would qualify for the 'group of 100' based on my current share holdings. I sold 1/4 of my shares to buy J15/J16 LEAPS. So I guess I am playing for both teams.................

 

[kenliles]

I did not buy any shares today but I would qualify for the 'group of 100' based on my current share holdings. I sold 1/4 of my shares to buy J15/J16 LEAPS. So I guess I am playing for both teams.................

atta-boy
me too

 

[FluxCap]

If you get a 100 people to buy 1000 shares, then it really puts a big dent into the share supply count and the stock will move up.

I'm hoping to join The Gang of 100 sometime soon.

 

[Lessmog]

Still in the high 3-figures.

 

[772]

I'm hoping to join The Gang of 100 sometime soon.

me too

 

[pz1975]

I've got about 2,000 shares of JASO and a lot of LEAPS contracts. I like to keep a balance personally although my ratio is favoring LEAPS currently. An advantage of having a core set of shares is it allows you to sell covered calls against them when the price is high. You can sell them against LEAPS too but it is less complicated to just let the shares be called away should the calls expire ITM.

 

[AlMc]

My wife just joined the club: bought 1,000 shares AH :wink:

 

[kenliles]

I've got about 2,000 shares of JASO and a lot of LEAPS contracts. I like to keep a balance personally although my ratio is favoring LEAPS currently. An advantage of having a core set of shares is it allows you to sell covered calls against them when the price is high. You can sell them against LEAPS too but it is less complicated to just let the shares be called away should the calls expire ITM.

true- it also provides a base for conversion to LEAPS on price drops if that suits your style- then reconvert to stock on ups- helps to cushion the blows

I'm carrying an equivalent Delta tracking of 5,000 shares equivalent.
(my desperate attempt to just be-long... )

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't want to give the false impression that accumulating 100k shares is enough to move the stock. What I was trying to say is that if all JASO longs accumulate JASO shares instead of options then it would put significant upside pressure on the stock. But if you buy short term call options instead, then the exact opposite happens and it puts downward pressure on the stock price. Let me explain:

Going into Q4 ER JASO was at $11.42; it was options expiration week and there was a boatload of call options open at the $10, $11 range, with max pain at $11. JASO then had a blowout ER and the stock traded above $14 (up 20%) during pre-market, and above $13 during market hours. By the end of the week the market makers brought the stock down to $11.06 to finish at max pain.

This should never happen after a blow-out ER, but it did because the market makers can!

I have a feeling that the TMC/TCI crowd was responsible for the vast majority of call options, because people here tend to favor options over shares for some reason. If people spent the same amount of money on shares that they did on options then the stock would have been going up instead of down.

Every time you buy short term call options, you are not doing anything to push the stock price up and are giving the market makers an incentive to push the price down.

If you want to make money in solar then buy shares; it is extremely hard to make money using options as I have learned from my own experience. But all of my stock-only portfolios are booming from solar investments.

 

[pz1975]

I agree with everything you say about stock movements to push towards max pain. I am skeptical about us (TMC/TCI) accounting for the 'vast majority' of JASO call options in March, however. I remember there being in the neighborhood of 30-40K open interest calls. Assuming an average cost of $.50-1.00 per contract (being conservative here), that would mean a total $1.5-4 million invested in these. I am sure we account for a decent % of that, but a vast majority would mean we had a collective $1-2 million invested just in those March JASO call options.

Not trying to call you out as your contributions here and TMC are invaluable but I just want to make a point that our cumulative influence on the market in terms of actual investing $ is probably minimal. Influence on sentiment and understanding is definitely more substantial, however, thanks to great contributions by many members.

 

[AlMc]

Sleepyhead: I don't think any of us feel that if we get 100 people to buy 1,000 shares of JASO that we will really move the stock price to any great degree. I think it more shows solidarity in our respect for yours, and others, analysis in a good company in a potentially growing sector whose stock is undervalued and a good long term investment.

