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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Nice bounceback for CSIQ today, as I hoped / expected after unreasonably large dip after announcing capital raise. Kind of wish I had doubled down on my LEAPS on the dip, but still sitting pretty at the moment.
Sleepy, once the dust settles from TSLA earnings, wonder if we will be due for a "Sleepy's State of the Solars" megapost...
Sleepy, once the dust settles from TSLA earnings, wonder if we will be due for a "Sleepy's State of the Solars" megapost...
Kind of wish I had doubled down on my LEAPS on the dip...
Sleepy, once the dust settles from TSLA earnings, wonder if we will be due for a "Sleepy's State of the Solars" megapost...
+1 on both of those
I'd bought 30 and 32 strikes a few weeks ago at $2.09 and $1.06. I'd had in my mind it was in late January, but looking now it was Feb 3rd, but the price really dropped right after (I usually buy in the mid-mornings) and I remember thinking "yay, bad timing again". Which, I suppose is still true given what I could have gotten those options for the next day
Which, I suppose is still true given what I could have gotten those options for the next day
I know that feeling all too well... congrates on getting back to even+ on those!
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I tend to pick the number of contracts I plan to buy and then buy ca 50-60% of those only. Then wait a couple of hours or days depending on their time scale to see if the moment was good or bad. If it runs up like mad, then oh well I only gain profit on half of the contracts that I had planned If it drops I trickle down the average by buying at various points where I think it might stabilize. You do run out at some point and I have a rule that I don't exceed 150% initial investment plan when averaging down and if I do get to >100% plan to average down, then the moment it crosses to green I sell the excess amount. This has helped a lot for volatile stocks like the solars are. And during the dip I did buy CSIQ leaps increased my position by about 25%. I am right now a bit on the edge with my averaging down for JASO as I hadn't defined the 100% quite clearly and am sitting on 18 contracts of $10 2015 for it while I think my comfort margin is around 10 contracts. It has recovered, but I'm about 40c away from green there still which translates to ~1k$ unrealized loss (in my 55k$ portfolio). I think I need JASO to cross $10 to get those options in the green and liquidate it to 10 contracts or so.
If it drops I trickle down the average by buying at various points where I think it might stabilize. You do run out at some point and I have a rule that I don't exceed 150% initial investment plan when averaging down and if I do get to >100% plan to average down, then the moment it crosses to green I sell the excess amount. This has helped a lot for volatile stocks like the solars are. And during the dip I did buy CSIQ leaps increased my position by about 25%. I am right now a bit on the edge with my averaging down for JASO as I hadn't defined the 100% quite clearly and am sitting on 18 contracts of $10 2015 for it while I think my comfort margin is around 10 contracts. It has recovered, but I'm about 40c away from green there still which translates to ~1k$ unrealized loss (in my 55k$ portfolio). I think I need JASO to cross $10 to get those options in the green and liquidate it to 10 contracts or so.
I tend to pick the number of contracts I plan to buy and then buy ca 50-60% of those only. Then wait a couple of hours or days depending on their time scale to see if the moment was good or bad. If it runs up like mad, then oh well I only gain profit on half of the contracts that I had planned
Well, Jan15 is a few months away. Don't fret yet. Keep your hat on. I'd guess, by sleepyhead's reasoning, that JASO will recover perhaps massively Real Soon Now. (I am also in the red on JASO common, but only about 7%.)
I really like your strategy: simple and clever. Not that I trade in options, but it works for common stock also.
Tried the "like" star for that comment, but have run out of ammo ;-)
@Mario
that's similar to the AAPL strategy i used for a long time with very good results. And now I use something similar with Solar LEAPS (and TSLA for that matter), coupled with a core holding of stock that I se for conversion instead of cash- converting the stock to LEAPS positions as the average down mechanism, then moving those back to stock when they recover (all the while holding a core set of stock/LEAPS that never get traded other than time and strike roll-ups as the stock performs).
that's similar to the AAPL strategy i used for a long time with very good results. And now I use something similar with Solar LEAPS (and TSLA for that matter), coupled with a core holding of stock that I se for conversion instead of cash- converting the stock to LEAPS positions as the average down mechanism, then moving those back to stock when they recover (all the while holding a core set of stock/LEAPS that never get traded other than time and strike roll-ups as the stock performs).
Quinto is a 135MW solar project.
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Nice bounceback for CSIQ today, as I hoped / expected after unreasonably large dip after announcing capital raise. Kind of wish I had doubled down on my LEAPS on the dip, but still sitting pretty at the moment.
