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  1. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Guys, this is getting really tiresome. This not the place to discuss FSD. And if it were, there isn’t anything that hasn’t been said already. This isn’t just me, several other people have asked to take the discussion where it belongs and they are also being ignored. I’d hate to give members a...
  2. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is what I could find, but the number isn't split out for FSD and other items: Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balances as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 was $281 million and $134 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
  3. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    You can BTC them now for less premium than you received, it I remember correctly. But then all the hyperventilating and the sleepless night was for nothing. It does give you peace of mind and you live to fight another day.
  4. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    That’s not what I took away from the call. The 25k car, if it ever arrives, is many years out. The new, cheaper cars based on the existing Model 3/Y platform and built on the same lines (which to me means less efficiency because they have to switch between models) will not be 25k. The deck said...
  5. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Maybe they don’t get closed because they have lost all value (like mine :p)
  6. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That was already in the P&D report published on April 2nd ;)
  7. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Does Model 3 Performance being launched on earnings day tell us something? Or is it a mere coincidence? :rolleyes:
  8. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Just like the market I've lost some fate in Tesla/TSLA over the last few months. Model 3 and Y have to keep the company afloat for the next 2-3 years, but in China the competition is getting very tough (with a lot of fresh designs) and in the US the low hanging fruit has been picked and it's...
  9. Right_Said_Fred

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Everyone please stop posting about the US 'border crisis'. It is no longer linked to the Russia-Ukraine war now that the vote is behind us, and inevitably leads to political bickering, which we do not want in this thread.
  10. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I’m afraid you are mistaken. I started to doubt myself, but one of the perks of being a mod is that I can see all versions of a post. The dates were already in the first version. But all is good.
  11. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    After some consideration I pulled the trigger on 10 spreads +p135/-p125 05/03, paying $2.78. The date allows for some digesting of the earnings call and the same spread for 04/26 is only a few dime cheaper. Even after the 42% drop I still see more downside, but if it bounces you can thank me...
  12. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Looking for a nice entry for an earnings play, but after the carnage of the last few trading days it feels as if there isn't much opportunity left. We could ofcourse drop a lot more, but if Tesla/Elon pulls a surprise out of the hat we could bounce hard. So I don't feel very comfortable selling...
  13. Right_Said_Fred

    Wat de andere automerken doen

    Agreed. Ik had niet meegelezen. Hoewel een beetje off topic af en toe moet kunnen, is dit gesprek wel heel erg ver afgedwaald. Tijd om het weer te hebben over wat de andere automerken doen.
  14. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    We did close the infamous gap in PM, but I guess that doesn’t count. Anyeway, I BTC my 20 spreads -p150/+140 for a 100% gain. Step by step up that ladder that @Yoona posted, instead of overreaching. Next week I will look if I can find another (probably smaller) position to play earnings. In...
  15. Right_Said_Fred

    Frustrating Auto Wiper Mode.

