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  1. Mario Kadastik

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    One thing ai don’t see you guys discussing much, but didn’t Tesla monetize a lot of the SCTY install base future revenues into a finance instrument that they sold through some tax break mechanism to corporations? I have no clue how much of the initial deployment base they monetized this way, but...
  2. Mario Kadastik

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    IB newsfeed is claiming -0.48 as the consensus... weird, hard to find what the line is actually that it's compared to...
  3. Mario Kadastik

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    So with analyst estimate being ca -0.4 non-gaap loss and ca 6.4B revenue it seems to look that they are close to the local consensus here with the more realistic ones being a slight miss? Unless TSLA does something interesting for the S&P inclusion?
  4. Mario Kadastik

    Service and communication (out of main)

    Well just a few datapoints. As I was on a roadtrip the past two weeks when I arrived in Stockholm after overnight ferry the GPS didn't reset to the new location. I ended up calling roadside 3x over 28h to get it resolved. The first try took 45 min, the second 34 min and the third 50 min until I...
  5. Mario Kadastik

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Assuming positive FCF going forward and the fact that they have ~4B cash as of this cap raise, then I don't see an issue :) Their obligations are 2.9B so assuming net FCF over the entire period were 0 it'd leave them at a paltry 1.1B cash, but if the FCF is positive and varies between 100-500M...
  6. Mario Kadastik

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Seems you almost got it. ER is on 24th, posted on 23rd so less than 48h before the report is out ;)
  7. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    TSLA just confirmed a voluntary request by DoJ, no subpeona.
  8. Mario Kadastik

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Probably related to the brand new CAO from Seagate getting cold feet after the whole media attention. Tesla (TSLA) stock falls after Chief Accounting Officer resigns for strange reason
  9. Mario Kadastik

    Model S REST API

    You have to add the toien as argument to teslams.all call in addition to username and password, it seems this addition wasn’t added to all examples, streaming for one didn’t, but look teslacmd.js or others for syntax
  10. Mario Kadastik

    Model S REST API

    I got around it temporarily with using token authentication instead. In the latest release of teslams thw code supports also that instead user and pass you give token. I used teslajson to authenticate myself and print out the token I got, then used said token in teslams and it works, seems the...
  11. Mario Kadastik

    Browser even worse? Google broken?

    Browser is f***ed for a while now, basic html stuff like <select> doesn’t work anymore, taps trigger js functions twice etc.
  12. Mario Kadastik

    Model S REST API

    It’s been years now, does anyone know of a Tesla API implememtation in python that includes the streaming implememtation? teslajson seems to work with the new encoding stuff, but pytesla that claims streaming support does not (same oauth token error as node/teslams).
  13. Mario Kadastik

    Newbie Options Trading

    What’s the point? You gain about 1140 total ash, but lock up tons of more margin for 1.5y. Is that actually a useful yield?
  14. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Elon was quite clear that those who have bought EAP+FSD will get it for free only.
  15. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Oh and I’ve declared my account as investment account that is actually linked directly to my IB account so I enjoy low transaction fees and no short term capital gains tax ;)
  16. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    For the discussions on where to move for tax reasons how about Estonia? We have something called investment account, you only need to declare the cash in/out transactions each year. All stock/derivatives transactions are irrelevant and you can trade to your delight. You only pay income tax on...
  17. Mario Kadastik

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    Varying, but majority was 307.5/327.5 spread that I had sold just before Q2 ER and considered quite safe, other bunch was 310/330 that I sold around 350 region after ER. On Thursday TSLA closed around 335 and I was contemplating rolling the 310/330, but was out playing snooker and didn’t...
  18. Mario Kadastik

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    Well selling OTM put spreads has backfired hard on this 1.5 week drop of >100... Lost a bunch on Friday where they dropped from OTM to ITM in a gap down and while I managed to move some further out I'm pretty maxed out with margin now as most spreads are ITM and the call spreads I picked up on...
  19. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    What has me worried is could this be a perfect storm created by Big Oil to kill Tesla more effectively than anything else? Saudis court Elon for a while, he refuses, they then gobble up shares running up the stock price somewhat as well. Then they manage to convince Elon enough that Elon goes...
  20. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Who do you think will supply the electric motors for the moving platforms? :D
  21. Mario Kadastik

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Found on the internet, thought it's hilarious so sharing here ;) Don't really know the source.
  22. Mario Kadastik

    Short Sellers Sue Musk

    No he didn't. He said he's considering taking it private at 420 and funding is secured (he has sources of funding that he deems sufficient to make the deal happen). Your last straw is fraud hence this weird clinging to it, but no fraud has been committed. Read Elon's blog post and you'll...
  23. Mario Kadastik

    Short Sellers Sue Musk

    Well its up to the shorts to PROVE that it isn't secured. How they are going to do it beats me ;) It's their own problem that they didn't listen to Elon when he gave multiple warnings that it's not wise to be short Tesla (he already knew that a buyout plan was brewing in the back of his mind).
  24. Mario Kadastik

    Short Sellers Sue Musk

    Funding secured means he has funders who back his bid for going private. A ballpark measure of their capital is enough for Elon to claim funding secured. At the same time, this is just the start of negotiations with the board so it's early enough that there absolutely no need to disclose the...
  25. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Don't take so seriously, probably Elon tongue in cheek answer ;)
  26. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Can people PLEASE move non market action discussions to their respective threads. There are about ten threads about various subtopics of IRA, accredited, sec action etc etc. This thread is moving at such a pace with 80% being the same discussions and hypothesis rehashed every 3-5 pages that it’s...
  27. Mario Kadastik

