Image if CT actually launches at advertised prices: What will other EV trucks do?!

[RMS149]

TB,

Nahhh. What really happens is most of us who actually use a truck as a truck look at the actual specs and the actual price and turn around and by an ICE truck. If you can't compete and be reasonably close on price (+10-15%) then you go back to the technology that does work...

Not sure who thinks the general public is going to pay twice as much for half the features.

Don't get me wrong I would love to own the Chevy EV but not for $105,000 with only 300 usable mile range and no payload capacity.

If Cybertruck goes down that hole or raises the price beyond what is reasonable then my next truck will have an ICE in it for $75,000 fully loaded.

If Cyber truck can get within $12K of that, have 500 mile range, 250 mile range loaded, then they are in the running and I will complete my order. If as some are speculating the cost is 120k-150k then it will be a niche vehicle that is bait and switch and not something worth owning. Everything comes down to economics.

 

[electricjib]

Wild prediction but I think the CT will come in lower than the competition by a good bit. They have the flexibility to make quick changes and enough capital as well.

They can watch the market and react accordingly. Rivians price jump was a huge loss for them. The lighting is overpriced by a decent amount to get a package you’d actually want. The hummer is just a bit overkill.

 

[electricjib]

bUt tHe fOrTy sIx eIgHtY cElLs!!!
--Every Tesla fanboy since Dec 2019

Technically they’re well ahead of schedule. At battery day they were targeting 2023. Gonna be in Ys soon so… sucks to be wrong?

 

[Ogre]

Wild prediction but I think the CT will come in lower than the competition by a good bit. They have the flexibility to make quick changes and enough capital as well.

They can watch the market and react accordingly. Rivians price jump was a huge loss for them. The lighting is overpriced by a decent amount to get a package you’d actually want. The hummer is just a bit overkill.

Considering they launched with much better pricing than the Rivian, it stands to reason that it will be significantly less expensive than the Rivian at launch. Pricing was the tentpole feature of the Cybertruck.

Rivian has always been the truck to buy if you want a truck that looks like a truck, has a “luxury” interior, pretty paint, and a flashlight in the door.

 

[ThomasD]

The Long Range Model Y starts at over 58,990 318 miles. A 300 mile Cybertruck for 50k I doubt will happen.

 

[strider]

Competition from Rivian and Ford: Yeah Rivian and Ford beat them to the punch, but only Rivian has a competitively priced truck (for now) whereas Ford is going going for high end sales for the biggest possible margin.

To answer your original question, there is NO WAY that Tesla will sell CTs for the launch prices and launch specs. The world has changed. CT pricing will be very close to Ford though I expect the specs to be better at each tier.

If Cybertruck goes down that hole or raises the price beyond what is reasonable then my next truck will have an ICE in it for $75,000 fully loaded.

If Cyber truck can get within $12K of that, have 500 mile range, 250 mile range loaded, then they are in the running and I will complete my order. If as some are speculating the cost is 120k-150k then it will be a niche vehicle that is bait and switch and not something worth owning. Everything comes down to economics.

There is a small chance that you will get a 500 mile CT for $87k but I would not count on it. I think a 500 mile CT will cost at minimum $95k.

 

[strider]

Wild prediction but I think the CT will come in lower than the competition by a good bit. They have the flexibility to make quick changes and enough capital as well.

They can watch the market and react accordingly. Rivians price jump was a huge loss for them. The lighting is overpriced by a decent amount to get a package you’d actually want. The hummer is just a bit overkill.

Why do you think that? Tesla is not in the business of leaving money on the table. Witness the MY 4680 rollout. They are not increasing range or decreasing price. Tesla is putting the additional margin in their pocket. Tesla will look at the CT competition and match their prices (though they will have better specs at each tier).

As it has been said, no one is demand limited at this point. Why leave money on the table?

 

[Ogre]

Why do you think that? Tesla is not in the business of leaving money on the table. Witness the MY 4680 rollout. They are not increasing range or decreasing price. Tesla is putting the additional margin in their pocket. Tesla will look at the CT competition and match their prices (though they will have better specs at each tier).

As it has been said, no one is demand limited at this point. Why leave money on the table?

Ask Rivian

 

[strider]

Ask Rivian

Ask them what? If the reports are true that half of their orders cancelled, then the upped the price too much. I'm fairly sure they could have done a 10% bump even for existing orders. They just needed to pull from the Tesla Roadster-era playbook and tell the order holders that prices have gone up, they need to bump the prices in order to ensure the company's future, yadda, yadda. No one wants to buy a vehicle and then have the company go bankrupt. People would have done it. Rivian just completely f'ed up the communication which isn't surprising. Their CEO is a great engineer but has ZERO business experience.

My point is business 101. Sell your product for as much as you can while keeping demand where you need it to run your factories at their highest efficiency. Tesla has been doing this all along. They change prices on their models all the time. If demand slows they drop the prices. If demand picks up, they raise them.

Tesla will price the CT as high as they can while keeping demand where they want it.

 

[Ogre]

Ask them what? If the reports are true that half of their orders cancelled, then the upped the price too much. I'm fairly sure they could have done a 10% bump even for existing orders. They just needed to pull from the Tesla Roadster-era playbook and tell the order holders that prices have gone up….

