Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[sleepyhead]

Roth Capital Starts JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (JASO) at Buy $15 PT:

http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Co...Holdings+Co.,+Ltd.+(JASO)+at+Buy/9258785.html

This is new coverage picked up by Roth today. There are virtually no analysts following JASO; maybe 1 or 2 that I haven't heard from in months.

That is a good thing you guys have sleepyhead to keep you updated :redface:

Now that cat is slowly coming out of the bag, lets hope for a big ER 3/17 and great guidance going forward.

Like I said, sooner or later Wall St. figures these things out and that is why I like to get in early and be patient. I was buying at $8 - $10, and now Wall St. can start their own bidding process at $11.

Anybody here with access to the Roth Capital report on JASO? Please pm me if you have it.

I would like to take a look at it to see what they are using for estimates. It is very possible that they are using lowball figures and will have to update numbers post Q4 ER and up their PT. It is good to know these things in advance.

On the other hand if I think that their numbers are too optimistic, then it might create a good selling opportunity. I doubt this is the case though, because I have a much higher PT for JASO (closer to $30 by the end of the year in a good economy and continuation of bull market).

 

[ckessel]

Anybody here with access to the Roth Capital report on JASO? Please pm me if you have it.

I'm guessing the report must have something favorable since JASO is up significantly and all it's brethren are down or flat today. It's been really rare when JASO deviates that far from the herd.

 

[sleepyhead]

I'm guessing the report must have something favorable since JASO is up significantly and all it's brethren are down or flat today. It's been really rare when JASO deviates that far from the herd.

Obviously its positive if you put a PT that is 42% above yesterday's closing price.

I wanted access to the report, so that I can see what modeling assumptions he used for his 2014 and 2015 estimates. I suspect that his numbers are very conservative, and that there could be room for future adjustments that will lead to higher PT's.

But I don't know that for sure, so I would love to see the report.

 

[pz1975]

Obviously its positive if you put a PT that is 42% above yesterday's closing price.

I wanted access to the report, so that I can see what modeling assumptions he used for his 2014 and 2015 estimates. I suspect that his numbers are very conservative, and that there could be room for future adjustments that will lead to higher PT's.

But I don't know that for sure, so I would love to see the report.

This isn't the report but it contains extracted details: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Roth+Starts+JA+Solar+%28JASO%29+at+Buy%3B+Undervalued+Name+has+Robust+Balance+Sheet,+Strong+Pipeline/9259609.html

 

[mershaw2001]

After playing the bounce in CSIQ (buy at 37.5, sell at 41.09) I went on a csiq buying spree today. Shares in the mid 36 range, then april 34 strike options when the stock hit 36.00, and then more shares at 35.80. It dropped to 35.3, but seems to be going up.

 

[c041v]

After playing the bounce in CSIQ (buy at 37.5, sell at 41.09) I went on a csiq buying spree today. Shares in the mid 36 range, then april 34 strike options when the stock hit 36.00, and then more shares at 35.80. It dropped to 35.3, but seems to be going up.

I was patiently waiting for this dip too. Added to CSIQ stock position. Let's see where things go in the next couple of days.

 

[aznt1217]

Everyone has been talking about PLUG. Are any of you playing this? It seems super risky to me, fuel cell tech isn't exactly fully sustainable and the CEO is too vague when he says we'll make money this year...

 

[772]

Kind of wish I had taken a small gamble and bought some when it was <$3 recently, but I'm not planning to take a position either way in PLUG now. Maybe some small $ amount into puts if you think it will go down sharply.

 

[pz1975]

Everyone has been talking about PLUG. Are any of you playing this? It seems super risky to me, fuel cell tech isn't exactly fully sustainable and the CEO is too vague when he says we'll make money this year...

I bought some Jan15 $7 LEAPS last week - up 117% already (should have bought shorter-term). It is small position and will probably sell half to run risk-free through ER. It looks like a blow-off top but I think it could run until just before or after ER, or maybe it is THE new technology and things are just starting. I bought in after doing a little research and seeing the huge momentum and positive sentiment. I also bought some BLDP calls for the same reason on Friday.

 

[mershaw2001]

What a crap day for solar. For all speculative biotech or tech for that matter. I am just hoping this doesn't portent a deeper decline in the next day or two.

 

[pz1975]

I bought some Jan15 $7 LEAPS last week - up 117% already (should have bought shorter-term). It is small position and will probably sell half to run risk-free through ER. It looks like a blow-off top but I think it could run until just before or after ER, or maybe it is THE new technology and things are just starting. I bought in after doing a little research and seeing the huge momentum and positive sentiment. I also bought some BLDP calls for the same reason on Friday.

