TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mike117]

I guess that Stock wull stay between 270-320.... Boring. Also Q3 will just be ok.

 

[neroden]

If you have enough knowledge about multiple high growth companies, this would fare very well and give you less stress. Problem is most of us know Tesla way better than other equities so our weighting is too skewed.

Yeah. I still have very little understanding of why Apple is so popular, and as a result, I can't safely invest in it. It could all fall apart, and here's the crucial thing, *I wouldn't notice*, because I don't understand why it's successful in the first place. If Tesla started falling apart, *I would notice*, early enough to get out.

 

[NicoV]

I remember buying my first iPod, I think it was 2003, then my first iMac in 2006 - immediate reaction to that was "why didn't I do this earlier". Many people will have the same reflection with EV's, especially Tesla.

I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that $TSLA will make me rich, they've more of a head-start now than Apple had with the iPhone and the integration of the hard and software is such more challenging than with a phone.

Aside the house, I hope to get a Roadster II before I retire - bought as a company car here it's much cheaper net cost. Then indeed, will tour around Europe in that charged at home, indeed by solar.

Cheers to us longs!

AAPL learned me a lesson too. A couple of years after the release of the IPhone, I bought some Apple puts, thinking Apple couldn’t grow, because there’s only that many people rich enough to be able to afford an IPhone. Of course the puts expired worthless. I’m a software developer who has spent his entire life in the Microsoft ecosystem, so it was difficult to accept Apple’s success. When I first visited this forum somewhere in a weekend in 2013, I saw a lot of parallels with Apple. The most striking thing was a user base that was 100% convinced Tesla would rule the world because of the superiority of the product compared to the competition, despite a much higher price. The higher price was irrelevant as it was compensated with a much higher product satisfaction, and the users were very willing to accept some product disadvantages. I spent that weekend soaking up the information on this forum, and building a spreadsheet to calculate whether I would be able to afford a Tesla. It turned out I could, much too my suprise I even found a scenario where a Tesla would be cheaper for me than most of the other plug-in cars. The next monday I bought a bunch of TSLA, market price at open. I didn’t care how much it cost, as I was convinced that, given enought time, it would become an order of magnitude more valuable.
I think a lot of the Tesla shorts are like me with Apple a decade ago: emotionally too attached to a different company to see the success that Apple/Tesla would have. At some point, the facts become too clear to ignore, and the short position ends. Luckily I only,bought Apple puts and I never shorted it (this also learned me too never short anything, as the potential loss has no upper bound).

 

[neroden]

Such as?

Anything involving borrowing money and paying interest. There are a lot of leveraged strategies and I avoid nearly all of them.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah. I still have very little understanding of why Apple is so popular, and as a result, I can't safely invest in it. It could all fall apart, and here's the crucial thing, *I wouldn't notice*, because I don't understand why it's successful in the first place. If Tesla started falling apart, *I would notice*, early enough to get out.

Couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah. I still have very little understanding of why Apple is so popular, and as a result, I can't safely invest in it. It could all fall apart, and here's the crucial thing, *I wouldn't notice*, because I don't understand why it's successful in the first place. If Tesla started falling apart, *I would notice*, early enough to get out.

I have a similar thought process about Apple but I took the approach that since everyone else seems to have bought into the narrative I might as well go along for the ride.

 

[Causalien]

Never bought into aapl. Too mature as a company for me so limited upside.

That said, I have strangers commenting on my Huawei P20 Pro nowadays.

So tsla will eventually have a high end competitor like this, but a decade later.

 

[Krugerrand]

I've said before that the disinformation and idiot short-sellers will stay in until Q4 earnings are reported next February. Q3 2018 is going to be more or less breakeven -- which is great -- but it'll allow the disinformation parade to continue. During Q4, even a modest ramp-up relative to Q3 (less than is planned) leads to gushing cash and it'll be undeniable.

I agree. They’ll spin it as a one time deal like the pie quarter, or say it was only breakeven because of ZEV or this or that. It’ll be harder to spin that for Q4 when GM rise and cars/wk have risen etc...

What might allow them to spin after that is the reveal of Model Y (did Elon say Marchish?) and then the shorts will claim Tesla can’t remain profitable while spending for Y or pickup or Semi - and definitely not if Tesla decides to do two new vehicles in parallel that Elon has already expressed wanting to do. And then the building of GigaChina, maybe GigaEuro is announced.

