Norse
Active Member
I never left. I have mostly my money in CSIQ, TSLA and JKS but I have beeb buying SCTY feb calls for a while, hoping they would rally with TSLA ER.
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
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I never left. I have mostly my money in CSIQ, TSLA and JKS but I have beeb buying SCTY feb calls for a while, hoping they would rally with TSLA ER.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I was eyeing SCTY around the $18 point, but before I knew it, it was in the $20s. Then I waited for it to go back down but it went into the $30s! So knowing about the effect that kept people from buying TSLA I finally bought it in the upper 30s even though it had doubled from where I originally bought it. It has now doubled again making it a hard buy but it's hard to put a value on SCTY.
SCTY cut to neutral by Baird ahead of ER
explains some of the retreat today
SolarCity Corp (SCTY) news: Tech ratings changes: SolarCity, Red Hat, Gogo, Youku, SMIC - Seeking Alpha
explains some of the retreat today
SolarCity Corp (SCTY) news: Tech ratings changes: SolarCity, Red Hat, Gogo, Youku, SMIC - Seeking Alpha
Back up 3% in early after hours. I think this is partly "Elon Effect" just being pulled along with Tesla, and maybe some of it because of the TSLA earnings report mentioning "stationary energy storage" in connection with the Gigafactory.
Normally, we ought to consider +3.1% AH to be a darned nice kick, but considering what TSLA did this afternoon AND all the hints dropped about the Gigafactory and battery storage, I would say the aftermarket traders are missing the boat with such piddly SCTY reaction.
On the other hand, all the solars I watch and hold have had such an eye-popping last few days that today's pullback doesn't bother me one bit. What a year 2014 has been! Are we close to year's end yet?
On the other hand, all the solars I watch and hold have had such an eye-popping last few days that today's pullback doesn't bother me one bit. What a year 2014 has been! Are we close to year's end yet?
I have been successfully playing SCTY earnings for 3 quarters now. It always shoots up over the day or 2 days preceding ER, and last 2 quarters at least it tanked after ER. Monday might act just as predictably. It actually just hit me that assuming weekend doesn't bring bad news to market, weekly calls have a very high chance of reward very low risk if you buy now and sell before close on Monday. I don't see people selling SCTY on Monday, since by now general market knows there is a chance gigafactory will be mentioned or include SCTY. I am averaging into Feb 28s today, already bought 1/3rd and will grab the rest by end of day. I see those options maybe losing 10 - 15% of time value over weekend. If nothing happens within 30 to 60 minutes of market open on Monday, I am out. If the underlying stock moves 5 to 10% which is my guess I think I will make a double to a triple.
I don't have any charts or T.A. to back this up, just been watching SCTY since IPO and had skin in the game every quarterly earnings so I remember vividly the price action. Just seems to me that the stars are aligned and the reward far outweighs risks over a single trading day. And I will say again, there is no way I am holding past Monday, in fact last quarter I bought puts for ER and doubled my money, I would do the same this time except for the chance giga factory will be mentioned.
Edit:
Disclaimer #2, in the past I have tried and failed to gauge market sentiment, so maybe my assumption that the giga factory will provide a short term quasi-base to scty stock price is dead wrong. Good luck to all next week!
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My position in SCTY is mostly stock.
I wouldn't know how to play SCTY earnings next week. For one, it's had a big run and it's near ATHs. So, the ER better be good to meet expectations. But typically SCTY earnings are kind of dry. On the other hand, they're near doubling in customers every year. If I had a better sense of what was going on on the ground real-time, then I might play earnings. But earnings plays can be risky w/o some knowledge or experience advantage.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I'm playing the scty earnings, and maybe i'm on the wrong side of it.
+5 34-strike april calls.
+200 shares
short side
-3 60 strike calls
-2 70 strike calls
-4 85 strike calls.
I am betting that we get downside, so that I can roll the 60 strike calls up to 70 or 80 strike. I sold those early and intended to roll them. I missed the chance when the price rocketed down to 63 in the panic last month. I think there was a lockup expiration that everyone missed, and I think that prevents serious upside to the shares for now. That's why I'm slightly overweight shorting 85 strike calls.
+5 34-strike april calls.
+200 shares
short side
-3 60 strike calls
-2 70 strike calls
-4 85 strike calls.
I am betting that we get downside, so that I can roll the 60 strike calls up to 70 or 80 strike. I sold those early and intended to roll them. I missed the chance when the price rocketed down to 63 in the panic last month. I think there was a lockup expiration that everyone missed, and I think that prevents serious upside to the shares for now. That's why I'm slightly overweight shorting 85 strike calls.
Norse
Active Member
Well, what if the lockup was for Elons stocks? He said recently that SCTY is undervalued and that "people don't get it" so he is probably not selling
The downside I see is the US-China trade war.
It seems to me that Solarcity has been holding back many press releases so far this quarter. They announced their deal with Direct Energy in October, and have only PR'd two deals from that relationship. I would bet there are many other bigger deals either closed or in the pipeline, and I hope they are able to discuss those. Those new deal PR's are what really drives SCTY and they have been lacking recently compared to what I would expect them to close.
Additionally, the last line in the TSLA earnings announcement was that they are seeing incredibly strong solar demand. I beleive SCTY will be involved in the gigafactory, however I am a bit reserved because I fear SCTY might do a secondary offering to raise money for this. The only time I have ever seen a secondary offering affect a stock positively was TSLA, so it is hard to gauge how the market will react.
Bottom line, I still believe the market does not understand SCTY. I think will be a $20B company within a few years. I bet SCTY will be bigger than TSLA one day.
Additionally, the last line in the TSLA earnings announcement was that they are seeing incredibly strong solar demand. I beleive SCTY will be involved in the gigafactory, however I am a bit reserved because I fear SCTY might do a secondary offering to raise money for this. The only time I have ever seen a secondary offering affect a stock positively was TSLA, so it is hard to gauge how the market will react.
Bottom line, I still believe the market does not understand SCTY. I think will be a $20B company within a few years. I bet SCTY will be bigger than TSLA one day.
If you look at the retained value of today, and extrapolate that to include their goal of 1m customers by mid-2018.
"implied annual U.S. market for electricity priced at or above $0.141/kWh is $63 billion" from their presentation.
So right now they have 70,000 contracts for a retained value of $1.7B. Multiply that by ~14 to make 70k 1m, and you get $23.8B, that is only considering their current 14 markets in the USA as a TAM.
And that doesn't consider other factors like total system costs dropping through lower panel prices, and lower financing.
I'm sure many people doubt this call, but only time will tell
.Another important variable is who makes the money off of the in home battery storage. Depending on how Elon structures that will be the difference between the two companies. But I believe he owns more SCTY than TSLA.
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