The story of Elon Musk and GM's race to build the first mass market electric car

[Breezy]

The Model 3 will give you more range for less money than the MS40.

GM and Nissan will have something on the market by then that will likely undercut the Model 3 on price and be an attractive option for some. There's room in the EV space for more than one OEM, which is good for consumers and everyone else. Some people seem to want Tesla to take over the world. I don't want to replace the current oligopoly with a giant monopoly.

 

[scaesare]

Given how many 75-mile range Leafs have sold, I'd expect a 200 mile range $35K-ish EV will sell quite well.

 

[ckessel]

Trouble with Providing a mass market car is that the mass market doesn't want a 200mile range. They want 300+ minimum.

The Model S 85kwh is basically a 200 mile range car at 70-75mph freeway speeds. Particularly if you're not in the warm flat lands. And people seem pretty happy with that range. Once in a while, I wish it the range were a bit better, but it's not often and it's only a small thought. The real world range of the Model S 60kwh would start to feel like a bit of a compromise for me.

I think Gen3 should have range equivalent to the 85kwh Model S to really alleviate range concerns. They're shooting for a 200 mile range though, which is more akin to the 60kwh, though I suppose Tesla will probably have a $45k version (vs $35k) probably has a bigger battery. And like with the Model S, I'll bet the bigger battery outsells the small one by a large margin.

 

[JST]

The Model S 85kwh is basically a 200 mile range car at 70-75mph freeway speeds. Particularly if you're not in the warm flat lands. And people seem pretty happy with that range. Once in a while, I wish it the range were a bit better, but it's not often and it's only a small thought. The real world range of the Model S 60kwh would start to feel like a bit of a compromise for me.

I think Gen3 should have range equivalent to the 85kwh Model S to really alleviate range concerns. They're shooting for a 200 mile range though, which is more akin to the 60kwh, though I suppose Tesla will probably have a $45k version (vs $35k) probably has a bigger battery. And like with the Model S, I'll bet the bigger battery outsells the small one by a large margin.

I suspect you are right on all fronts. There will undoubtedly be an even pricier P version, too.

The real question for me is what Model 3P (P3?) sales do to S85 sales.

 

[ckessel]

The real question for me is what Model 3P (P3?) sales do to S85 sales.

I definitely would have bought the 3P even it was slower than the P85. I really wanted a smaller car, but the S was the only option at the time.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Trouble with Providing a mass market car is that the mass market doesn't want a 200mile range. They want 300+ minimum.
Look at how many 85v60kwh tesla has sold, and they scrapped the 40kwh version.

Tesla sells many more 85kWh because
a) the base car's expensive: as the price comes down, buyers will be more price-sensitive
b) it goes farther: becomes less important as the Supercharger network and destination charging increase
c) it charges faster: becomes less important as the Supercharger network increases, since the smaller battery will need less range charging
d) it has a better warranty: as the cost comes down and Tesla improves reliability, the warranty should become less of an influence

Everyone wants more range, but I think you'll find that there'll be a consumer sweet spot somewhere around 200 miles, because the key points for range are that people (a) can do regular trips without OTR charging (b) can do infrequent trips with little inconvenience.

300 miles is a big target for ICE cars because there's a simple formula <gas station visits per week>=<range>/<miles per week> and they want to make sure that it's tolerable for the vast majority of buyers.

The equivalent formula is much more complicated for BEV, but the main effect of the paradigm shift of home charging is that the thought shifts to how often you'd have to stop during a long trip and for how long. 200 miles range allows for 1 1/2 to 2 hours of driving and a relatively fast fill because you wouldn't have to do a range charge.

 

[ecarfan]

I think Gen3 should have range equivalent to the 85kwh Model S to really alleviate range concerns. They're shooting for a 200 mile range though, which is more akin to the 60kwh, though I suppose Tesla will probably have a $45k version (vs $35k) probably has a bigger battery. And like with the Model S, I'll bet the bigger battery outsells the small one by a large margin.

I think it is reasonable to assume that the base Model 3 will be designed to achieve a 200 mile EPA range rating and that will be the smallest battery Tesla offers for the car. It may be about a 45 to 50kWh battery. Of course there will be an option for a larger battery that allows over 250 miles of range, maybe close to 300 miles.

The Model 3 with the larger battery will likely outsell the smaller battery just like the S85 outsells the S60 by a wide margin. But the lower range Model 3 will be the vehicle that will meet Elon's stated objective and I'm sure it will sell very well.

