Image if CT actually launches at advertised prices: What will other EV trucks do?!

[Ogre]

@glide Facts?

LOL, we’re talking about multiple products which are months or years in the future.

There are zero facts. It’s 100% pure speculation. Look at the title of the thread.

You are off arguing nonsense nobody said and now being insulting because people called you on it.

 

[Ogre]

The media still calls the Bolt a Tesla killer.

GM After 6 Months Will Again Plug In Its Tesla Killer - TheStreet

General Motors in September had suspended the production of this symbolic, and hugely important, vehicle for a battery-related problem.

www.thestreet.com

 

[glide]

@glide Facts?

LOL, we’re talking about multiple products which are months or years in the future.

There are zero facts. It’s 100% pure speculation. Look at the title of the thread.

You are off arguing nonsense nobody said and now being insulting because people called you on it.

The only fact is that 4680 cells are vaporware at this stage. There is no argument or speculation and no one is calling me on anything.

Just a bunch of fanbois who don’t like to hear bad news when it comes to Tesla.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

If 4680 cells are being produced and installed in M3s which are being sold, how is it vaporware? at what point would it not be vaporware?

 

[outdoors]

I agree with @glide. I don't know how you come out with a product substantially either higher in price or lower performance, and get away with it. Maybe option it up, but what was on the screen better be darn close.

Just because you can sell it for whatever in today's market. Doesn't mean you do.

Elon is going to have to decide if this is a hill he wants to stand on with the truck market and try to keep his word. Or he buckles to the street name Wall to keep margins up. Either way he was beat. I think a year head start in truck world will not be inconsequential.

 

[glide]

If 4680 cells are being produced and installed in M3s which are being sold, how is it vaporware? at what point would it not be vaporware?

They aren’t. Show me a Model 3 in a consumers hands with a 4680 pack.

They do not exist.

It would stop being vaporware the moment a consumer is able to buy and take delivery of one. How is this so difficult for people to understand?

 

[Ogre]

Texas storage lots getting filled up with cars powered by a mythical source. Maybe they have thousands of trained gerbils powering them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494352640305680388

Who knows…

 

[Alset Srotom]

Texas storage lots getting filled up with cars powered by a mythical source. Maybe they have thousands of trained gerbils powering them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494352640305680388

Who knows…

Let us know when someone gets a 4680 unit delivered.

 

[Ogre]

Let us know when someone gets a 4680 unit delivered.

Why bother when you’ll just cook up some other nonsense.

 

[glide]

Why bother when you’ll just cook up some other nonsense.

Now you’re just trolling. Vehicles with 4680 cells are not being delivered to customers as of today. That is a cold hard fact.

And rather than providing any evidence to the contrary, you have moved into deflection mode. Sorry, there’s simply no way to spin this one in Tesla’s favor.

I know that makes the fanbois feel sad.

 

[Ogre]

Now you’re just trolling. Vehicles with 4680 cells are not being delivered to customers as of today. That is a cold hard fact.

And rather than providing any evidence to the contrary, you have moved into deflection mode. Sorry, there’s simply no way to spin this one in Tesla’s favor.

I know that makes the fanbois feel sad.

No way to spin these cars built with cells you say don’t exist in Tesla’s favor.

Nope.

As I said above. Doesn’t matter what anybody posts. @glide will spin it backwards with more nonsense.

 

[glide]

No way to spin these cars built with cells you say don’t exist in Tesla’s favor.

Nope.

As I said above. Doesn’t matter what anybody posts. @glide will spin it backwards with more nonsense.

Once again. Show me a consumer who has, in their possession, as of today, any Tesla vehicle with 4680 cells.

You cannot. Give it up.

 

[Ogre]

LOL.

What a clown.

We’ve gone from “It doesn’t exist” to now we need to see keys in someone’s hands.

Next comes “You can’t prove blah”

Just keep moving them goalposts.

 

[glide]

LOL.

What a clown.

We’ve gone from “It doesn’t exist” to now we need to see keys in someone’s hands.

Next comes “You can’t prove blah”

Just keep moving them goalposts.

No. We started talking about the Cybertruck.

Then you started talking about M3’s with 4680’s then MY’s with 4680’s.

And still not a single customer has a Tesla with 4680’s.

Talk about moving the goalposts…pretty clear who the clown is.

 

[WhiteWi]

Now you’re just trolling. Vehicles with 4680 cells are not being delivered to customers as of today. That is a cold hard fact.

And rather than providing any evidence to the contrary, you have moved into deflection mode. Sorry, there’s simply no way to spin this one in Tesla’s favor.

I know that makes the fanbois feel sad.

Show me F150 lighting delivered to a customer? Vaporware

 

[Ogre]

I agree with @glide. I don't know how you come out with a product substantially either higher in price or lower performance, and get away with it. Maybe option it up, but what was on the screen better be darn close.

Just because you can sell it for whatever in today's market. Doesn't mean you do.