So.... I think the short narrative gets to live on despite Tesla becoming a cash cow Q418

 

[NicoV]

So tsla will eventually have a high end competitor like this, but a decade later.

And similar to Apple and Intel, having 80 or 90 percent of the profit in the sector.

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah. I still have very little understanding of why Apple is so popular, and as a result, I can't safely invest in it. It could all fall apart, and here's the crucial thing, *I wouldn't notice*, because I don't understand why it's successful in the first place. If Tesla started falling apart, *I would notice*, early enough to get out.

Here is a thought experiment I seem to be doing a lot lately:

Has Tesla grown enough to be successful without EM. Has he been able to get the production and design to a point that it is in large part "easy enough" to replicate?

Since EM is the face of Tesla him leaving would signal to many that Tesla is falling apart. But would it?
Certainly before M3 I think it would. But now we have or are right at the juncture of a company that is profitable and if the work that went into making it profitable can be replicated then maybe Tesla can survive many things that would have killed it before.

I don't think EM will leave at any time soon( And I certainly hope he does not) but at some point he will.
I think Tesla is like a huge engine that took a lot to get started...but is very close to being able to run....and run over most competition ..by itself.

 

[Krugerrand]

Here is a thought experiment I seem to be doing a lot lately:

Has Tesla grown enough to be successful without EM. Has he been able to get the production and design to a point that it is in large part "easy enough" to replicate?

Since EM is the face of Tesla him leaving would signal to many that Tesla is falling apart. But would it?
Certainly before M3 I think it would. But now we have or are right at the juncture of a company that is profitable and if the work that went into making it profitable can be replicated then maybe Tesla can survive many things that would have killed it before.

I don't think EM will leave at any time soon( And I certainly hope he does not) but at some point he will.
I think Tesla is like a huge engine that took a lot to get started...but is very close to being able to run....and run over most competition ..by itself.

IMO, not yet. Who just righted the Model 3 ramp by restructuring, camping on Gigafactory roof and helping rewrite 2/3 years of code in just a few weeks, sleeping on the Fremont factory floor and getting down in the trenches with the common man to build a tent and sort other stuffs out, and threw away a very strong desire to take his company private to protect the retail investor?

And who do you think managed to get such a sweet deal for China Gigafactory? 100% foreign ownership of a car factory!!! It’ll be the first of its kind.

No. Just no. We can revisit in 10 years.

 

[Drax7]

Bought Apple initially on the cool iPhone product and the firms financials
Back in 2008/9 , and still hold on to a small fraction of the initial position.
Besides the product, back then it was sales growth, fcf to sales,
Stock valuation, business to consumer model, wide mass appeal, etc..

And as growth subsided I diversified away.
Now unit growth is mostly about replacement cycle, revenue growth
Is based on price increases because they can, and Stock buybacks
Help support the stock.

“Apple-pay” as a service could have wide mass appeal but seems pretty
Dead.

I am expecting Tesla to evolve in a similar fashion and it all starts with the
Product.

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah ....I know from the cheap seat's where I sit it is easy to think .."well thank's Elon for the hard work...it's all good now"
But your right maybe 10 more years.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Yeah ....I know from the cheap seat's where I sit it is easy to think .."well thank's Elon for the hard work...it's all good now"
But your right maybe 10 more years.

Yes way too early to see that. Electric car still very tiny part of industry. Would expect enormous continued growth that will not slow until electric cars more than 50% of market. Of course competition will come but large lead present with new model S/X competitors still not released yet when model S released over 6 years ago. I wonder if electric cars will be called Tesla’s like copying machines were all called Xerox’s by people despite the company that manufactured them.

 

[Foghat]

Yeah. I still have very little understanding of why Apple is so popular, and as a result, I can't safely invest in it. It could all fall apart, and here's the crucial thing, *I wouldn't notice*, because I don't understand why it's successful in the first place. If Tesla started falling apart, *I would notice*, early enough to get out.

