How about we take the stock price of SPWR and SCTY on Dec 31, 2017, and see which company had the greatest stock price gain % from this past Friday?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
How about we take the stock price of SPWR and SCTY on Dec 31, 2017, and see which company had the greatest stock price gain % from this past Friday?
I wonder if anyone else held any of their SCTY options they bought back when it was around 40 before it started the dip down below 30 ... I had 25 options that I bought at the very top before they started to dip and held on to them because they had fallen so much in value I figured what the heck. I did not even wait to see what the news was when I received a text from my brother and friend that SCTY was up so much. Checked the options and they had over doubled to get in the green. They expired in Jan ... holding 10 more I had bought somewhere on the slide down ... I think when SCTY was around 35 that expire in Mar. It was very nice for the account to receive a large Band Aid since I have so many underwater options in TSLA right now!
I think I am going to take some of the profits and invest in Canadian Solar after I do a little more research this weekend to make sure the fundamentals support it. (p.s. Without doing my due diligence I think Dave has this bet in the bag!) In Dec 2017 Solar City will be well on its way to becoming the largest power provider in the world (Muhahaha)
I think I am going to take some of the profits and invest in Canadian Solar after I do a little more research this weekend to make sure the fundamentals support it. (p.s. Without doing my due diligence I think Dave has this bet in the bag!) In Dec 2017 Solar City will be well on its way to becoming the largest power provider in the world (Muhahaha)
One of my key considerations for who will have biggest market cap (and shareholders returns), and the fact that I bet on SCTY, is international expansion.
Currently SCTY is only US based, where SPWR is international, and has Total backing them. SCTY's stock is going to pop when they inevitably announce a deal with Direct Energys parent (Centrica), expand into Europe, Asia, Africa, etc. Now with the Zep purchase they will also have a better foothold into international markets.
I own both SCTY and SPWR, but more SCTY mostly due to the Friday 25%.
I am ambitious for all time highs in the coming weeks.
Currently SCTY is only US based, where SPWR is international, and has Total backing them. SCTY's stock is going to pop when they inevitably announce a deal with Direct Energys parent (Centrica), expand into Europe, Asia, Africa, etc. Now with the Zep purchase they will also have a better foothold into international markets.
I own both SCTY and SPWR, but more SCTY mostly due to the Friday 25%.
I am ambitious for all time highs in the coming weeks.
InTheShadows
Active Member
The funniest part is the attention to the specifics of a bet for $1. It'll cost more than that to meet the condition of meeting in person to hand the $1 to the winner. And with inflation we all know that by 2019 that dollar will really be worth 60 cents or less.
An an interesting point on the short-sided ness of the article posted above about solar and the midnight hour. To use a word from on of the other threads the us solar market is peanuts when compared to the global solar market.
An an interesting point on the short-sided ness of the article posted above about solar and the midnight hour. To use a word from on of the other threads the us solar market is peanuts when compared to the global solar market.
Norse
Active Member
Is anyone here a SCTY customer using them for solar energy? I'd like to ask you a question, either here in public or via PM or email. Perhaps knowledgeable investors could answer this also.
My question is about the inverters.
Typical inverters were large units, controlled an array of panels. The DC energy feeds into the inverter, gets converted to AC. A string of 10 (or X) panels comes into the inverter together, the inverter operates or converts energy a the efficiency of the least efficient panel. What this means is that if a panel is in the shade, all panels are in the shade. If a panel loses efficiency, all panels lose efficiency.
I have solar panels with a microinverter provided by a company called Enphase. The microinverter converts the energy right at the panel, allows all the panels to work at maximum efficiency. If one panel goes down the remaining still work at maximum efficiency. I can monitor each individual panel online via many devices real time and historically. Enphase has recently come out with an inverter that increases maximum output from 215 to 250 watts.
SCTY seems to have the "Solarguard" thing for monitoring. With solarguard, does this allow monitoring of each individual panel?
Does SCTY use microinverters or the older technology?
Can a customer buy a system from them or is it only leasing? If a customer buys, is there a recurring charge for the monitoring? (Enphase charges $2/panel/year for my residential system)
If there is a charge for monitoring on purchased systems, how does this charge differ retail vs large scale system?
If SCTY uses micro inverters what is the maximum output on them?
My amateur ENPH discussion here: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/10/enph-research-and-update.html
My direct email here: [email protected]
Thank you for any help you can provide as I evaluate both these companies businesses
My question is about the inverters.
Typical inverters were large units, controlled an array of panels. The DC energy feeds into the inverter, gets converted to AC. A string of 10 (or X) panels comes into the inverter together, the inverter operates or converts energy a the efficiency of the least efficient panel. What this means is that if a panel is in the shade, all panels are in the shade. If a panel loses efficiency, all panels lose efficiency.