Elon is going to have to decide if this is a hill he wants to stand on with the truck market and try to keep his word. Or he buckles to the street name Wall to keep margins up. Either way he was beat. I think a year head start in truck world will not be inconsequential.

We don’t know how big a head start anyone is going to have at this point. We’d first have to know when the Cybertruck starts shipping. We don’t even know when Ford will start producing trucks.

Tesla has a weird truck. They need it to be rad and they need to have a great price for their weird concept to work. Whether Ford or Rivian do well is irrelevant.

People are naval gazing about competition entirely too much. So long as all of these companies make good trucks at a decent price, they will sell every one they make. The big question is going to be 3-4 years down the road when these companies are able to produce enough trucks to saturate the market.

 

[powderpc]

Obviously we are still in a state of wishes and dreams with the CT, however I wanted to vent/post something regarding options and cost. Assuming Tesla delivers and is able to produce at the price-points originally advertised, and what we know about current options for available Tesla models. There really isn't a lot of added options you would be expected to pay for if you wanted it, given all the built in options they advertised with it. (And this is kind of the dumb beauty with Tesla in general)

Exterior options:
Wheels and Tires: Ok lets say $2-$3K
Maybe an Off-road Lighting Kit: Imagine if that center light bar that was on the proto is an option ($1K)
Winch? $1K
Those deployable integrated ramps: My guess is that will be an option $1K
Skid Plate Package (Already has one sort of) (Doubtful) ($1K)
Automatic/ deployable steps/rails ($2K)

What could they possibly put on the interior?
Maybe an entertainment system for rear-seat passengers?
Interior Lighting customization
Smart glass roof (electrically charged privacy glass) $1K (I'm actually kind of surprised Tesla doesn't already offer something like this (unless its illegal for consumer cars)
Night vision option (Even Jeep has this now) $1K
HUD: $1K
I'd definitely pay for no Yoke (Yes, Throw your stones at me now!!) $500
I'd also pay for an additional cluster display (which according to some spy shots, looks like CT might actually get one!!$ 3-$4K

Trucks in general are the most optioned out vehicles out there. I know that is not Tesla's game, and I actually like that, because it obviously aids in production and also the customer pretty much knows what he/she is getting.

But the reason I say this is more an exercise in comparing to other EV Trucks. Remember when Ford announced the F150 Lightning? Starting at $39K! Wow amazing right?! Except you can't get the max battery pack in the base version (which would have put it around $49K(ish) for a 300 mi range EV Truck. Want that max range? Well now you have to step up to the XLT, but you get all these "extra options" that you cannot de-select, which make the price of that truck start at $72K before tax rebates (So $65K). I imagine that Chevy will do the same thing based on the initial literature around their 24 Silverado EV.

Rivian is the only one so far that is even remotely close to CT initial numbers. Their options are nice, and if you wanted them you buy them, but bare bones you get a really nice interior, lots of power, a smaller form factor, and a pretty good looking/unique vehicle for $60K after tax incentives. That's still $10K more than mid-tier CT was advertised as, and we can argue if its worth $10K more or not. (I recognize this is a Tesla forum so it will always swing towards the "Hell No! Territory") But in the larger EV Truck picture, Rivian has brought a compelling and competitively priced vehicle to the market, whereas the Legacy auto makers have not. They basically said, only Ford/Chevy Fan boys will buy this truck and because of that, it will be a premium product (lets not even get into the dealer markups!!)

So after all that, if a mid-tier 300 mi CT can be produced for even $55K or maybe a little more, it still ends up possibly being a better buy than a Rivian. Don't bring the SuperCharging Network into this conversation, especially since it looks like it might be opening up for more EV's. Take that out of the equation, it really comes down to how compelling the CT can be when compared to the Rivian. The other trucks are just not there in my opinion, both in cost, shady dealer and manufacturer practices, and perceived value.

This is a great post to breakdown very clearly Tesla's basic business model when it comes to pricing and how basic economic expectations make it highly unlikely that we see a $40k CT (at least made in the US).

1) Sell your most expensive products first to maximize your margins (Roadster --> Model S --> Model X --> M3 --> MY). Note how Tesla continues to use a strange "after potential savings" price by default on their website. Every manufacturer plays pricing games. You just have to understand the strategy. Tesla has a very simple one.

2) Based on #1, you can see that orders for a Plaid get shipped before orders for the S and M3P orders get shipped before M3LR, etc. This allows them to maximize their cashflow and growth by ensuring they don't lose the most elastic sales to competition. By elastic I mean that they know their less wealthy customers are willing to wait longer/suffer more to get the product.

3) As this relates to CT, I can guarantee you that no CT will ever be sold for $40k unless we suffer some debilitating recession and commodity prices crash hard. Steel continues to trade at 2X+ pre-pandemic prices. The general strategy for Tesla is to delay unfeasible versions of products (and entire product lines) until they become feasible and introduce profitable "versions" slowly as a delay tactic. And given their high stock valuation they can't afford to sell anything at a loss anymore as that would be catastrophic to their stock price. You'll probably see a $150k CT with quad motor, then trimotors, and perhaps in 2025+ dual and single motor versions assuming inflation has run its course and Tesla has made a few leaps in battery costs. They're wiling to bet that by the time most are able to order their vehicle most will choose to spend more rather than continue waiting.

