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Remember the last time Reuters published BS? Oh, that was an options expiry Friday too. What a coincidence.

Ain’t it funny how they only show up when there’s blood in the water? Makes you question their…authenticity.

No, just behind a compact car at a light. The light was clearly visible—but that’s a theory as to why it was turning the wheel.

This would be a good case for that C++ guardrail control code: if the car’s not moving, don’t allow any steering input.

2021 data from IIHS: "The death rate per 100 million miles traveled ranged from 0.71 in Massachusetts to 2.08 in South Carolina" So we know Tesla has well over 300 million miles of v12 driving, and there have been zero fatalities. (We'd know if there were). So FSD v12 supervised has saved...

Odd experience with 12.3.4 today: Stopped at a light. While waiting for the green, the wheel started gradually turning left. It continued to slowly turn all the way to the left--almost completely to the stops. When the light turned green it immediately straightened and it was fine, but I think...

If there were, I'm 100% sure you'd hear about them.

If 2 years from now TSLA has gone up significantly due to FSD, Energy, Model 2, etc...then apart from retiring filthy rich and hiring many wives for sport I'm going to fondly remember Gary Black's comment that he wished his fund had sold 100% of their TSLA instead of most of it. I love it when...

I worded that poorly. They had massive AI capex (a one-time expense) and, despite having a terrible quarter by Tesla standards with lots of headwinds, still made a ton of money ignoring the one-time capex.

This I think is one of the main reasons why TSLA went up after the financials went out. Terrible quarter, terrorist attack, shipping blockades, two new products ramping, poor sales, inventory buildup, and MASSIVE AI infrastructure capex and Tesla is STILL printing money. All while their big...

I’d put my money on Ford. I think FSD licensing will turn out just like the North American Charging Standard. Ford *kinda* has their head out of their ass enough to see the future, so they license FSD. Then the other automakers, realizing their cars can’t drive their elderly owners or busy...

I’ve been around EVs and relentlessly watching Tesla for 15 years now, so you may have missed this. EV growth didn’t slow as a sector because OEMs suddenly realized in the last year that EVs don’t work. Anyone who’s owned one for the last few years already knows that EVs out on the roads are...

Yet another reason why traditional media is garbage in, garbage out. They’re paid by the word, not by the fact.

I mentioned this in the FSD thread a few days ago after James Douma brought it up, but I cannot stress the importance of this enough: Elon and Ashok have seen, been driven by, and experienced the future FSD 12.4 and FSD 12.5, which we won’t see as plebs for months. If you’re wondering why Elon...

Do you ever get embarrassed by your own posts?

Canadian horses are stronger due to less consumption of soft drinks.

While conceptually you are correct that different data could be used to train different networks in the different modes, doing this with just two toggle settings means you have to train and test 4 separate networks. Then multiply by the regions that need their own networks and this quickly...

I’ve said this before but I continue to be ignored in general so I’ll continue to say it: A 0.0.x release from 12.3.4 to 12.3.5 is a maintenance release. It is unlikely to have fixes that you will notice. It will be the same neural network. Maybe, if you’re lucky, you’ll see some fix to...

I don't think it's so much that they want to assert more control, it's just that as there's less logic-based C++ control code and more neural network control it becomes harder and harder to provide parameters and options for different behavior--all of the decisions are happening in a black box...

LOL this is hilarious. Once the Mercedes driver completes their two page checklist to ensure conditions are met for autonomy, they can look down at a book for a minute until the car alerts them to pay attention again. That is indeed "a new echelon of autonomous driving". Meanwhile people all...

There is a theory that sometimes they do A/B testing with different parameters to see which work better, but as far as I can recall there’s never been confirmation of this.

Even though your balls are occupied, you can still do things with your hands. (ie all of this "consumer Model 2 is cancelled" stuff is absolute nonsense).

I’m set to assertive. Seems to have no effect on surface streets though.

This was near Williamsburg/Newport News. I’ve never seen it switch to auto max before there however.

Didn’t mind having auto max on the interstate—I just want to be able to limit the max speed manually, and it’s disconcerting when the only way to slow down is to disengage.

