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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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mitch672
Active Member
Found this Forbes article from November 19, 2013 warning us not to "catch a falling knife", checkout the numbers, it's fell $14 to $122 that day, down from it's all time high of $194.50 (at the time). We are only a bit below that now, the toughest part is watching profit disappear, and not selling.
Tesla: Don't Try And Catch A Falling Knife - Forbes
Tesla: Don't Try And Catch A Falling Knife - Forbes
hockeythug
Active Member
Days like this I just close my eyes and picture myself driving my future gen 3
InTheShadows
Active Member
I made two option purchases this am. The first is apr 195, the second one, I feel really good about was a June 190 when the stock was 187. I forced myself to buy because my gut said sell. I hope it was the right move.
My hypothesis for the selloff:
As we approach the one year anniversary of last year's Q1 blowout (and have already passed the one year anniversary of the beginning of the run-up) we may be seeing a new wave of profit-taking from investors taking advantage of the long-term capital gains tax rate.
As we approach the one year anniversary of last year's Q1 blowout (and have already passed the one year anniversary of the beginning of the run-up) we may be seeing a new wave of profit-taking from investors taking advantage of the long-term capital gains tax rate.
Bought Jan16 200 call for $45 and jan16 250 call for $30, today. Will continue to buy, if it goes down more. I look at Tesla in January 2016+, and see a bright future. Nothing has changed 
Only concern is that I don't know how IB consider my margin account
As I am up in the mountains of Norway, I don't have the tools here to fund anything at the moment. Do you know of any closed days at Nasdaq during Easter holidays?
Only concern is that I don't know how IB consider my margin account As I am up in the mountains of Norway, I don't have the tools here to fund anything at the moment. Do you know of any closed days at Nasdaq during Easter holidays?
Bought Jan16 200 call for $45 and jan16 250 call for $30, today. Will continue to buy, if it goes down more. I look at Tesla in January 2016+, and see a bright future. Nothing has changed
As I am up in the mountains of Norway, I don't have the tools here to fund anything at the moment. Do you know of any closed days at Nasdaq during Easter holidays?
The market is closed on Friday.
I have no doubt that TSLA will be higher in the future as well. Just want to point out that J16 LEAPS will not stop you from losing all of your money if you have bad luck.
E.g. TSLA can go to $400 by early next year and then we hit a recession and it drops to $120 by Jan. 2016. Even if you bought deep ITM 2016 LEAPS, you would still get wiped out under my scenario.
That's why it is better to buy shares than options. Options are good if you have a bullet proof strategy that consists of using various expirations, creating delayed construct bull call spreads, buying when IV is low and selling when IV is high, etc. Even then you can still get wiped out using options.
I think that options are too risky for most people to invest in. Just look at how your options performed in this epic bull market, and now consider how they will do if we get choppy markets going forward... (This post is not aimed at you directly Wenche
)Options are a strange beast. Did very well in Jan/Feb with them (way better than even stock) and have had a rough 6 weeks with them since. I still plan on using LEAPS and stocks with an occaisional foray into shorter term options. I have limited short term to 5% of my holdings since it is possible to lose an entire position if you guess wrong. I don't think LEAPS are a bad way to substitute for some stock holding though if you are looking for leverage and not afraid of the greater risk/reward ratio that they give you versus stock.
The market is closed on Friday.
I have no doubt that TSLA will be higher in the future as well. Just want to point out that J16 LEAPS will not stop you from losing all of your money if you have bad luck.
E.g. TSLA can go to $400 by early next year and then we hit a recession and it drops to $120 by Jan. 2016. Even if you bought deep ITM 2016 LEAPS, you would still get wiped out under my scenario.
That's why it is better to buy shares than options. Options are good if you have a bullet proof strategy that consists of using various expirations, creating delayed construct bull call spreads, buying when IV is low and selling when IV is high, etc. Even then you can still get wiped out using options.
