TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wipster]

Sorry. Eight and a half inches (George Stephenson)

Don't I wish...

 

[Unpilot]

Don't I wish...

I see what you did there...

 

[Causalien]

They're most likely not even running the chips at full potential performance yet as usually the first couple of iterations of your design have issues with yield, and it takes a couple of respins to nail it. Though I wouldn't expect a doubling or anything here, just another 5-20%.

As for switching from ARM to x86, I wouldn't bet on it. Maybe from ARM (cheap licensing) to RISC-V (zero cost licensing), but going to x86 doesn't make a lot of sense when you're already building custom silicon. They can put the ARM or RISC-V core(s) on the ASIC and eliminate both the Parker SoC and Pascal GPU, but if they go x86 they still must have two separate devices (or pay even more money for custom silicon from AMD with NN logic embedded into an x86 SoC - not impossible but likely not the optimal solution here). Plus most likely ARM or RISC-V have more than enough performance for the task of keeping the NNs fed and operating, x86 is overkill.

The x86 CPU on the newer AP HW cars I believe is running the UI/UX, not the AP decision making. I think that's still happening on the Parker SoC. It's possible that Parker isn't enough for FSD decision making, but that doesn't mean they would move to x86, you can get higher performing ARM cores and they may move that into the NN ASIC itself anyways.

The arm core will be needed to handle normal looping and higher function logics (the basics needed to run a firmware) like calling a function, memory addressing etc. So some type of general purpose core has to be there. From what I've read of the Nvidia presentation, the Parker SoC is used for displaying what the autopilot is seeing as well as these higher functions. When the NN is at its infancy, the display of what the NN is doing is important. The rest of the discreet GPU is most likely used for preprocessing the image to find objects, orientation, angles with the tensor cores programmed for the Neural Net decision making.

Tsla can go ahead and engineer their own general purpose cpu core, Peter certainly has the know how to do it since he comes from the Apple chip design team. However, that's another 2~3 years of testing and a lot more complicated than the Neural network chip. I wouldn't be surprised if they just stick to licensing Arm core inside their ASIC as a black box and later swap it out with their CPU design once the design team is done with the Neural Network chip.

And I agree x86 is just overkill for this. Maybe for the infotainment system so people can play games.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The arm core will be needed to handle normal looping and higher function logics (the basics needed to run a firmware) like calling a function, memory addressing etc. So some type of general purpose core has to be there. From what I've read of the Nvidia presentation, the Parker SoC is used for displaying what the autopilot is seeing as well as these higher functions. When the NN is at its infancy, the display of what the NN is doing is important. The rest of the discreet GPU is most likely used for preprocessing the image to find objects, orientation, angles with the tensor cores programmed for the Neural Net decision making.

Tsla can go ahead and engineer their own general purpose cpu core, Peter certainly has the know how to do it since he comes from the Apple chip design team. However, that's another 2~3 years of testing and a lot more complicated than the Neural network chip. I wouldn't be surprised if they just stick to licensing Arm core inside their ASIC as a black box and later swap it out with their CPU design once the design team is done with the Neural Network chip.

And I agree x86 is just overkill for this. Maybe for the infotainment system so people can play games.

Don't assume anything from Nvidia presentations of DrivePX and related systems to have any bearing on how Tesla is doing things, that only applies to using Nvidia's software/hardware solutions and even though Tesla is using Nvidia hardware currently, they're doing it their own way. Since the screens run on separate SoCs they can potentially render all the feedback there and not on the AP SoC, so the AP SoC doesn't have any need for any GPU resources at all (Parker has a small GPU in it) if the image input processing functionality can be handled in the ASIC.

They were using Tegra SoCs (Parker is a newer variant in the Tegra lineup) for the displays for some time, but the same SoC is unlikely to make AP decisions as well as run the display, or we'd be having real problems when your display crashes and reboots not just inconvenience. I know the newer HW revisions switched to using Intel x86 somewhere but that was a flavor of SoC that included the cellular modem I think, so I'm not entirely sure if it also runs the display or merely is a baseband SoC.

