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2 others both in 16xx range. Looks like something moved yesterday. First consumer batch in production?

Agreed. That's why those indicators should be used only to asses the GENERAL trend. Certainly not an indication of precise numbers of units due to all the uncertainties we have discussed.

Agreed. Also VINs include several digits that are dependant on configuration (e.g. dual or single motor etc.), production, and model year. So they can only be assigned once the configuration has been confirmed by the client and production has been planned. Otherwise the car might end up having...

Another very good indicator. If we reach any meaningful weekly rate we should see some change there.

@Waiting4M3 for your records VIN 40 was delivered today (saw personal pictures of the new car). We already know VINs are a fickle thing. But highest VIN + frequency sighting should still give us a good idea of delivery pace.

VIN 1096 spotted among 20-30 others according to this comment. Six Model 3s in Playa Vista • r/teslamotors Edit: images of VINs Playa Vista Model 3 staging area

I agree. I would expect delivery time to be at least a month after end of production so we should be (to be prudent) lagging by a couple of months with VIN sightings. On the other hand we know from Tesla that VINs are usually assigned a month and a half before production for Model S & X...

If they are producing 700 cars a week or any other significative number we should see with a delay of weeks a big spike in sighted maximum VINs. Delay should be equal to delivery time+sighting time. Not sure what the delivery time is for CA deliveries of Model S though.... I would estimate...

Thanks. If we had to estimate, what would the lag between production and VIN sighting be? How long since end o prod and delivery for model S if we don't have hard data about 3. If we are indeed at 700 a week as some reports suggest we should soon see a big spike in highest VIN sighted.

no the highest but still close to 1000 so noteworthy. Should we post all of them to create the VIN graph we saw a couple of days back? How was the data collected for that graph? EDIT: just saw the graph was by @Waiting4M3 so I already know he has all the known deliveries covered :-D you are...

Looks like Itay has only recently started to cover TSLA so no way of evaluating his past record... "we sensed a level of confidence that recently identified issues are on their way to being fixed and that the new timetable to reach 5k/week (end of Q1’18) allows for some cushion." That's news...

Very interesting. It's a bit off topic but I've always wondered how Tesla could use that train line and where it leads. Could be a pretty big factor for logistics if instead of all those trucks you get one big train to the east coast. The self driving parking is amazing.... think about the...

Worried about that. But couldn't resist some LEAP bull call spreads under 300$... buckling in for some ruff times. See ya all in 6 months.

BMW grew revenues y/y this quarter by 0.4% not 4%. Stock value is based on future expectations and growth rate. You have been around this forum for a while so I'm sure you are aware of that. I'm buying. See ya in 15 months!

Only if their growth rate will be 0% y/y at that point just like BMW and working on old tech without a future. Which I don't think it will be so it will be substantially higher than that.

Yes. In 9-15 months. That would mean another year of 100% growth rate y/y. It would make them 1/4th of BMW but growing at an astronomical rate and looking to keep growing while BMW stagnates (0.4% growth rate Y/Y !!!) and produces old tech. That's why I'm a buyer. EDIT: OK guys....my real...

The numbers aligned oddly 20B Quarterly vs 20B annually so my point was lost a little bit. Edited the post to clear things up a bit. My point is I think they will be in the same league in 9-15 months once M3 will be up and running. Not the same but TSLA will be 1/4th the size and growing...

No I'm paying BWM price for a company what I think will be 1/4th of BMW (don't forget X & S) in 9-15 months AND growing 100% y/y AND pushing the most advanced and future proof tech on the market. And that's forgetting everything about all the other products TSLA can tap into. Doesn't sound...

Those are quarterly revenue values. Updated original post to make it clear. With 500k cars TSLA will be in the same order of magnitude in terms of revenues (and almost in terms of deliveries) as BMW (and we are talking of a timeframe of 9-15 months). The difference will be that one company is...

TSLA Market Cap: 50B BMW Market Cap: 50B TSLA Revenue Q3: 2.8B (+120% compared to last year) BWM Revenue Q3: 28.4B (+0.4% compared to last year) What's the difference? If Tesla were to sell 500.000 M3s a year that would bring their revenues to the same level as BMW today (ASP of 40k$ = 20B)...

Is that really the key factor for a CFO?

Those calls are just unbearable....... I get the useless questions perfectly and then Elon always sounds like he's talking from a war zone.