    Short Sellers Sue Musk

    What is proper market notification? Tesla has stated tomSEC in 2013 that Elon8s twitter is an official channel of communication. It has 22M followers and the news was instantly disseminated throughout the investment community. There is no more direct way to inform all interested parties. At...
  28. Mario Kadastik

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    It can also be that considering that the prince is vegan, drives a Tesla and is planning a huge solar farm, then the fund is starting to diversify into alternative energy products and Tesla is the obvious one. Doesn't have to be hostile takeover. It's kinda like Norway where the big wealth fund...
  29. Mario Kadastik

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    I wouldn't be so heavily invested in Tesla (have a company that depends 100% on Tesla as we are a rental/taxi business exclusive to Teslas). Also, I've been following Elon for a decade. If he's actually an evil fraudster then he's failing spectacularly at being an evil fraudster. Both SpaceX and...
  30. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I have a hard time understanding why the finance media and shorts can't fathom that it doesn't need to be big banks and big corporations that buy out TSLA. If it's 30-40B that's needed, that's about 2-4 private investors with enough capital (Larry, Sergei etc). Elon would give 3-4 board seats...
  31. Mario Kadastik

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Elon never wanted Tesla to be public and he's been thinking about taking it private many many times over the years. Tesla needed to be public to survive due to need to raise capital etc, but it doesn't need to do that anymore. It's pretty much the last moment he can take the company back private...
  32. Mario Kadastik

    Elon hints he'll buy back shares and "taking Tesla private"

    Well Elon might have had that in mind when he picked him and he did approach the board a week ago with the motivation and financing outline and the board has been meeting many times since to do the diligence.
  33. Mario Kadastik

    Elon hints he'll buy back shares and "taking Tesla private"

    Yes, during delisting they have to return all the shares of stock they have loaned. This means that if they don't do, then their broker will have to independent on what it costs. They are the ones who gave the shares that belonged to someone else.
  34. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    You are looking at pure calls, but why not look at call spreads? If you also sell a 420 call at the same expiration, then that reduces your initial purchase cost of the lower leg and makes for a different profitability calculation. If you want to keep the shares and assume that 420 is the final...
  35. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Because of leverage. I bought 360-420 and 370-420 call spreads. First after Elon tweeted and second when market resumed trading. Got them for 23.5 both. Yes, the entry is higher than buying stock outright, but I put down 4.7k and if the deal happens will get 11k. That’s about 180% gain. Had I...
  36. Mario Kadastik

    Elon hints he'll buy back shares and "taking Tesla private"

    Answered in another thread alreayd, but yes once the sale is confirmed the option will lose all time value and is just real value i.e. 20.
  37. Mario Kadastik

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    Options are a contract for purchase/sale at a date and at a price. That's all. If you speculate on them that's your gambling. Once a buyout offer comes and is confirmed the options will behave as if it's expiration date and stock price is the buyout price. You lose all time value.
  38. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    For those asking about options. Options are a contract that gives you the right/requirement to buy/sell stock at a certain price. The US options also allow early exercise. This means that options that are with a strike price below 420 can at any time exercise them and get shares assigned that...
  39. Mario Kadastik

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Sooo.... Unless he really meant it this could alert SEC...
  40. Mario Kadastik

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think you forget that about hakf of the reservations are outside US and still at deposit level ;)
  41. Mario Kadastik

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    Rolling after a raise is usually reasonable to do with some % of the cash. So let's say you buy a $300 call for $20, stock rises to 350 you sell the call for $65 and reopen two new positions $20 each. Now you've pocketed $25 (x100), which is $5 more than your initial investment and you've opened...
  42. Mario Kadastik

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Even with raised production I doubt the hangover from Q3 will be as large as Q2 with the 200k target was. So >10k in transit is unlikely, more likely it’ll drop a pinch, but not much. This means that effectively we can count every produced car as delivered, so I’d say too that 50k is...
  43. Mario Kadastik

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    And considering the history I think the only shot is Q2 '18 - Q1 '19 that total 4Q positive and the last 3 are + quarters. Hence addition would be in Q2 '19.
  44. Mario Kadastik

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Sorry to disappoint you, but I did test drive the iPace. The model I drove was the fully loaded with all options version. Those “extensive luxury” options amount to something in between standard and premium interior options of the Model X. It lost in all the premium aspects to my non-P premium...
  45. Mario Kadastik

    Doxxing discussion out of Market Action

    You didn't reply to me how can I get justice served through the current legal system...
  46. Mario Kadastik

    Doxxing discussion out of Market Action

    Tell me how I, an investor in TSLA and therefore impacted by this miscreant Fossi can sue him when I'm in Estonia, he's in the US. How would that work out? I go to the local police here in Estonia and make a claim of an internet anonymous guy writing libel or slander about a company (both in US)...
  47. Mario Kadastik

    Doxxing discussion out of Market Action

    I am sorry, but a person who knowingly and willfully tries to destroy something that you have invested in and does this with malice has zero right to protection of his/her comforts in my mind. They deserve to be ousted and made public. This kind of slander that he's been spewing is basically...
  48. Mario Kadastik

    Stanphyl Capital and Mark Spiegel

    As DaveT posted in his megathread car purchases these days are actually steered by public opinion a lot. This means that this hate campaign will have an impact at one point or another on Teslas customer base and therefore demand. Right now it's relatively little risk as there's a ton of...
  49. Mario Kadastik

    Production vs. Accepted Deliveries on M3

    The easy answer is that if they had a problem with US demand they'd open up configuration for the rest of the world and start shipping there. We'd take them ;)
  50. Mario Kadastik

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    Such things don't necessarily hold past big corporate events like earnings reports. But yes, barring major news the channel should indicate upwards movement. This means probably that if Q2 isn't extremely bad and the Q3 outlook of +EPS and +CF is kept with production reported as humming along...