I have solar panels with a microinverter provided by a company called Enphase. The microinverter converts the energy right at the panel, allows all the panels to work at maximum efficiency. If one panel goes down the remaining still work at maximum efficiency. I can monitor each individual panel online via many devices real time and historically. Enphase has recently come out with an inverter that increases maximum output from 215 to 250 watts.
SCTY seems to have the "Solarguard" thing for monitoring. With solarguard, does this allow monitoring of each individual panel?
Does SCTY use microinverters or the older technology?
Can a customer buy a system from them or is it only leasing? If a customer buys, is there a recurring charge for the monitoring? (Enphase charges $2/panel/year for my residential system)
If there is a charge for monitoring on purchased systems, how does this charge differ retail vs large scale system?
If SCTY uses micro inverters what is the maximum output on them?
My amateur ENPH discussion here: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/10/enph-research-and-update.html
My direct email here: [email protected]
Thank you for any help you can provide as I evaluate both these companies businesses
SPWR is already very close to a $5b cap right now. Do you actually see a possibility where both companies will fail to reach $5b in 4 years? Just curious.
A friend of mine has a solarcity system and they must monitor each panel individually because they called my friend to schedule a panel replacement. when they arrived with the new panel, they knew exactly what panel to replace.
JPP
Active Member
I have an east-west system (no suitable south facing roof in No CA). My SC 16kW system uses Canadian Solar panels (63 of them) with individual SolarEdge modules on each panel to handle shading/panel failure. My understanding is that these add-on modules (which clip to the back of the panel and are in series) allow for 'bypassing' of a bad/shaded/underperforming panel. I have 4 individual SolarEdge inverters, for 4 strings of panels The inverters are large. Each inverter individually reports the entire output to SC via Solarguard (inverters send data via Zigbee protocol to a small receiver which is connected to my home Ethernet and my router to the Internet). I can see my output by the hour from each of the 4 inverters on the SC web site. If a string starts to underproduce, SC knows about it, and then they would come out, check that string, and replace the bad panel. AFAIK my system does not report which panel in the string is bad, just that the string itself is underperforming. Presumably then SC would send out a crew to check each panel in the string and replace one as needed. They guarantee my system output, as I am just buying power from them uner a Power Purchase Agreement (did not buy or lease), so it is in their best interest to keep the system performing as engineered.
Norse
Active Member
No surprise the whole market is down pre. However there are some good news coming out:
Canadian Artes Company (CanadianSolar) solar cell technology in the International Society "EUPVSEC" a speech, introduced a new generation of solar cell development situation.
http://translate.google.com.hk/tran...guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20131014/464683.shtml
and Photovoltaic industry rules a number of Group companies or closed:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/...eek.com/2013-10/ART-260008-8480-28733494.html
Solar should really be up today, well see what happens.
Canadian Artes Company (CanadianSolar) solar cell technology in the International Society "EUPVSEC" a speech, introduced a new generation of solar cell development situation.
http://translate.google.com.hk/tran...guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20131014/464683.shtml
and Photovoltaic industry rules a number of Group companies or closed:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/...eek.com/2013-10/ART-260008-8480-28733494.html
Solar should really be up today, well see what happens.
Gtoffo
Member
Norse
Active Member
Norse
Active Member
Yes, my plan here is to still be allin, tho I will sell my stocks today and have the money ready for options when a deal is done. This is aboviously not a safe play, but im ready to take that gamble, but the risk/reward is really nice IMO.
Gtoffo
Member
Woa....SCTY just had a 1$ drop on crazy high volume. Some big investor bailing out or a cascade of stop loss orders?
Norse
Active Member
France is banning fracking, which is good. "And that’s not just talk. France has ambitious goals for a low-carbon future and is currently considering a tax on carbon emissions and a nuclear tax. Revenue would go to renewables and energy efficiency standards. France plans to cut fossil fuel use by 30 percent by 2030, at the same time that it de-emphasizes the nuclear power that provides three quarters of the nation’s energy." This is what I have been talking about, countries will follow Norway and the others that will benefit renewable energy and EV cars.
Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/14/frances-ban-fracking-absolute/#C9ktwo7mkrLTUr5Q.99
Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/14/frances-ban-fracking-absolute/#C9ktwo7mkrLTUr5Q.99
Earnings preannouncements are just speculation on my part, but last quarter we had SOL and then TSL and YGE preannounce earnings.
Some companies gave, what I would call soft-ball guidance for Q3, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-announcement. Some companies do it and some don't, I am not sure what the threshold is to preannounce.
JKS had a stellar Q2, but they did not preannounce, since they do not give gross margin guidance (which was their main reason for a beat) and only slightly exceeded their upper end MW shipment guidance. Nonetheless they had a great quarter.
