Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well if my PhD in particle physics and participation in the discovery of the Higgs particle (for which the ohysics Nobel was given this year) are not credentials enough (and a simple google will confirm them). Then how about you just take a random Poisson probability calculator on the interwebs and do the simple math. Most take two numbers: expected events, observed events and give you the probability of that occuring as well as that or less and that or more. Expecting one fire and observing three is a 6% event and >=3 is 8%. Expecting 5 events (as in 5 per 100M miles driven) and seeing three or less is 26.5% probability.
in statistics it's evidence at 3 sigma or ca 99% exclusion. If an event is less than 5% likely we call 95% exclusion limit. Neither case I highlighted gets even close to 3 sigma and are both excluded as significant at 95% confidence level.
in statistics it's evidence at 3 sigma or ca 99% exclusion. If an event is less than 5% likely we call 95% exclusion limit. Neither case I highlighted gets even close to 3 sigma and are both excluded as significant at 95% confidence level.