 

[Model 3]

There's room in the EV space for more than one OEM, which is good for consumers and everyone else. Some people seem to want Tesla to take over the world. I don't want to replace the current oligopoly with a giant monopoly.

Yes, I want other manufactures to produce long-range EV's. But to me it doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon... They all back off and produce only 1. short-range city-cars. 2. Hybrids and 3. fool-cells... The big "secret" master-plan behind Tesla is to make the other car-manufactures to wake up and do the right ting. But if they have a to long sleep, Tesla is bound to take over the world


And GM to take up the challenge? You know, the producer of the late EV1? .... "you don't believe it to you see it "

 

[Breezy]

Yes, I want other manufactures to produce long-range EV's. But to me it doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon... They all back off and produce only 1. short-range city-cars. 2. Hybrids and 3. fool-cells... The big "secret" master-plan behind Tesla is to make the other car-manufactures to wake up and do the right ting. But if they have a to long sleep, Tesla is bound to take over the world


And GM to take up the challenge? You know, the producer of the late EV1? .... "you don't believe it to you see it "

I drive a Volt now. It may seem to some to be a poor effort from GM. But I love mine. I bought gas for it some time ago, but I honestly can't remember when that was. I drive electric most of the time.

GM and Nissan are trying. They're taking a different tack than Tesla by offering what they affordably can at a moderate price today, rather than in 3 years. I'm glad they did that.

90% of the plug-in cars sold worldwide in the first six months of this year weren't Teslas. Don't consider PHEVs real electric cars? Well 75% of the battery electric cars sold weren't Teslas.

It seems some people here at TMC maybe saw Who Killed the Electric Car? but never watched the sequel. :smile:

 

[Tasdevil]

The real question for me is what Model 3P (P3?) sales do to S85 sales.

Actually the real question to your question is;
Does it matter?
If they buy tesla, tesla wins.

If they compromise on the model 3 to "try" and save model S sales, it will cost them.
They would understand that not everyone wants a large car. But some people bought the model S because there was no other option.

 

[Model 3]

I drive a Volt now. It may seem to some to be a poor effort from GM. But I love mine. I bought gas for it some time ago, but I honestly can't remember when that was. I drive electric most of the time.

When I first heard about the coming Volt I was exited. It sounded like something I could wish for. Then they released the specs... And I was deeply disappointed.

Don't consider PHEVs real electric cars?

Well... Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle is - surprise surprise! - a hybrid between a real plug-in electric car and something else. In the case of the Volt the "something else" part is a fossil car. So no, a hybrid is not a real electric car in my view. To be a real electric car you need the pure electric range to be realistic, not a bad joke. i3 rex is getting close, but are still not there. I could have contented myself with a PHEV with a realistic electric range of about 150-200km, but would probably rather get myself a pure electric vehicle with 300+km range and access to the supercharger network.

It seems some people here at TMC maybe saw Who Killed the Electric Car? but never watched the sequel. :smile:

Have seen them both...

 

[JST]

The more I think about it, the more I think that a GM 200 mile EV wouldn't move the needle that much. Why?

Superchargers.

200 miles is a fair amount of range, and I am sure that there are some folks who would buy a 200 mile EV who wouldn't buy a 100 mile EV. But without Superchargers, a 200 mile EV is still really just a longer range city car.*

My new barometer for judging whether a car company is serious about competing with Tesla this isn't whether they are building a 200 mile EV. It's whether they are building out a network of fast chargers that allow true intercity travel. Until they do that, they really are just going for base hits rather than home runs.




*before anyone jumps down my throat for this, I know many here have taken their cars very long distances without supercharging. For the average Joe, though, access to supercharging is a game changer in terms if ease of long range travel.

 

[Zythryn]

When I first heard about the coming Volt I was exited. It sounded like something I could wish for. Then they released the specs... And I was deeply disappointed.

I had one and we loved it.
For our driving patterns it worked very well. Of course, in our case the 60kWh Model S works better as our second car.
While the Volt isn't technically an EV, it does give the driver the electric drive experience. I know a number of owners who have moved on to either a Model S or Leaf after getting a taste of driving under electric power.

While I think the Model S is the far better car for our driving habits, the Volt fleet does have well over 500 million EV miles, maybe 600 by now? The Model S is still shy of that, at just over 400 Million miles, however, we are catching up fast

I personally look forward to GM's 200 mile BEV. The more variety in the marketplace the better.

 

[WarpedOne]

It's whether they are building out a network of fast chargers that allow true intercity travel.