Glad I half of my PLUG and BLDP calls at open today to run the rest of them risk free. Yikes, PLUG down 40% and BLDP down 23% - was a blow-off top after all.

 

[farzyness]

SCTY partnership with Best Buy is genius. GREAT move by Best Buy in order to stay relevant in the brick and mortar electronic space. Now when people go and buy their washer/dryer/fridge, they'll be able to buy solar panels and storage.

 

[palmer_md]

SCTY partnership with Best Buy is genius. GREAT move by Best Buy in order to stay relevant in the brick and mortar electronic space. Now when people go and buy their washer/dryer/fridge, they'll be able to buy solar panels and storage.

They are also inside every Home Depot around here.

 

[Gtoffo]

Guys, SCTY is a beast.

On other news: what do you all think about CSIQ? I've been buying a little but I'm trying to understand if we have some positive catalysts coming up that could initiate the comeback.

 

[Bgarret]

Guys, SCTY is a beast.

On other news: what do you all think about CSIQ? I've been buying a little but I'm trying to understand if we have some positive catalysts coming up that could initiate the comeback.

I think it is a case of when not if. A couple interesting things about their Q4, year end and 2014 forecast:

1. Pipeline - They identified the 2014 pipeline by source, size and potential timing. If you look at Q1 you have:

- 13.9 MW from William Rutley in Canada (supposed to be Q4) and 11.9 KW from Little Creek. Either or both may be delayed to Q2, but from previous sales (Demorestville, Taylor Kidd) - these have the potential for $60-100 million CD in revenue at 20-25% margin. If these sell, they will announce it at the end of Q1 or in early April.
- 12.7 MW from the US (Roxboro at 6.2 MW and CSI P1 at 6.5)
- 40 MW from W. China and Jiangsu Province that are already connected to the grid with a potential RMB 1.0 -1.2/kWh FIT (see recent note on Yingli and analyst upgrade for comparison).

My guestimate puts these at about 60-80 cents/share, with Q2 seeing a much larger ramp up to potentially a $2.0/share EPS for the quarter (and possible movement of payment from Q1 because of weather) and additional revenue from insurance on the factory fire. Q2 is the sweet spot, and Japan revenue (mostly in 2015, but some in 2014 is a wildcard) but at what point does the stock start ramping up.

2. New Analysts - you now have 5-6 analysts covering CSIQ, including J.P. Morgan and Goldman - up from 2 less than a year ago. This should help institutions (currently at 14.9% ownership) become more comfortable in owning the stock.

3. Estimates - those existing and new analysts have increased their current year average estimates from $2.32/share 60 days ago to $3.78/share for 2014 today...or over 50% increase in current year estimates, while the stock has dropped 20% since earnings. A forward P/E of 7.2???? Something has to give.

4. Shorts - I wouldn't be surprised if the short interest has gone up significantly after the Q1 miss.

I'm accumulating LEAPS and shares and will play a short-term option strategy for Q2....those are my thoughts.

:wink:

 

[AlMc]

Guys, SCTY is a beast.

On other news: what do you all think about CSIQ? I've been buying a little but I'm trying to understand if we have some positive catalysts coming up that could initiate the comeback.

I decided to cash out half my holdings in CSIQ, luckily at 37+ and turned around and bought 2015 AND 2016 LEAPS which are all 'red' right now (not so lucky)

****I was looking at short interest for JASO with the ER coming up. Short interest has DOUBLED from end of January to Feb 28th (last reported date) and now stands at 8 million shares.......

 

[FluxCap]

Ouchies on the Chinese solars today, eh? Double whammy of Chinese news and Ukraine instability seem to be pressing down hard. I'm considering adding to long positions, but wondering what might transpire short-term for CSIQ and others. Anyone make any moves today?

 

[InTheShadows]

Ouchies on the Chinese solars today, eh? Double whammy of Chinese news and Ukraine instability seem to be pressing down hard. I'm considering adding to long positions, but wondering what might transpire short-term for CSIQ and others. Anyone make any moves today?

I grabbed two march lottery tickets for jaso. $12 and $13 strikes for .15 and .10 respectively.

 

[FluxCap]

I grabbed two march lottery tickets for jaso. $12 and $13 strikes for .15 and .10 respectively.

May the force be with you on those! My $15 leaps would thank you.

 

[InTheShadows]

May the force be with you on those! My $15 leaps would thank you.

If the force is with me, they will end up being leaps