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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Loaded up on some more SCTY Apr 85 calls today. My gut tells me Tesla's announcement this week re Gigafactory will move this stock quite a bit!
If TSLA is the one offering the secondary and SCTY is a partner that will benefit financially w/o dilution, then this is probably a really good move
If I were a participant in Sleepy's, Norse's et al "Contrarian" forum I'd have posted this there, but as I try to be active on only one forum at a time, I'm not, so:
I now have three separate PV systems in place in two locations - AK and AZ. In AK, I have two separate strings, going through two completely separate charge controllers, feeding my waaaaay off grid battery bank and overall elec. system for our compound there. Separate, because I created them at different times; they're separate geographically and have incompatible panels and everything else.
Anyway, the oldest unit, my "test" facility, not only is constrained in size - because I mounted the panels atop a 65-foot high tower I erected and is on a tracking rack - but also, because it now is "ancient" (2008, I think), its panels are a now-minuscule 130W size. Once I get my boom truck back, in early June, I am thinking of replacing them. The most bang I can get for the buck, given that I am absolutely limited in # panels (just 4, but the actual number isn't relevant: it's that I cannot add on by increasing # of panels), is to emplace the largest nameplate cap of most efficient panels on the market, as long as pricing is just about correspondent.
Thus the question: are SunPower's panels the ones that fit the bill? While I would love to wait one more season to learn if their new "X" panels are available, that always has been and for the foreseeable future will be the dilemma of this technology, so I'll disregard that. But how do I get in touch with a vendor of SPWR products?
Lastly, in interest of (fairly) full disclosure, while I have in the past at least gently disagreed with SleepyHead over SPWR - I continue to believe that SCTY's long term prospects are more exciting, my Alt.Energy portfolio - which is a very sizable fraction of my entire investment portfolio, consists of the following. "One part" is approximately equivalent to what I consider for me to be a "full position"...obviously, the $ value for that it is not appropriate for me to divulge. The extraordinary growth of esp. SCTY and TSLA over the time I have held the positions are part of the reason they are outsize holdings; the other reason is that I invested more - at the outset - in those two names, both as $ values and as a % of my holdings, than I ever have in any other companies. Lastly: I do NOT participate in derivatives, and I do NOT invest on margin. Period.
1/2 part Hanwha
1/2 part JA Solar
1/2 part Jinko
1/2 part Yinlgi
2/3 parts Rene Solar
3/4 parts First Solar
1.5 parts GT Advanced
2 parts Clean Energy Fuels
2 parts Canadian Solar
2.5 parts SunPower
4.5 parts Solar City
11 parts Tesla
ALL of these, with the exception of Clean Energy (Boone Pickens's CNG/LNG truck stop filling station network) have, as you know, done extremely well. I never have sold any of these names (nor traded any others in this sector), other than SCTY and a small fraction of TSLA - both of which I later more than re-filled - in order to pay taxes and buy a P85.
I now have three separate PV systems in place in two locations - AK and AZ. In AK, I have two separate strings, going through two completely separate charge controllers, feeding my waaaaay off grid battery bank and overall elec. system for our compound there. Separate, because I created them at different times; they're separate geographically and have incompatible panels and everything else.
Anyway, the oldest unit, my "test" facility, not only is constrained in size - because I mounted the panels atop a 65-foot high tower I erected and is on a tracking rack - but also, because it now is "ancient" (2008, I think), its panels are a now-minuscule 130W size. Once I get my boom truck back, in early June, I am thinking of replacing them. The most bang I can get for the buck, given that I am absolutely limited in # panels (just 4, but the actual number isn't relevant: it's that I cannot add on by increasing # of panels), is to emplace the largest nameplate cap of most efficient panels on the market, as long as pricing is just about correspondent.
Thus the question: are SunPower's panels the ones that fit the bill? While I would love to wait one more season to learn if their new "X" panels are available, that always has been and for the foreseeable future will be the dilemma of this technology, so I'll disregard that. But how do I get in touch with a vendor of SPWR products?
Lastly, in interest of (fairly) full disclosure, while I have in the past at least gently disagreed with SleepyHead over SPWR - I continue to believe that SCTY's long term prospects are more exciting, my Alt.Energy portfolio - which is a very sizable fraction of my entire investment portfolio, consists of the following. "One part" is approximately equivalent to what I consider for me to be a "full position"...obviously, the $ value for that it is not appropriate for me to divulge. The extraordinary growth of esp. SCTY and TSLA over the time I have held the positions are part of the reason they are outsize holdings; the other reason is that I invested more - at the outset - in those two names, both as $ values and as a % of my holdings, than I ever have in any other companies. Lastly: I do NOT participate in derivatives, and I do NOT invest on margin. Period.
1/2 part Hanwha
1/2 part JA Solar
1/2 part Jinko
1/2 part Yinlgi
2/3 parts Rene Solar
3/4 parts First Solar
1.5 parts GT Advanced
2 parts Clean Energy Fuels
2 parts Canadian Solar
2.5 parts SunPower
4.5 parts Solar City
11 parts Tesla
ALL of these, with the exception of Clean Energy (Boone Pickens's CNG/LNG truck stop filling station network) have, as you know, done extremely well. I never have sold any of these names (nor traded any others in this sector), other than SCTY and a small fraction of TSLA - both of which I later more than re-filled - in order to pay taxes and buy a P85.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I did not really understand precisely what you described in the tower you erected, but if you are looking for the most efficient panels then SPWR does fit the bill. They already are selling X series panels that are 21.5% efficient. You get up to 345W per panel. Chinese competitors sell 240W-270W.
I do not know how to buy individual panels, but if you are doing a whole system then I can get you a discount on the whole SPWR installation. I am not sure if it is easy to just buy a few panels. Ask Theshadows, he should know.