Apple ecosystem across all their products work well. It’s the total package of Apple that consumers buy into, thus you don’t just buy the iPhone, you buy everything else, including the music service and storage service (and anything on iTunes). In addition, developers make more money with Apple App Store across all their products. It’s something like 90% of all Apple product users download new iOS updates, meaning most are running the latest software as soon as it is available. Where the Android is less then half that, and there is a majority running multiple older versions of their operating system.

Again, it’s the ecosystem keeps them very attractive to consumers. They introduce a new product, consumers have an expectation it will fit seemlessly into the ecosystem they know.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I agree. They’ll spin it as a one time deal like the pie quarter, or say it was only breakeven because of ZEV or this or that. It’ll be harder to spin that for Q4 when GM rise and cars/wk have risen etc...

What might allow them to spin after that is the reveal of Model Y (did Elon say Marchish?) and then the shorts will claim Tesla can’t remain profitable while spending for Y or pickup or Semi - and definitely not if Tesla decides to do two new vehicles in parallel that Elon has already expressed wanting to do. And then the building of GigaChina, maybe GigaEuro is announced.

So.... I think the short narrative gets to live on despite Tesla becoming a cash cow Q418

After Q4 the short meme will be:

- Tesla will not be able to sell a lot of Model S and X because they are getting old (never mind that Tesla will likely introduce a new Model S and refreshed Model X).

- Tesla will not be able to make enough money on the base Model 3, which will become a larger part of the production mix (never mind that they will sell plenty of top end versions outside of Europe).

- Tesla will not be able to sell cars because of the incentive winding down (I expect a new Congress will extend the incentive for GM and Tesla not to give an edge to foreign car manufacturers).

 

[1208]

Apple car involved in crash

iCrash: Apple’s secret self-driving car plan revealed after collision involving test car

 

[KarenRei]

After Q4 the short meme will be:

- Tesla will not be able to sell a lot of Model S and X because they are getting old (never mind that Tesla will likely introduce a new Model S and refreshed Model X).

- Tesla will not be able to make enough money on the base Model 3, which will become a larger part of the production mix (never mind that they will sell plenty of top end versions outside of Europe).

- Tesla will not be able to sell cars because of the incentive winding down (I expect a new Congress will extend the incentive for GM and Tesla not to give an edge to foreign car manufacturers).

I'm wondering if they'll be able to manage the cognitive dissonance to insist "demand is drying up" in the middle of Tesla starting its Europe / APAC launch, with US LR+PUP demand having taken half a year to mostly satiate.

I'm sure some will give that argument a try nonetheless

Obviously the "imminent competition hypothesis" will be in full force. It's still a leading theory on Seeking Alpha, for example that the 18,6k-produced-per-year Hyundai Kona is going to kill the Model 3

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Interesting numbers from the most recent Electrek podcast:

Electrek Podcast: Tesla Model 3 production/deliveries, Tesla Semi goes on tour, take-private deal fails, and more

34,700 Model 3 so far this quarter & 4300 this most recent week. Depending on whether these numbers are from Aug 30 or 31, that’s on pace for 51,500 - 52,300 for the quarter. If they hold their most recent pace (4300/week), they’ll end up with about 54k for the quarter. So it looks like they’ve nailed their guidance (50-55k) so far.

Of course, if production continues to improve as we’d hope, they could exceed 55k. And if it runs into excessive delays, they could still fail to achieve 50k. But either version is unlikely at this point.

Fred had a negative or pessimistic tone, as he has lately, but the numbers are good.

 

[Foghat]

Here is a thought experiment I seem to be doing a lot lately:

Has Tesla grown enough to be successful without EM. Has he been able to get the production and design to a point that it is in large part "easy enough" to replicate?

Since EM is the face of Tesla him leaving would signal to many that Tesla is falling apart. But would it?
Certainly before M3 I think it would. But now we have or are right at the juncture of a company that is profitable and if the work that went into making it profitable can be replicated then maybe Tesla can survive many things that would have killed it before.

I don't think EM will leave at any time soon( And I certainly hope he does not) but at some point he will.
I think Tesla is like a huge engine that took a lot to get started...but is very close to being able to run....and run over most competition ..by itself.

I think regardless of who may be CEO in 10 years, Elon will always be the heart of Tesla. Just like Jobs still the heart of Apple. There is no way to separate him from it.

I think it’s just the reality of being invested in Tesla for the long term.