The general purpose core for AP, whether it be ARM, RISC-V, or x86, doesn't have to be built into the ASIC, they could keep using Parker SoC to do that and then the ASIC would just replace the Pascal GPUs. However I think it would make the most sense to combine them and put an ARM SoC in the same silicon as the ASIC.

 

[dc_h]

Reply in a different thread:
Tesla Autonomous Driving H/W

Makes me think they should create a subsidiary to partner with Nvidia to build specialized chips and code for driving. It would be a more bet mill. They could keep it a private 50/50 partnership or potentially sell a partial stake to invest back in the business. This could be worth more than Mobileye and Tesla would still have a lead with system integration. This could provide a market value of fsd and let Tesla focus on their other market advantage in power supply, motors, controls and DESIGN!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gentlemen, this is NOT the place for discussion on AI or computer chips. Please move your conversation to the PREVIOUSLY suggested appropriate place:

Tesla Autonomous Driving H/W

People are LEAVING this forum because of the constant off-topic posts and replies.

MARKET ACTION, please.

 

[dc_h]

umm. who cares?

and no, we don’t think it would be good for tesla to go through a bankruptcy like gm did. how about you? maybe you should go through a bankruptcy. do you think that would be good? great idea. we should all try int.
stop trying to spread your nonsense propaganda

I think Elon was pissed about covering the flying Tesla. Enough people covering every accident and idiot driver.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA volume continued its downward trend today with 5.25 M shares traded. Interday SP range also narrowed slightly to $6.71 or 2.25% of the low. Summary stats in the table below cover period May-07-2015 to today. Data from NASDAQ.

 

[ZachShahan]

TSLA volume continued its downward trend today with 5.25 M shares traded. Interday SP range also narrowed slightly to $6.71 or 2.25% of the low. Summary stats in the table below cover period May-07-2015 to today. Data from NASDAQ.

View attachment 330826

As someone else noted several pages up, it seems whenever there isn't any big news for a few days, there's a slow drop. Any serious explanation for this? People just being nervous and impatient? Shorts pushing price down?

I feel like an analyst upgrade is due next week, or two of them. Or a downgrade, or two of them. Any timeframe people are aware of with regards to major analyst updates and potential upgrades/downgrades?

 

[dc_h]

Hmm, now if we could only organize and get tax exempt status..

Do you want the ironic answer?

 

[Artful Dodger]

As someone else noted several pages up, it seems whenever there isn't any big news for a few days, there's a slow drop. Any serious explanation for this? People just being nervous and impatient? Shorts pushing price down?

I see a couple of explanations for the current SP. First, it was a commonly repeated talking point in the FUDmedia that if 'Go-Private' deal goes through, the stock price would go to $420. If 'Go-Private' failed, the SP would go to $300. We arrived quickly in that 2nd case, and after an abortive attemp to breach $330 we're now back down to hover around $300.

The second trend, as noted by many commenters here, is the 'Daily-Dip' at open, the strong rebound, followed by the slow bleed. This is almost certainly caused by SP manipulation by some large (well-financed) shorts who's primary objective is not making money. The Daily-Dip now represents about half of the interday volatility of TSLA.

So yes, new News will move the SP. Or a new Tweet, or rather the FUD that follows. In either case, there will be the slow bleed afterward as the shorts fight (spend) to contain TSLA gains. Plan accordingly.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the TSLA weekly SP chart for 27-31 Aug 2018:

• The interweek high was reached around $319.27 at close on Monday
• The interweek low was around $298.31 reached on 10:00 am Thursday
• TSLA traded +/- $2.50 around the $301 level for the last 2 days of the week

 

[dc_h]

Makes me think they should create a subsidiary to partner with Nvidia to build specialized chips and code for driving. It would be a more bet mill. They could keep it a private 50/50 partnership or potentially sell a partial stake to invest back in the business. This could be worth more than Mobileye and Tesla would still have a lead with system integration. This could provide a market value of fsd and let Tesla focus on their other market advantage in power supply, motors, controls and DESIGN!

Disagree, but it could solve cash flow problems and create a cash cow subsidiary that would be worth more then the parent company is worth today.

 

[sundaymorning]

Einhorn down -25% for the year, -7% for the month.