Tesla didn’t just bump prices up the way Rivian did.. They kept the base price of the Roadster the same and increased the price of upgrades and introduced a new model.

I must have skipped the class in business school where they told us it was a good idea to set expectations one way then deliver something entirely different. Just pushing the prices would not go over well.

I’m not suggesting Cybertruck prices are fixed in stone. But the idea that they are just going to bump up prices strikes me as a bad tactic and not Tesla’s style. I suspect they will replacing the launch offerings with a pair of new models (They already said the quad is coming) and they will keep at least the spirit of launch in tact by making the trucks competitive with ICE trucks.

 

[WhiteWi]

I don’t believe in 500 mile CT at lunch. Hope I am wrong

 

[strider]

Tesla didn’t just bump prices up the way Rivian did.. They kept the base price of the Roadster the same and increased the price of upgrades and introduced a new model.

Heh. You weren't there. The difference is only something a lawyer could love. Tesla took features and items that were previously included in the car and made them paid options. So yes, the base price didn't change but the base car got worse. The bottom line was to get the same car as before you had to pay more. Granted it was ~7% vs Rivian's larger jump.

 

[Jabbahop]

The Long Range Model Y starts at over 58,990 318 miles. A 300 mile Cybertruck for 50k I doubt will happen.

Model Y now $63K

 

[WhiteWi]

Model Y now $63K

Wow indeed

 

[Ogre]

Model Y now $63K

Yeah... I've been a long holdout to the idea that Tesla might hang onto launch prices. Seems like every $1000 the Model Y increases makes it a bit less likely.

I actually think this increases the chances of a lower end model with less range though. Just to keep something near the original offerings.

Going to be an interesting launch for certain.

 

[raptor5244]

Yeah... I've been a long holdout to the idea that Tesla might hang onto launch prices. Seems like every $1000 the Model Y increases makes it a bit less likely.

I actually think this increases the chances of a lower end model with less range though. Just to keep something near the original offerings.

Going to be an interesting launch for certain.

Back when demand was a bit softer and the supply chain wasn't a disaster there was a possibility of a $49.9k Dual Motor CT. Those days are long gone now. Probably $65k minimum now if we ever see it.

 

[MGMiller]

One thing to not lose sight of is manufacturing technology.

Ford and Rivian are building trucks the way all legacy manufactures have always done. The CT is going to be built using the world's largest gigapress along with structural battery pack, an exoskeleton with flat body panels made from unpainted stainless steel, flat glass, etc. These technologies allow for a significant improvement in build rate and profit per unit. The CT should get assembled more rapidly than any other Tesla vehicle and at a lower cost, depending on raw materials pricing.

Volkswagens CEO was lamenting that it takes them around 30 hours to build an ID3, while Tesla can build a model 3 in 10 hours. I believe the assembly time difference for the CT vs other EV trucks will be even greater. The profit per unit for all Tesla vehicles is already much higher than for legacy auto makers because of this technology, and for the CT it will be even more so.

This increased profit per unit should give Tesla more room for price adjustments while maintaining a profit.

 

[Ogre]

Back when demand was a bit softer and the supply chain wasn't a disaster there was a possibility of a $49.9k Dual Motor CT. Those days are long gone now. Probably $65k minimum now if we ever see it.

Tesla is planning on selling 250k units a year. They won't move that kind of volume selling $100k trucks. The dual motor truck means they can go a bit crazier with the Quad/ Plaid and maintain their volume goals and Musk's goal of affordability.

Inflation would be around $56k-58k. That's about on pace with what other truck makers have boosted prices over the past couple years. It's also a bit lower than Rivian's pricing for their dual motor truck. Which makes sense given Musks comments about Rivian pricing.

I could see $65k though. That's where they went with the Model Y, but that wasn't due to materials costs, that was just demand.

 

[raptor5244]

Tesla is planning on selling 250k units a year. They won't move that kind of volume selling $100k trucks. The dual motor truck means they can go a bit crazier with the Quad/ Plaid and maintain their volume goals and Musk's goal of affordability.

Inflation would be around $56k-58k. That's about on pace with what other truck makers have boosted prices over the past couple years. It's also a bit lower than Rivian's pricing for their dual motor truck. Which makes sense given Musks comments about Rivian pricing.

I could see $65k though. That's where they went with the Model Y, but that wasn't due to materials costs, that was just demand.

I think demand will be the issue moving forward. Maybe once we have more competition on the lots but this market needs to settle down. A local dealer by me is selling the new Tundra for $20k over MSRP with no issue. We need the supply chain to get back on track and then we can start thinking about rational prices.

 

[Ogre]

I think demand will be the issue moving forward. Maybe once we have more competition on the lots but this market needs to settle down. A local dealer by me is selling the new Tundra for $20k over MSRP with no issue. We need the supply chain to get back on track and then we can start thinking about rational prices.

Demand is definitely crazy.

I suspect demand is going to be a “problem” for EV makers for some time. The market is starting to pivot and nobody can manufacture EVs in sufficient volume right now.