As far as SCTY being a more exciting stock, I agree but there are a lot more risks with SCTY as well. I don't invest in SCTY, because it moves in tandem with TSLA and does not provide any diversification.
SCTY might outperform SPWR in the long run, but it has significantly more risk. Higher risk = higher reward. I would not want to be long SCTY in a recession. SPWR will tank as well, but nowhere near as much as SCTY.
I don't like SCTY, because there business model relies on ignorant customers. Buying a system is a lot better deal than leasing one. SCTY rips you off if you ask for a quote to buy instead of leasing. Go through a local installer and you will get a lot better quote and deal.
I am putting a solar system on my roof next week. I got a great deal on a SPWR system, but I could have gotten a similar price if I went through a local installer who uses Chinese panels. The case in point is that my system has a 5 year payback period due to rebates and federal tax credit (and this is in not very favorable Texas).
For those who don't know what a 5-year payback period is: it means that you will continue paying your electricity bill virtually the same amount for 5 years and then anything after that is free electricity. So I will be generating free electricity for another 20 years. Also, if I decide to sell my house after 10 years, the system will increase value of my house by $20k or so. Whereas a SCTY leased system becomes a liability.
The fact is that you are getting screwed when you go with a SCTY (or SPWR for that matter) lease, because they are the ones getting the whole benefit of the tax credits and other rebates. Fortunately for SCTY, there is a lot of ignorant people when it comes to solar and they continue signing up for those leases.
I don't invest in companies if I don't believe in their business models, and SCTY's business model would be shot if people knew the truth. I have heard people getting ridiculously high "buy" prices from SCTY, because they want to force your hand to sign a lease and that is not ethical IMO.
I really don't care if SCTY makes it big and I miss out, because the risk is just too high for my liking; especially at current valuations.
I don't know, the world is full of people who can't scrape together an extra 10k for a solar system. While it may be more financially sound to buy instead of lease, I am pretty sure I could show you that it makes even more sense to invest your solar panel install money (say 10k again) in a financial product like a decent bond fund or my beloved Lending Club (10%) and use the income to offset your coal-powered electricity bill. When I model it, a solar panel install is financially similar to a bond that yields 2-3%. So if you are more swayed by the environmental benefit but are short on cash the SCTY lease deal sounds great.
Isn't it the other way? In a recession, far fewer people have the up front capital or the willingness to deploy that capital in a solar system. However, everyone wants to save money. Even in a recession, electricity rates stay pretty much the same, so in areas with high electricity rates, then I would think SCTY should be more interesting in a recession. Plenty of people simply don't have $10-25k to front the cost of solar PV or are in a situation where they don't necessary believe that they may be in a house long enough to realize the benefits.
I think the biggest problem with SCTY is figuring out how all their financials actually translate into any sort of understanding to make valuation judgements.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Depends on what state as far as what kind of return to expect!
http://www.solarindustrymag.com/e107_images/newspost_images/13040_geostellar.gif
(also, LC is only giving me ~1% effective rate of return, argh)
While I generally agree that purchasing the panels if you can afford it provides the most bang for your buck, the reality is that most people out there don't have much cash laying around. Or they have it tied up in other assets/investments (ie., house, 401k, etc).
For the people who don't have cash to purchase a system, they'll need to find some way to finance a solar system if they want to go solar. Some cities/counties have attractive options where you can add the cost of your solar system to your property tax bill and pay if off over 10-20 years, and that's transferrable as well if you sell your house. The new owner just pays a higher property tax bill with an additional line item for solar.
If you don't have an attractive local financing alternative, then SolarCity will compete decently well with other financing/leasing options for solar. I called up SolarCity for a quote and they wouldn't give me a quote saying that my house is too small (under 2000 sqft) and I don't use enough electricity (my current energy bill is quite small). However, I have seen large houses with large energy needs get really attractive leasing/PPA deals from SolarCity. It's much better than a lot of the other financed options out there. And some of the other options are quite disorganized and inefficient. But SolarCity is super efficient and will usually get the job done with little hassle.
If you don't use a lot of energy or have a small house, then SolarCity's lease/PPA probably won't make a ton of sense. But that will change over time as they drive down costs. For larger houses with large energy needs and for people who can't or don't want to pay cash, it makes sense now.
Probably the biggest value-add to the customer for SolarCity is their financing/PPA options, then their ease-of-use no-hassle install process, and finally cost which they are working aggressively to lower.
sub
Active Member
After Rebates my 8kw system will make me a return of around 15-18% a year. I'm realizing that it's actually allowed me to cut my use of propane for heat in the winter by using electric space heaters and not heat all 3000sq/ft to make one room warm that I may be using. I do also agree that buying is much better than leasing, and I put off my installation for a year because I wanted to own my system. However, a significant percentage of the population doesn't have the discipline to actually save money for anything, so a lease is better than nothing. I have YGE panels with Enphase microinverters and my panels do put out mid 300 watts per, so i'm not sure I agree with Sleepy that all Chinese panels are sub 300w. I have a friend who owns a local Solar company so I put my trust in him on which products he put on my roof.
You have taken my quotes out of context and that is not the message I was trying to convey.
In a recession, financing will dry up and SCTY may not be able to do many leases at all. My recession comment had nothing to do with customers, but more to do about financing.
In order for SCTY to do their goal of 1 million homes, they need about $30 billion in financing +/- $10 billion. That is a lot of money. Once the financing dries up, there business model is shot and the stock could tank 90%.
Now, I am sure that they have some kind of plan in place to mitigate such risks. But the fact is that SPWR or other solar manufacturers only need a couple hundred million dollars per year at best to run their operations, while SCTY will need billions.
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