Sleepy, once the dust settles from TSLA earnings, wonder if we will be due for a "Sleepy's State of the Solars" megapost...
State of the solar sector is really good.
Everything is going very positively for the whole sector. People just always try to find something that is wrong in the sector, that just isn't there. Or they might find a puny hiccup somewhere and try to escalate it into doomsday for the solar sector. Too many clueless people shorting the solar stocks just want to see them fail by any means necessary; it is kind of pathetic. I just love watching those shorts suffer.
I just read an article last week about a guy who went short JASO because it was about to cross the 200 day moving average and his target was $6; and this was supposed to be some "expert" on a big financial website. I immediately thought - thanks for the tip and loaded up on JASO call options, including some Feb $9's that I bought for 0.29; already tripled in a few short days. Poor bloke didn't understand that JASO is about to bounce off the 200 day moving average and not cross it; you don't short a stock before it closes below. To me it was a great entry point, because there was no way that JASO was going any lower unless the whole market crashed.
People just don't get solar, they just want to see it fail.
The way I see things, I wouldn't have my money anywhere else (excluding TSLA of course).
Well, that didn't last long. Back to a net loss. I checked premarket at breakfast, saw it was up a non-trivial amount and figured I'd I'll log in after my morning meetings to decide which and how much of my options to close out. Ah well, we'll see what the afternoon brings I guess.
Thanks for the update on the sector, Sleepy!
You know, I was reading about the newly-completed Ivanpah solar-thermal plant that had its "Grand Opening" yesterday, and that led me to read about Google exiting the solar-thermal business, including at this location. I mean, I'm pleased that this plant is online given that it is in fact a giant renewable power generator, but it's clear to me, and Google, and much of the market now, that photovoltaic solar panels have come so far down in cost that it mostly doesn't make sense to pursue solar-thermal going forward. When I last researched prices in 2008, wind was the most cost-competitive, but that is so not the case now. Photovoltaics are kicking butt.
Good news for CSIQ, JASO and the like, I should think. Good news for our portfolios, and good news for our species, I hope.
You know, I was reading about the newly-completed Ivanpah solar-thermal plant that had its "Grand Opening" yesterday, and that led me to read about Google exiting the solar-thermal business, including at this location. I mean, I'm pleased that this plant is online given that it is in fact a giant renewable power generator, but it's clear to me, and Google, and much of the market now, that photovoltaic solar panels have come so far down in cost that it mostly doesn't make sense to pursue solar-thermal going forward. When I last researched prices in 2008, wind was the most cost-competitive, but that is so not the case now. Photovoltaics are kicking butt.
Good news for CSIQ, JASO and the like, I should think. Good news for our portfolios, and good news for our species, I hope.
palmer_md
Member
Especially without thermal storage. I was amazed to read that they did not include any storage at the Ivanpah plant. That is the one big advantage of solar thermal is that they can carry some load past dusk when the demand is still very high.
Just read an article today that solar PV panels cost $4/watt in 2008 and now cost $0.70.
Humongous difference.
InTheShadows
Active Member
The first system I installed was on our house. I paid 4.25/watt wholesale. We are installing complete ground mount systems for less than that now. When I took my training courses my instructor said that he was astounded that they were less than $5, he paid $8 for his just 1 year before.
Referring to the first two posts on this page:
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread) - Page 301
I closed out the JASO calls at a 4 bagger today. Glad that ckessel missed the purchase by a hair, since they probably would have been worthless today instead had his order gotten filled.
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread) - Page 301
I closed out the JASO calls at a 4 bagger today. Glad that ckessel missed the purchase by a hair, since they probably would have been worthless today instead had his order gotten filled.
Hey now! :tongue:
Opportunity lost for me. If I'd picked that up, those would have made up for a lot of losses :crying:
InTheShadows
Active Member
Yea, the 10's are 2x at this point and I cashed the 11's at about a 70% loss (paid .15, got .05 this morning). The 11s I'd completely written off and I'd set up an order to get a nickle if it ever spiked enough. It's very possible I'll regret that by the end of the day, but since they expire at the end of the week, I felt like the decay could easily make me miss the chance to get anything back on them.
I was thinking of loading up on those this am at 0.05. I wish you had told me earlier that you sold then I would have bought them for sure. Already 0.10/0.15.
BTW, the JASO calls I sold today represent less than a fraction of 1% of my JASO exposure. Just needed some cash to adj. Some TSLA positions.
I am not selling JASO here, the JASO train only fired up the engine today, but is not even close to leaving the station yet.
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