CSIQ and SOL on the other hand do give gross margin guidance and they guided for 10%-12% and 7%-9% respectively.
SOL had 7.3% GM in Q2 on $0.63 ASP's and $0.53 avg. cost. They guided towards $0.66 ASP in Q3 and flat cost. According to math, their GM should go up by 5% if this ASP proves true, which will lead to 12% GM. If they also ship more modules than they guided for at the top end, then we might see another preannouncement. At the same time you don't want to preannounce every quarter, because then the market will start expecting it.
CSIQ on the other hand guided towards 10%-12% GM without any (high margin) power plant sales. They had 12.8% GM in Q2 with one power plant sale. In Q3 they will already have 2 power plant sales. This could lead to a 14% - 15% GM. I also expect them to have higher capacity utilitization rates than in Q2 (some capacity sat idle), which could increase GM by another 1%-2%. It is very likely that CSIQ will have highe ASP's in Q3, since all of the data points to rising ASP's for tier 1 Chinese solar panels. I am also hoping for some reduced costs as well. They also closed the sale of 2 power plants to Blackrock on the last day of Q3. I am not sure how these sales are accounted for on the books, but there has to be some significance to the Sep 30th. date, which the same date they closed the other 2 plant sales to TransCanada (these are accounted for on a cash basis).
All that being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see CSIQ with gross margins near 20% in Q3. Highly unlikely, but it is a realistic possibility.
CSIQ also guided towards 410MW - 430MW of module shipments in Q3, which sounds low to me since they had 455MW in Q2.
If I am correct in my assumptions, then I would expect the company to preannounce earings. Then again they guided towards 380MW - 420MW and 9%-11% GM in Q2 and delivered 455MW and 12.8% GM, with no preannouncement. IMO those numbers were not quite good for a preannouncement, especially since they probably knew they were going to lose $0.40 EPS on currency exchange (which will not happen in Q3 according to my research, possibly break even or maybe even slight positive). But if they reach the 15% - 20% GM in Q3 and deliver above the high end of their MW shipment estimate, then a preannouncement would be the rational thing to do.
This is all speculation on my part, so please do your own due diligence and do not rely on this information.
Some companies gave, what I would call soft-ball guidance for Q3, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-announcement. Some companies do it and some don't, I am not sure what the threshold is to preannounce.
JKS had a stellar Q2, but they did not preannounce, since they do not give gross margin guidance (which was their main reason for a beat) and only slightly exceeded their upper end MW shipment guidance. Nonetheless they had a great quarter.
CSIQ and SOL on the other hand do give gross margin guidance and they guided for 10%-12% and 7%-9% respectively.
SOL had 7.3% GM in Q2 on $0.63 ASP's and $0.53 avg. cost. They guided towards $0.66 ASP in Q3 and flat cost. According to math, their GM should go up by 5% if this ASP proves true, which will lead to 12% GM. If they also ship more modules than they guided for at the top end, then we might see another preannouncement. At the same time you don't want to preannounce every quarter, because then the market will start expecting it.
CSIQ on the other hand guided towards 10%-12% GM without any (high margin) power plant sales. They had 12.8% GM in Q2 with one power plant sale. In Q3 they will already have 2 power plant sales. This could lead to a 14% - 15% GM. I also expect them to have higher capacity utilitization rates than in Q2 (some capacity sat idle), which could increase GM by another 1%-2%. It is very likely that CSIQ will have highe ASP's in Q3, since all of the data points to rising ASP's for tier 1 Chinese solar panels. I am also hoping for some reduced costs as well. They also closed the sale of 2 power plants to Blackrock on the last day of Q3. I am not sure how these sales are accounted for on the books, but there has to be some significance to the Sep 30th. date, which the same date they closed the other 2 plant sales to TransCanada (these are accounted for on a cash basis).
All that being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see CSIQ with gross margins near 20% in Q3. Highly unlikely, but it is a realistic possibility.
CSIQ also guided towards 410MW - 430MW of module shipments in Q3, which sounds low to me since they had 455MW in Q2.
If I am correct in my assumptions, then I would expect the company to preannounce earings. Then again they guided towards 380MW - 420MW and 9%-11% GM in Q2 and delivered 455MW and 12.8% GM, with no preannouncement. IMO those numbers were not quite good for a preannouncement, especially since they probably knew they were going to lose $0.40 EPS on currency exchange (which will not happen in Q3 according to my research, possibly break even or maybe even slight positive). But if they reach the 15% - 20% GM in Q3 and deliver above the high end of their MW shipment estimate, then a preannouncement would be the rational thing to do.
This is all speculation on my part, so please do your own due diligence and do not rely on this information.
Similar threads
- Locked