I like those strategies. Only problem is if you "get it wrong" with timing the LEAPS you are screwed as time is value and you need to get the timing right. Really have to be sure it's a bottom. My LEAPS expired in JAN. Can't believe I missed this run by 20 days considering I placed my bet 2...

Boy..... shorts are gonna get it today..................................................................................... tuff to be them! I expected BAD news regarding M3....not GOOD news. Was in defensive mode waiting for a dip since JAN LEAPS expiry. Glad my "defensive" position means...

We must be entering short squeeze territory here.... it just keeps going up! Pity most of my options expired friday..... lucky I exercised some of them so I have some stock to ride. I have a theory which is merely based on feeling: EVIDENCE - steady stock rise within clearly defined boundaries...

Almost flat in the end. Looks like we are back in the channel. Trend would suggest we keep stagnating and then push up once we touch/break lower bound of the channel.

Have mercy on me..... lots of options held until expiry..... total insanity over here.. managed to finally will myself to unload some so I'm feeling a bit better now. Now just hoping for insanity to take over and for TSLA to go to 300$ by EOD.

We are bouncing around the top of the channel close according to my ruff graph....could we be moving up to a parallel one where the previous high is the new low?

Hope so. It's possible but the trend of the last months has usually had a couple of days of stagnation after we have touched the upper limit. The trend+premarket would suggest possibly a strong open and closing flat. Hope I'm wrong and we breakout. Yesterday's action was really disappointing...

Once the stock "stabilised" around 10.44 there was a sharp rise with an increase in volume and we started dropping steadily. It felt like some algo was working against the stock swooping up all the bids.

Big volume spike in the morning is understandable but who sells at 243$ as the stock is climbing having seen the stock bounce off 250$ a couple of hours ago and after another catalyst? Any update on shares available for short?

VIDEO: Adam Jonas on the upgrade talking to CNBC saying he is "less skeptical" about M3 timeline Jonas on Tesla upgrade: 'Less skeptical' a fair character...

Can't figure out who would be selling right now.

Only explanation but market is -0.46%......I mean in terms of catalysts it doesn't get any better than this for TSLA

Action surprising after two big catalysts. Not sure what is going on.

Also of interest: "NHTSA notes that crash rates involving Tesla cars have dropped by almost 40 percent since the wide introduction of Autopilot. It also notes that its investigation did not find any defects in the design or implementation of Tesla’s automatic emergency braking systems (AEB) or...

Investigation into autopilot crash is over. NHTSA notes that crash rates involving Tesla cars have dropped by almost 40 percent since the wide introduction of Autopilot. It also notes that its investigation did not find any defects in the design or implementation of Tesla’s automatic emergency...

People are eating. Wait till they come back and pick up the bargain ;-) My 250$ calls still have a chance! I STILL BELIEVE

Big dip in NASDAQ. I think from 10.43 to 10.53 some also was trading TSLA down.

Odd trading activity. Feels like someone is opening a short position here. EDIT: volume back to normal. Also switched off? Stock climbing back up. EDIT2: sorry for excessive analysis and posting.....finished all my nails a couple of hours ago and need an alternative.

Looking at the book it looks like there are a lot of buyers at 245-6ish levels.

Market in the red. TSLA holding.

Channel has definitely been broken several times before. Needs to punch through with more conviction. Not a bad trend to stay in either.

here we go 248$ battle

Been there, done that. Watch out... you seem new around here. Many of us are heavy bulls but listen to more seasoned TSLA traders: you should proceed with caution. If you don't wan't to sell than at least get some protection (sell deep OTM LEAPS). Some of us have been riding the TSLA...

Closing straight calls off by selling deep OTM calls when stock is high has saved my ass more than a couple of times. Take it into consideration as a safety net.

Those ST options started out as LEAPS (bull call spreads). That story isn't ending well but at least not underwater at this point. But I was holding out of desperation and delusion NOT ability. Stay away from short term options folks. Fools gold.

What? My J20 250 LEAPS are worth almost 2 dollars according to IB......... Now the question is.....what to do with my other LEAPS that I was too lazy to trade for a heavy loss and now are almost alive. Sell at the open or wait for it?

Wonder if we actually break the trend here.... is it strong enough to keep us within the bounds or will we break free? (upside hopefully)

I think this is really lazy especially considering the recent news about DELIVERIES of large TE projects. It obviously has a material effect on valuation. HOWEVER I believe pricing in Tesla Mobility at this stage is probably a bit premature. We all think this will be a huge opportunity for TSLA...