 

[sleepyhead]

I agree with everything you say about stock movements to push towards max pain. I am skeptical about us (TMC/TCI) accounting for the 'vast majority' of JASO call options in March, however. I remember there being in the neighborhood of 30-40K open interest calls. Assuming an average cost of $.50-1.00 per contract (being conservative here), that would mean a total $1.5-4 million invested in these. I am sure we account for a decent % of that, but a vast majority would mean we had a collective $1-2 million invested just in those March JASO call options.

Not trying to call you out as your contributions here and TMC are invaluable but I just want to make a point that our cumulative influence on the market in terms of actual investing $ is probably minimal. Influence on sentiment and understanding is definitely more substantial, however, thanks to great contributions by many members.

I personally know about 2 or 3 people that accounted for about 2,000 of those option contracts, so it is not hard to imagine that all of us as a whole probably had a good chunk of open call options, since I only see people posting about what options they bought in solar (or worse, which ones lost them money), and never about buying shares. Also most of those March call options were opened when JASO was in the $9 range, so they were going for something closer to $0.20 than $1; for $0.20 you can buy 10k options for only $200k. But this is not the point of the my post.

I did not mean to imply that we here are at fault. I just don't like to see so many TMC'ers buying waaaaay deep OTM options that are set to expire less than 3 months from now only to see them lose money. Because the chances are that you are going to lose money more times than not.

- - - Updated - - -

Sleepyhead: I don't think any of us feel that if we get 100 people to buy 1,000 shares of JASO that we will really move the stock price to any great degree. I think it more shows solidarity in our respect for yours, and others, analysis in a good company in a potentially growing sector whose stock is undervalued and a good long term investment.

I didn't think that anyone thought that way. Just wanted to point it out in case there was someone who did understand it that way, since that is what my post may have sounded like.

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm guilty of not owning one share of solar stock. However I also own very little otm leaps. I had been buying ATM leaps. However I see your theory and understand your strategy completely.

 

[tigerade]

What do you guys think about OPOWER? It's a company that makes energy efficiency software for utility companies. They just had their IPO on Friday.

How Latest IPO Darling Opower Scored Where Google, Microsoft Failed - Venture Capital Dispatch - WSJ

Opower: using smiley faces and peer pressure to save the planet.

Opower

 

[Ocelot]

What do you guys think about OPOWER? It's a company that makes energy efficiency software for utility companies. They just had their IPO on Friday.

How Latest IPO Darling Opower Scored Where Google, Microsoft Failed - Venture Capital Dispatch - WSJ

Opower: using smiley faces and peer pressure to save the planet.

Opower

Never heard of them, so thanks for the links.

 

[hershey101]

Any idea on why CSIQ is down to $28!?

 

[killer_model_s]

Coming full circle: Lawsuit on Behalf of Investors in SolarCity Corp (SCTY) Announced by Shareholders Foundation - Yahoo Finance

This is what some of the $SCTY critics have been alluding to.

 

[sleepyhead]

Coming full circle: Lawsuit on Behalf of Investors in SolarCity Corp (SCTY) Announced by Shareholders Foundation - Yahoo Finance

This is what some of the $SCTY critics have been alluding to.

I hate to come in and have to say "I told you so" because I know that a lot of my TMC friends have SCTY in their portfolio and my once extremely deep ITM bull call spreads are now at risk of going OTM.

This is one of many, many risks that I pointed out that can affect SolarCity and SCTY. There are still many more risks on the radar that may or may not materialize in the future.

I tried pointing out these risks so that you guys can make better investment decisions, but instead got attacked by a few members here that seemingly joined the forum only to attack me and my opinions on SCTY.

Like I said, I am long SCTY and have no short positions in the stock at all, so I don't have any agenda to push it down or scare people away from the stock. Just trying to help my TMC friends make more informed investment decisions.

SCTY may turn out to be a great stock and this may as well turn out to be a great buying opportunity, but if another one of those risks on my radar materialize in the near future then the stock can get pummeled even more. I have no reason to believe that this will happen, but with so many risks on the horizon, one may always jump out of left field when least expected.

SCTY is just way too risky for my liking and doesn't fit my investment profile at all. Like I said, if it goes back into the $20's then I will happily buy a lot of stock - that is of course if I still have buying power left

Happy investing to all and best of luck!