    Maybe he should have fixed it during his tenure at Tesla. FSD is improving thanks to the situations drivers encounter on the road. Why not get hundreds of thousands of Tesla drivers involved in an experiment where they (only) manually adjust wiper speed and the feedback sent to Tesla helps the...
  16. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    So true! But I do have these spreads to cover some of the losses of my shares (on top of the written calls, which are losing value). I would hate to sell the spreads and then see it drop a lot more. I think I will wait a bit more as I have not seen capitulation yet. It has been a gradual...
  17. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm still sitting on 20 spreads +p150/-p140 for 4/26, which are now plus 100%. That could go to 400% if we close under 140 next week. But it could also become -100% if we close above 150. I'll probably close them earlier, at least part of them, as I don't want to be dependent on what happens on...
  18. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Battery and drive train are imho much less important for Robotaxi. They don’t require speed and performance, so the current technology will probably suffice. Cheap LFP batteries from Chinese suppliers which can be charged to 100% without much degradation are also just fine. No more need for...
  19. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I believe what we are hearing and seeing these last few weeks is part of a big pivot going on at Tesla. Elon is on the one hand seeing how hard the car market can be (increasing cheap competition from China, high interest rates, huge capital expenditures) and on the other hand he is witnessing...
  20. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I don't believe in coincidence. Tesla/Elon is firing thousands of employees to make the company leaner in the face of economic headwinds and/or move the focus from cars to autonomy/robots (the core of the Reuters story). He probably allows people from the higher echelons to resign gracefully...
  21. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I was mainly referring to curb rashes, snow, cones, potholes, calibration, etc. The technical details.
  22. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    The most likely candidate in my book is an Iranian attack on Israel and the Israeli response. Not meant as the start of a discussion about this subject.
  23. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Too much detailed technical FSD discussion here, two pages already. We have dedicated FSD threads and the main thread for these kind of discussions. This is not the first such message. I’d hate to delete posts.
  24. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    All EV stocks are following the same trajectory. Must be out of fashion again. So does DJT.
  25. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Hats off to you :)
  26. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Moderator note (to all): when posting a chart like this please explain a bit what we are looking at. I assume this circle is pointing out a resistance area where the ascent stopped, but it’s better if we don’t have to guess.
  27. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Wouldn’t surprise me if he decided on a reveal date just a few hours ago, after the Reuters debacle. Hopefully the revealed car will not take as long to go into production as Cybertruck, Semi and Roadster. Another scary thought: if Robotaxi and Model 2 are basically the same car, will the reveal...
  28. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Is that a negative or a positive (ignoring the market’s initial knee jerk reaction)? It will probably depend on whether it revives the doubts sown about the priority of Model 2.
  29. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I for one don’t like going through pages and pages filled with pitchblack thumbs down. I prefer discussion with arguments. But suit yourself, it was just a suggestion, not an instruction.
  30. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The tangent about eating while driving reached its destination: Off topic galore And what’s with all the downvotes the last few days? What purpose is being served by giving a thumbs down to everything you disagree with? Let’s respect each other’s opinions, also the ones you don’t like.
  31. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Looks like the market is still jittery and maybe starts thinking that where there’s smoke there’s some kind of fire. James Cat’s removed tweet about deprioritizing Model 2 does not help. Deprioritizing is not the same as cancelling, so Elon would technically still be right when he tweets that...
  32. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    That guy is definitely unhinged if you read his timeline on X today.
  33. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    The first statement is definitely true. Charlie Munger passed 4 months ago :oops: Or is that what you meant?
  34. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can’t find your post(s) about Republicans vs. Democrats or related political subjects? Look no further: Off topic galore The posts could have been deleted and there could have even been some bans, so consider this to be mildness.
  35. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    It doesn’t look like there’s enough space left in that wedge to make it all the way to earnings. Maybe we will break out before then.
  36. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Those trades always look great in hindsight. But what are the odds of a 5% runup on the third day after a disastrous P&D? Not many people take such short term far OTM positions because 99% of the time you’re throwing money away. I did two year backtesting of a strategy with super cheap 7,5 and...
  37. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    This one did not age well. But I always make sure the strike is not too close, so I can roll them. Which I did, to c200 4/26, earning another $0.55. These calls are covered but I prefer to keep rolling them if necessary.
  38. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Whoops, typo: p182.5 should have been c182.5. Fixed it.
  39. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    STO 10 x c182.5 4/12 for $0.80.
  40. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    The last few weeks he has been pumping the stock a lot. Until recently he didn’t seem to care much about the stock price. Let’s hope there is no need to sell shares to fund a certain enterprise.
  41. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Someone has developed, besides his ability to outsmart market makers, the ability to outsmart the anti-profanity programming of this forum :D
  42. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I've added 5 more spreads (-p150/+p140) for 4/26, on top of the existing 15. Paid $1.99. It feels as if the market has not yet digested these numbers and we could see a steady drop towards earnings, especially if macros also take a breather. Could be wrong as usual.
  43. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm not a fan of his work (and also recently discovered he blocked me on X), but I believe his 409k - even if off by more than 5% - was closest to the real number.
  44. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Does someone know something or it this just risk off?
  45. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    This weekend I was sucked down the FSD rabbit hole by an overactive X algo, and with all the people saying they would definitely buy more shares or hold on to the existing ones for dear life after experiencing the new software version, I was expecting a much more positive open. I guess that's...
  46. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Sorry, overlooked the ATM.
  47. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I didn't notice that with the c205 4/5 I sold last week for $0.50. They closed Friday at $0.15 but were at $0.11 a few minutes after opening, with a virtually flat SP.
  48. Right_Said_Fred

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Y'all wanted to talk about other stocks too. NVDA, MSCI, AAPL. Then DJT qualifies as well :p But it's a dangerous one, because it can quickly become political. The last few posts about DJT got very close to meeting the mod hammer.
  49. Right_Said_Fred

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm a bit confused, so maybe someone can help me out here. I was under the impression that for a while now all Model Ys delivered in (western) Europe were being built in Berlin. My daily observation during my commute in The Netherlands of trailers full of Model Ys going from east (Germany) to...