This.
And even stronger sign of "seriousness" (or just intelligence) would be using existing Superchager network.
Investing hundreds of millions into duplicating already existing things is waste of money, brain and time.

SuperCharger network is already defacto standard for HighPower charging and it will only grow stronger.
Don't anyone dare to mention Chademos. They may be good in theory, in practice they suck in more than one way.

 

[scaesare]

While I have to say that I think supercharging is indeed a game changer, and ultimately enables the next level of travel freedom, that an affordable 200 mile EV still has a lot of appeal.

Isn't the Leaf the EV with the largest sales still thus far? That's an EV that has nor real practical long-distance driving capability (1 hour charge for every 90 minutes of travel provided you can find a Chademo station), yet fills a real need for local/commute driving.

Yet there are many days where 75 miles isn't enough, yet the need for "unlimited" long distance driving via supercharging isn't the norm. I suspect a 200 mile EV is about ideal.

I charge to 60% (~150 miles range) during the weekdays to accommodate my ~65 mile round trip commute plus any evening/incidental driving. I typically have 40-75 mile left over. I charge to 90% on weekends, and of that ~225 mile range I typically use far less than 200 in a day, but often more than 75...

 

[Jeff N]

REPORT: GM Working With Focus Groups On 200 Mile EV Rollout?

 

[Breezy]

Well... Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle is - surprise surprise! - a hybrid between a real plug-in electric car and something else. In the case of the Volt the "something else" part is a fossil car. So no, a hybrid is not a real electric car in my view. To be a real electric car you need the pure electric range to be realistic, not a bad joke. i3 rex is getting close, but are still not there. I could have contented myself with a PHEV with a realistic electric range of about 150-200km, but would probably rather get myself a pure electric vehicle with 300+km range and access to the supercharger network.

Yes, I'm well aware of the defintion of PHEV.

You've made a decision that suits you. I've made a decision that suits me. I don't consider the Volt's electric range to be a bad joke. It's sufficient for over 90% of my trips, and I live in a rural area where you have to drive to get anywhere.

 

[Room_A113]

REPORT: GM Working With Focus Groups On 200 Mile EV Rollout?

Now the link says this:

(content removed – 12:49 pm): . A member of the comment community here at InsideEVs was included as part of a focus group involving a future long range EV. That story was emailed to us to share (which we did), but now has been removed at his request as apparently there was some confidentiality issues. As we don’t want to get anyone into hot water, and at his request, we have removed his focus group walk through.

There are other places to find the info on the internet. There's no actual evidence that the Focus Group in the article was a GM vehicle, although GM is the most likely manufacturer.

I agree with others that unless there is a fast-charge network, these cars won't go mainstream. And I mean 100KW+ fast charging, and only the Superchargers fit that bill. Perhaps GM will modify their 200-mile BEV tech to work with Tesla's Supercharger network? Not sure if that would be possible with LG-Chem prismatic batteries...

 

[Jeff N]

I agree with others that unless there is a fast-charge network, these cars won't go mainstream. And I mean 100KW+ fast charging, and only the Superchargers fit that bill. Perhaps GM will modify their 200-mile BEV tech to work with Tesla's Supercharger network? Not sure if that would be possible with LG-Chem prismatic batteries...

There is nothing special about the power density characteristics of the cells being used in the Model S -- there are just a lot of them so absorbing a 1.0-1.5C rate means a 85 kWh pack being charged at 90-120 kW. The Nissan LEAF without any active cooling and having pouch cells which are somewhat similar in size and chemistry to today's LG Volt cells can charge at over 1.5C so it's 24 kWh pack can take in 36-48 kW at a CHAdeMO station.

A 200-mile GM BEV with a 50-60 kWh pack could likely fully utilize a SAE DC Level 2 fast charging station with its maximum rate of 90 kW. Those stations could also be used by Spark EVs and BMW i3s and other future SAE DC charge capable vehicles. Beyond that, the SAE DC design can be physically scaled up to 240 kW although nobody has a vehicle that can utilize that rate yet so it hasn't been officially standardized.

There aren't any obvious technical limitations around charging support for a GM 200 mile BEV. It's all about the business model.

 

[ggies07]

After re-watching Revenge of the Electric car, I want to know what Bob Lutz thinks about the Volt sales numbers and Tesla's success. Why has his company failed/having a hard time with the Volt and Tesla's more expensive car is gaining popularity day by day. I hope he's been sitting at home running circles through his head trying to figure this out. Why didn't GM just make an EV instead of the damn Volt? Let's see if they really think they can make this 200 range EV....... I. dare. them. hahahaha