The story of Elon Musk and GM's race to build the first mass market electric car

[Benz]

I would be willing to bet that by the time Model 3 is rolling off the line, virtually everyone would have heard of Tesla.

Even then a significant number of people still will not have heard anything about Tesla Motors.

What you are saying ("virtually everyone would have heard of Tesla") is going to happen sometime in the next decade.

Can you imagine that there are still some people who have never heard of Google or Apple?

 

[Krugerrand]

I would be willing to bet that by the time Model 3 is rolling off the line, virtually everyone would have heard of Tesla.

That's only three years away. Considering (anecdotally) the number of people that appear to have not yet heard of Tesla, I highly doubt it. By 2020, though....

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That's only three years away. Considering (anecdotally) the number of people that appear to have not yet heard of Tesla, I highly doubt it. By 2020, though....

Sometime between launch and full production at Fremont.

Tesla won't go the dealership route, so they will have, in particular, to grow their Service Center network to match demand, so they won't be able to expand sales especially quickly anyway, meaning they're not going to be marketing aggressively. Plus, they'll be selling globally, which will spread out the sales.

But, at launch there'd likely be a media feeding frenzy and if they're pushing 150k units per year, then along with accumulated Model S/X sales there'd be much higher visibility and awareness. Plus, additional sales by competitors during the coming years will increase PEV awareness, and that will bring Tesla's name with it.

 

[JRod0802]

Another thing to keep in mind: the only way GM could possibly sell 500,000 200-mile EVs of their own would be to build their own Gigafactory. Otherwise there won't be enough batteries in the world to allow them to outsell Tesla, no matter how many people have heard of them.

 

[Benz]

Another thing to keep in mind: the only way GM could possibly sell 500,000 200-mile EVs of their own would be to build their own Gigafactory. Otherwise there won't be enough batteries in the world to allow them to outsell Tesla, no matter how many people have heard of them.

Good point.

That's absolutely correct.

 

[Breezy]

Another thing to keep in mind: the only way GM could possibly sell 500,000 200-mile EVs of their own would be to build their own Gigafactory. Otherwise there won't be enough batteries in the world to allow them to outsell Tesla, no matter how many people have heard of them.

I think it's too soon to say that. There may be paths to mass production of EVs other than Tesla's brute-force approach.

 

[qwk]

I think it's too soon to say that. There may be paths to mass production of EVs other than Tesla's brute-force approach.

You can't build an EV without batteries, and long range EV's will need a huge supply. Building battery factories doesn't happen overnight. GM, or any other company for that matter isn't immune to this.

 

[ckessel]

I too have a hard time believing GM, or anyone for that matter, has a Gen 3 competitor in the works. The battery constraint is definitely a huge impediment and fully agree with the statements here that even if GM had a car, how could they supply the batteries required in quantity if they're not starting getting those factories built now? That tells me that even if the competitors could design a good Gen 3 competitor, they can't supply it by 2017/2018.

I'm not sure how they get around that supply limitation. Even with the clout of a BMW or GM, they can't just suddenly start asking for a huge quantity of batteries their suppliers don't have. And it's not in their nature to take a gamble and throw 5 billion at their supplier _today_ and say "build it and we'll buy them all". I think they might very well create a 200 mile EV, but with the intent to sell in tiny numbers as they "explore" the market, giving Tesla another 3+ years before any of it's competitors start funding to build their own gigafactories.

Sadly for the world, that means at least 2020 before EVs supply becomes significant.

 

[Jeff N]

You can't build an EV without batteries, and long range EV's will need a huge supply. Building battery factories doesn't happen overnight. GM, or any other company for that matter isn't immune to this.

True. LG Chem, who says they are working on batteries for a 200 mile range BEV, has an existing underutilized battery factory in Michigan which is now making the cells for the Volt, Spark EV, and Ford Focus EV. They have pre-planned that factory site for future expansion. I seriously doubt it could alone supply the cells for 500,000 cars but it might well be able to supply the first year or two worth of cars as the volume is spun up.

 

[ElSupreme]

True. LG Chem, who says they are working on batteries for a 200 mile range BEV, has an existing underutilized battery factory in Michigan which is now making the cells for the Volt, Spark EV, and Ford Focus EV. They have pre-planned that factory site for future expansion. I seriously doubt it could alone supply the cells for 500,000 cars but it might well be able to supply the first year or two worth of cars as the volume is spun up.

I would imagine that the pouch cells that these manufacturers are using are much easier to setup production for. The supply chain, and logistics don't get any easier. But they are building 10s of cells per vehicle while Tesla is going to be building thousands. This is two orders of magnitude different and is probably significant.