Einhorn's Greenlight off 25% for year; Ackman up double-digits

Shares of General Motors, Einhorn’s largest holdings down 3.5%. Could it because if this?

GM’s Electric Dream in China Suddenly Looks Underpowered

GM’s batteries provided through China can’t past saftey tests and doesn’t yield anticipated power.

“Einhorn investors have been losing patience with him for some time and have been pulling money out. August's numbers could prompt more departures at year-end when the manager will next let investors redeem money, one person said.

An Einhorn spokesman declined to comment.”

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well, there was a point where someone said "free upgrade" but no detail about what that required. Was is EAP or EAP and FSD (already paid for) or EAP plus FSD (not paid at purchase but paid for after the fact). Or if one has EAP and now buys FSD, they will put in the new hardware for free as well. That's what I'm referring to hasn't been confirmed. If there is a link with absolute definition I'd love to read it. Thanks.

Elon was quite clear that those who have bought EAP+FSD will get it for free only.

 

[Matias]

I’ve been hesitant whether or not to increase my Tesla long position. All the time that i’ve been thinking this, stock has moved down (I started this exercise after “going private tweet”).

For what it’s worth, at the moment I think I first see q3 results. If GAAP is positive, I buy more. If it is not, I wait and see.

 

[Tslynk67]

If you are young, are well paid, have little to no debt or other obligations (college for kids) then I agree that going 'all in' on one stock/company that you believe in, while risky, is certainly a strategy that can make you incredibly wealthy, though with great risk.

Not lecturing here, just indicating that we all have different risk/reward/obligations. If you are happy, I am happy for you.

As it's weekend, and this is more relevant than rail-tracks...

Young, no - 52 - but not exactly old either. Three teenage kids, but university is free in Europe - in Denmark they even pay you to study...

I'm a freelance IT consultant, wife is a European civil servant, so my income is not guaranteed (although I've been in the same contract at the same place for 8 years now), but wife's job is guaranteed and her pension will be quite generous - easily enough for both of us to live on comfortably regardless of the provisions i'm making. The main goal is to be able to buy property where-ever we decided to retire (Belgium, France, Denmark, Spain - haven't decided yet) and not have to pay rent/mortgage.

Bought most of my $TSLA when we sold our house beginning 2016 (nw we rent, much cheaper) and got €60k cash back in profits after the mortgage was paid-off. Had been a Model S owner with 8 $TSLA shares to my name (bought at $280), since early 2014 and saw the big dip down to $140 that February. Persuaded wife to first buy 100 shares, then all-in with the rest - 403 we got at that moment as it was up to $166 before she gave-in for the rest. - nevertheless, very lucky timing. Since then have added as-and-when I could, regardless of price, usually in receiving annual tax refunds. I think total investment is around €80k. All money we can lose without making any difference to our lives - other than killing some dreams, of course.

Initially, wife wanted to use the €60k to go towards a summer-house in Denmark (she's Danish), but I pointed out we'd just end up with another mortgage around our necks and why not see if we could grow the investment to have enough to buy a house outright. So now we just wait. As is stands, around €140k for the moment, it's been a good investment to date (as we jumped in at the best possible moment since end 2013), but that money won't change our lives, 10x that amount will though, so we sit on it and wait.

 

[Matias]

What do you think about these stats? Are they trustworthy?

Tesla Shines In Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Stats For July

Please notice S and X sales.

 

[Sancho]

Young, no - 52 - but not exactly old either.

I’m ten years your senior, and a decade ago I deployed a similar strategy going all in on AAPL. That worked well. I retired early to focus on nonprofit work.

I’ve taken some of those winnings to go all in on TSLA. Fortune may smile on me again, or not. I don’t need the money, but I know how to deploy it for good causes if more comes my way.

You too are already way ahead of the game. I picture you roaming the entirety of Europe in your Tesla, and I’m very jealous. I hope you get that house you aspire to, and that someday you retrofit it with a solar roof.

Patience is a virtue. The road is long, but hey, you’re traveling in a Tesla. Enjoy the ride!

 

[jw934]

Tesla’s Big Battery rescues Australia’s gird. Again.