Anyone else see this? The other day I was on the interstate (I-64 in Virginia). FSD engaged (12.3.4). The car got confused and was actually on auto max speed, which usually doesn’t happen on the interstate. The car went to 84 mph (traffic usually goes about 75 here, speed limit 70) and my...

Ok, so back to value of FSD: Suppose Tesla insurance charges some per-mile premium when driving manually, and a significantly less per-mile premium while driving on FSD. Safety statistics could, in the not-too-distant future, support a situation where the insurance savings alone could pay for...

With regard to the value of FSD to consumers, you’re all right. Those who say they can’t justify $12k or $99/month because they can’t afford it, or it doesn’t bring enough value, or whatever—are right. And those who say they paid $12k or $199/month in a heartbeat because they love it are right...

Limited inputs? Go was explicitly chosen because it is a complicated game with FAR more possible plays than chess. From Scientific American: “Go's complexity is bigger, much bigger. With its breadth of 250 possible moves each turn (Go is played on a 19 by 19 board compared to the much smaller...

Just want to point out that Ashok and Elon have seen and are probably driving 12.4 if not something beyond that. (James Douma thinks so too). So Elon and Ashok have witnessed firsthand the rate of change from 12.3 to their current internal build. I don’t think the big focus on autonomy is a...

Yeah I was thinking if anyone needs to cut way MORE than 10% of their workforce, it would be Rivian and Lucid.

Completely disagree with your valuation at $40/share if autonomy fails. Nonsense. If autonomy fails, and assuming Optimus goes nowhere: 1. Tesla energy still exists. 2. Tesla still makes cars. 3. Tesla still has the best driver assistance package on earth and can sell it to any car company. 4...

Meanwhile, FSD drove 45 minutes to work and another 50 minutes back today. I only intervened to keep the speed up and to initiate a lane change a few times because I was impatient. And there was decently heavy traffic today--successful zipper merges, correct decisions to go, etc. Can't wait to...

Not sure if joking. You remember a few weeks ago when vehicles were gathering data at that intersection? I assume you understand that data has not gone through a cycle of training and is not incorporated in the neural network in 12.3, correct?

OK, I've sat through a day of drama on here. Jesus. So many people making assumptions about this or that without any facts. Typical. I'll summarize the facts we learned from the nonsense today: 1. Any executive that spends less than 50 years in a high profile executive position under a...

The size of two data banks being the same means nothing. As an example, two 1000x1000 matrices of 16-bit weight values can be completely different and still have the exact same data size.

Like many, as a shareholder I’m hoping the next significant version comes during the trial period so those trying it out can gauge the rate of improvement.

A single iteration of the network takes on the order of weeks to train, with additional weeks of testing at the very minimum and tons of new training footage. No way a newly-trained model comes out as a maintenance (third number) version. The 12.3.3 to 12.3.4 release has configuration changes...

For some reason I suddenly wish I had 12.3.4.

Bingo. That’s the only way it makes sense in my mind. Only a small portion of the population can afford paying several times a cable/internet bill for something they use a few hours a day at most.

I have a really hard time believing: 1) That they don’t already have a ton of that feedback, and 2) That they are not already aware of 100 significant issues known to need work.

I mentioned this a few days ago. 12.3.3 -> 12.3.4 is not a major release. It's not even a minor release. It's a maintenance release. So don't expect much in the way of anything as far as improvements. 99% of what people think is an improvement is really just confirmation bias.

Take some drives away from California or wherever you are. We are in no way on the march of 9s yet. Trust me I want to be. And we're a lot closer now than we were a few months ago. But we're not there yet.

The chances of unintended acceleration happening once are about 1 in 100 billion. Actually, probably a lot less than that. Twice to the same person? Utter nonsense.

Nobody needs FSD to provide training data to Tesla. Every Tesla is already hardware-capable and data-connected to Tesla. They can pull data from any car they want, whether the drivers have FSD or not. In fact, you do NOT want people using FSD when they are generating training data. You don't...

Could be “sister”. Is he from West Virginia? (Sorry West Virginia, I had to.)

Agree. I cannot fathom the planet in which v12 is only marginally better than v11.

You’ll thank me when you get older, son. 👴

Don’t expect noticeable or significant improvements (beyond your imagination) for 12.3.4.

Yes, that is what I mean by C++ guardrail code.