I think that options are too risky for most people to invest in. Just look at how your options performed in this epic bull market, and now consider how they will do if we get choppy markets going forward... (This post is not aimed at you directly Wenche
Thank you for replying Sleepy
I still have my core stock holding of 1109 TSLA, that is what I could buy for nok 200k (usd 32k) back 16 months ago. A Norwegian shorter, spread at lot of FUD, and let me think I could get the stocks even cheaper, but I did not. I started with options (with no experience), funded another $51k, and bought mostly deep in the money options, far out. I have rolled some, traded some, and I will roll out to jan17, in November, or when possible. I have no stop loss, and my hedging against the world war III, would be my Statoil stocks. I believe in Tesla and Elon Musk, and will go all the way to TSLA $400. I still hold my core position , by the way :smile:
InTheShadows
Active Member
I agree. I also made the mistake with what I call mid term, 3-9 month options. I bought a bunch of Aprils of almost everything in January and February. However I didn't keep them as mid term as the time for closer. Because they were down I liked the leverage effect and kept the positions thinking that the recovery will come tomorrow. Well tomorrow never came, at least the recovery never came. The tomorrow's did as each tomorrow ate further and further into the value of the options.
I just talked to my account today and he said "We should see about sending in some extra for your quarterlies for the gains you had in January and February." Sadly I replied "I don't think that is necessary right now."
I'm still up YTD but no where near where I was at earlier. My cost bias is that expires in two days is pretty darn disgusting to say the least. And I've rolled three of the most valuable positions I had for April down and out to September. All three of those positions were roughly 75% losses.
When I look back I really messed up because in February when I cashed out a portion of my largest account, which is in optionshouse, that cash value was 2x that entire account value right now. Then I started catching the knives.
Don't feel bad, I think we have all caught the knives lately. My only savior today was the purchase of stock at $188.50 and sold at 194.50. Cashed out quick in a retirement account so no bad effects on gains. Helped offset the rest of the day being down, but still turned out to be another negative day. Started out April playing dips and selling on the rise doing quite well, but lately the rises have been short coming!
bsd
Member
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Ah yes ... my portfolio yesterday was worth about 33% of what it was in February. Having a large portion of it in TSLA LEAPs and CSIQ LEAPs didn't help :/ I've restructured it a few weeks back moving more into stock and lower strike options, but still the bleeding continues. I had ca 30% of the portfolio in cash when I cashed out with TSLA around $250 from most short term options, but got a bit cocky and gambled a bit more than I should have losing a grand here, a grand there ... Anyway, mostly moved off short term options when TSLA was in $230-240 range so recovery is definitely a possibility, but for example those $400 LEAPs for 2015 were probably a bad idea (worth about 25% of what their cost basis is). Oh well, we are also down ca $70 from peak. Going back up in the next couple of months would make the cuts on my hands worthwhile though
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Some information released yesterday by BMW on sales of i3:
Their factory in Leipzig ramped up production from 70 to 100 vehicles a day.
Member of the board of management Harald Krüger (Production) said “Bloomberg” that since beginning of this year more than 5.000 i3 have been produced.
The current production rate translates to about 20,000 vehicles for the full year, almost twice as much as BMW’s initial sales forecast.
electrive.net Denza, BMW, Japan, Nissan, Saleen, Chevrolet.
link in english:
BMW Lifts i3 Electric Car Production 43% on Higher Demand - Bloomberg
At least BMW sees some demand for EVs
Their factory in Leipzig ramped up production from 70 to 100 vehicles a day.
Member of the board of management Harald Krüger (Production) said “Bloomberg” that since beginning of this year more than 5.000 i3 have been produced.
The current production rate translates to about 20,000 vehicles for the full year, almost twice as much as BMW’s initial sales forecast.
electrive.net Denza, BMW, Japan, Nissan, Saleen, Chevrolet.
link in english:
BMW Lifts i3 Electric Car Production 43% on Higher Demand - Bloomberg
At least BMW sees some demand for EVs
InTheShadows
Active Member
For the sake of my April 210's I hope today we get news of gigafactory partner announcement, Q1 delivery exceeded announcement and was near xxxx, China demand is huge announcement. That should make them green again.
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