4) Unlike many other companies Tesla builds their products strategically to maximize (supply chain) efficiency from the design stage. This is fundamental to their business model and now they're reaping the spoils (in terms of stock valuation). Vertical supply chain, no sales network, no PR department, no buttons or door handles. Unfortunately, these efficiencies can't fix the problem of something that doesn't materialize (FSD, 4680, bulletproof glass, cheap stainless steel, cheaper/lighter batteries, etc.). If you're hoping to see a $40k CT you're going to be waiting a while. I wouldn't be fantasizing about options. You have a better chance of making more money and getting a Rivian than you do of seeing a $40k CT in the next 3 years.

If the Ford Maverick hybrid can be a $40k truck in 2022 I highly doubt a stainless steel Tesla filled with high-tech gadgetry and fancy glass will cost anywhere near $40k EVER unless the economy tanks so hard we enter a major deflationary spiral. If that's the case you won't even be able to afford the $40k CT!

 

[powderpc]

This is a great post to breakdown very clearly Tesla's basic business model when it comes to pricing and how basic economic expectations make it highly unlikely that we see a $40k CT (at least made in the US).

1) Sell your most expensive products first to maximize your margins (Roadster --> Model S --> Model X --> M3 --> MY). Note how Tesla continues to use a strange "after potential savings" price by default on their website. Every manufacturer plays pricing games. You just have to understand the strategy. Tesla has a very simple one.

2) Based on #1, you can see that orders for a Plaid get shipped before orders for the S and M3P orders get shipped before M3LR, etc. This allows them to maximize their cashflow and growth by ensuring they don't lose the most elastic sales to competition. By elastic I mean that they know their less wealthy customers are willing to wait longer/suffer more to get the product.

3) As this relates to CT, I can guarantee you that no CT will ever be sold for $40k unless we suffer some debilitating recession and commodity prices crash hard. Steel continues to trade at 2X+ pre-pandemic prices. The general strategy for Tesla is to delay unfeasible versions of products (and entire product lines) until they become feasible and introduce profitable "versions" slowly as a delay tactic. And given their high stock valuation they can't afford to sell anything at a loss anymore as that would be catastrophic to their stock price. You'll probably see a $150k CT with quad motor, then trimotors, and perhaps in 2025+ dual and single motor versions assuming inflation has run its course and Tesla has made a few leaps in battery costs. They're wiling to bet that by the time most are able to order their vehicle most will choose to spend more rather than continue waiting.

4) Unlike many other companies Tesla builds their products strategically to maximize (supply chain) efficiency from the design stage. This is fundamental to their business model and now they're reaping the spoils (in terms of stock valuation). Vertical supply chain, no sales network, no PR department, no buttons or door handles. Unfortunately, these efficiencies can't fix the problem of something that doesn't materialize (FSD, 4680, bulletproof glass, cheap stainless steel, cheaper/lighter batteries, etc.). If you're hoping to see a $40k CT you're going to be waiting a while. I wouldn't be fantasizing about options. You have a better chance of making more money and getting a Rivian than you do of seeing a $40k CT in the next 3 years.

If the Ford Maverick hybrid can be a $40k truck in 2022 I highly doubt a stainless steel Tesla filled with high-tech gadgetry and fancy glass will cost anywhere near $40k EVER unless the economy tanks so hard we enter a major deflationary spiral. If that's the case you won't even be able to afford the $40k CT!

I forgot to mention Tesla's other strategy of reducing features on lower priced versions to the point that they are undesirable, see Model S 60, etc.

So yeah, maybe they make a $40k CT with realistically 150 miles of range and 80% of people opt to spend $20k to upgrade the battery ... and then they say oh, we're cancelling the single motor because of lack of demand and then the new price creeps up to whatever it needs to be...

 

[powderpc]

I forgot to mention Tesla's other strategy of reducing features on lower priced versions to the point that they are undesirable, see Model S 60, etc.

So yeah, maybe they make a $40k CT with realistically 150 miles of range and 80% of people opt to spend $20k to upgrade the battery ... and then they say oh, we're cancelling the single motor because of lack of demand and then the new price creeps up to whatever it needs to be...

The one thing that MAYBE gets you a $40k CT is a subscription model. Like Apple sells you a phone with 64 GB and then says, hey if you want to actually store anything, we'll charge you $10 a month .... so in theory maybe they play the Apple game where you're either generating recurring subscription income or upgrading at a substantial cost. Rivian is definitely counting on this as I believe they might have negative or even zero gross margins on their vehicles.

 

[WhiteWi]

Lol there will be no Tri motor. And Dual motor will sell as much if not more than quad. I bet most people will drop Tri motor to dual once they see new prices.