 

[scaesare]

I would imagine that the pouch cells that these manufacturers are using are much easier to setup production for. The supply chain, and logistics don't get any easier. But they are building 10s of cells per vehicle while Tesla is going to be building thousands. This is two orders of magnitude different and is probably significant.

Actually it's hundreds.

The Volt has 288 cells to enable it's 40 mile range. Extrapolating that out to 200 miles would be something probably somewhat less than 1,440 today, as you'd eliminate the ICE weight.

But still even if it's only 1000 cells for a 200 mile range Volt , as compared to the ~5K cells in a 60kWh model S, it's not even an order of magnitude difference... more like 5X...and that's ignoring a smaller/lighter Gen 3.

 

[dsm363]

Actually it's hundreds.

The Volt has 288 cells to enable it's 40 mile range. Extrapolating that out to 200 miles would be something probably somewhat less than 1,440 today, as you'd eliminate the ICE weight.

But still even if it's only 1000 cells for a 200 mile range Volt , as compared to the ~5K cells in a 60kWh model S, it's not even an order of magnitude difference... more like 5X...and that's ignoring a smaller/lighter Gen 3.

Aren't the cells in the Volt much larger?

 

[scaesare]

Yes... physically flatter but larger W x H

It also occurred to me after posting that it's very likely that that the gigafactory could be making the slightly larger cells cells Tesla has suggested would be closer to the ideal.

I've heard 22770 as a form factor, which is almost double the volume of an 18650. With improved chemistry we might be looking at a Gen 3 with only 2000 cells...

 

[ElSupreme]

Actually it's hundreds.

The Volt has 288 cells to enable it's 40 mile range. Extrapolating that out to 200 miles would be something probably somewhat less than 1,440 today, as you'd eliminate the ICE weight.

But still even if it's only 1000 cells for a 200 mile range Volt , as compared to the ~5K cells in a 60kWh model S, it's not even an order of magnitude difference... more like 5X...and that's ignoring a smaller/lighter Gen 3.

I was thinking of the LEAF and modules, for 48 total parts units. Looks like the LEAF is going to roll ~400-500 cells to make a ~200 mile car. But versus the ~5,000 in a 60kWh Model S it is an order of magnitude different. But not as drastic as I thought.

48 modules and each module contains four cells, a total of 192 cells

Nissan Leaf - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Model 3]

You can't build an EV without batteries, and long range EV's will need a huge supply. Building battery factories doesn't happen overnight. GM, or any other company for that matter isn't immune to this.

Correct. But on the other hand, I bet GM has one or more idle factories at hand. That will save them some time to just retool an existing factory to produce batteries then to build one from scratch...

 

[scaesare]

I was thinking of the LEAF and modules, for 48 total parts units. Looks like the LEAF is going to roll ~400-500 cells to make a ~200 mile car. But versus the ~5,000 in a 60kWh Model S it is an order of magnitude different. But not as drastic as I thought.


Nissan Leaf - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yeah, definitely a difference... altho as I mention above it will be interesting to see what format is eventually adopted in the gigafactory. The difference could still be well less than 10X.

 

[qwk]

Correct. But on the other hand, I bet GM has one or more idle factories at hand. That will save them some time to just retool an existing factory to produce batteries then to build one from scratch...

GM, and the other manufacturers subcontract nearly all of the vehicle part manufacturing. Batteries are no different.

 

[Tasdevil]

Trouble with Providing a mass market car is that the mass market doesn't want a 200mile range. They want 300+ minimum.
Look at how many 85v60kwh tesla has sold, and they scrapped the 40kwh version.

 

[Benz]

Trouble with Providing a mass market car is that the mass market doesn't want a 200mile range. They want 300+ minimum.
Look at how many 85v60kwh tesla has sold, and they scrapped the 40kwh version.

The mass market will have to wait a bit longer (2025?), or will have to pay more for a 300+ mile EV.

When the Tesla Model 3 will be in mass production (2018), the Tesla Supercharger network will be expanded to about 1,000 Supercharger stations worldwide. And a 200-mile EV with some options for about $40k will be sufficient for most of the people.

 

[ecarfan]

Agreed. By the time the Model 3 is being sold, Superchargers will be ubiquitous in North America, Western Europe, China, and some other countries. In addition, workplace charging availability will be growing and vacation destination charging will be easier to find, including HPWCs. 200 miles of range will be enough to alleviate range anxiety for many people, and they will be the target market. Of course there will still be many people who will not consider an EV just because it is electric and they resist change. But their numbers will decline over time. Tesla won't be able to build enough Model 3 cars fast enough to satisfy demand for years to come.