Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[CyberDutchie]

SolarShitty has had a bad, bad few weeks. I hope you guys are right and they will recover. I have some Oct 17 contracts that are still in the money but I'm on the edge of dumping them. Anything significant on the horizon that could turn the tide before Oct 17?

 

[sleepyhead]

Do you have an PPS estimate for SCTY? Also, are these options long term or near term?

I am tempted to get into Solar City at these levels, but only because its down ~25% from earlier this month, and its ER really didn't seem that bad. All solar stocks appear to have dropped substantially this month without necessarily under-performing in their earnings reports (at least not on the surface). Are people under the impression that this is just profit taking because of the massive gains this year, or is there another potential reason (like expectations being too high and leading to a sell off)? TSL's earnings report seems to have kick started a nice upward trend today for the Chinese solars - would it be enough though to reverse the downward trend we've been seeing this last month?

I just bought some J14 options because I thought that SCTY has been beaten down recently and trying to catch a falling knife. I don't particularly like investing in this company, because it is impossible to put a value on the stock. Buy low sell high, I hope.

 

[sleepyhead]

CSIQ up 8% today for no other reason than it is really freaking cheap - this after going up 5% yesterday. I am seriously worried that we are entering a short-term (2 month?) correction phase in the market, but I still pulled the trigger on solar two days ago; I couldn't pass up on the huge discounts. I am still a little worried with the Fed and everything, but I am ready to buy more if prices go down further.

Crazy world of investing in solar. Even at market open today it looked like the sector was going to come down hard today, only to do a huge turnaround 5 minutes later. Lots and Lots of uncertainty, volatility, and risk.

On Monday I bought some TSL, SOL, CSIQ, and SPWR. I bought some SCTY yesterday as well. I hope that solar starts making another run soon.

 

[Norse]

Got some tsl which I trippled. I really wanted the sep10 call, but was to late since im on holiday in Spain. Shame I didnt, theyre up 800%

 

[fjm9898]

sucks i missed out on the TSL run. I was looking at the new Jan 15 $15 options but i wonder how much more room TSL has to run.
Any insight?

 

[Norse]

sucks i missed out on the TSL run. I was looking at the new Jan 15 $15 options but i wonder how much more room TSL has to run.
Any insight?

Wow, my jan15 15$ didnt move yesterday, doubled today. However TSL has a long way to go, but JAN15 in solar is pretty nice risk/reward

 

[fjm9898]

that is true but right now the prices are probably inflated unless the stock continues up for another day or two. If it does then the price right now wouldnt seem so crazy, but if it pulls back i expect that price to tumble pretty quick.

 

[sleepyhead]

I think that TSL will either be at $30 or $3 by J15, a lot of risk for sure.

I bought a J15 $10 option for $1.56 on Monday and sold a J15 $12 option for $1.80 today. I pocketed $.24 and have potential for another $2 risk free return.

Obviously I would be better off holding the $10 J15 call naked if I though the stock will go to $30, but I have learned my lesson from being too greedy. Slow and steady wins the race.

 

[jeffro01]

Anyone here have any confidence that TSL will bump again tomorrow or is the consensus that the run has stopped post ER?

Jeff

 

[fjm9898]

I am holding off to see if the market tanks due to the Fed report here in about 15min. If the Market holds steady today i might buy a few TSL15 $15s.

- - - Updated - - -

Bought some Jan15 $15s on the small bounce the Fed report caused.

 

[tmont]

It looks like the market rebounded very quickly.

 

[fjm9898]

Ya it was another fed report saying they are still on holding pattern. Looks like they are going to wait for the Jobs report in a few weeks.
That being said, the Next real scare for the Solar Sector is the SOL earnings report. Rarely does a report ever get postponed unless its a bad sign of things to come.

 

[jeffro01]

Well I was in TSL today but I hit the wrong button on my stop loss and ended up selling my position, idiot me... Cost me like $80 between the market diff and fees so at least it wasn't a huge oops... Note to self... Naturally I can't buy in again without the risk of my account getting locked out...

Jeff

 

[Norse]

Ya it was another fed report saying they are still on holding pattern. Looks like they are going to wait for the Jobs report in a few weeks.
That being said, the Next real scare for the Solar Sector is the SOL earnings report. Rarely does a report ever get postponed unless its a bad sign of things to come.

I have loaded up with sep calls in SOL. I will sell them before ER if short interest is to low.

 

[tmont]

Ya it was another fed report saying they are still on holding pattern. Looks like they are going to wait for the Jobs report in a few weeks.
That being said, the Next real scare for the Solar Sector is the SOL earnings report. Rarely does a report ever get postponed unless its a bad sign of things to come.

I agree. Fortunately SOL doesn't report until the 30th so hopefully this won't be a reason for investors to sell off on solar for at least another week. LDK report on the 27th and JASO reports on the 29th. As far as I'm aware, no other solar companies are reporting before then. I'm banking on further run up from here.

 

[fjm9898]

Solar also just got a welcomed boost by the market action. All the stock i fallow (SOL, CSIQ, SPWR and now TSL) were all stuck at resistant point. TSL @9$ SOL at 4.25 as so on. this market jump helped pop them all through those prices.

 

[DaveT]

Hey guys, looks like SCTY is showing a lot of weakness on the charts. It's below the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages and could re-test the 32.66 low it reached in June. If the 32.66 level doesn't hold, that will not be good for the stock.

 

[Norse]

Out Of Ideas And In Debt, Spain Sets Sights On Taxing The Sun - Forbes Some places..

 

[CyberDutchie]

Hey guys, looks like SCTY is showing a lot of weakness on the charts. It's below the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages and could re-test the 32.66 low it reached in June. If the 32.66 level doesn't hold, that will not be good for the stock.

Yeah, SOL, CSIQ, SPWR all up today...SolarShitty down...

 

[mershaw2001]

I've been wondering if the decrease in SCTY has been due to the increase in the interest rates on US treasuries, resulting from the recent fed minutes. The way that I see it, SCTY is one option to park your money for 20 years if you're a very large investor such as Goldman Sachs. When interest rates were low, it was easier for SCTY to get a huge loan to use for setting up leases because they were offering several percent more than the market. Now, with interest rates up, it will be harder for SCTY to acquire large lines of credit and it will push the cost up to the end consumer. Do you think this is a valid concern?