Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[chickensevil]

Looks like you got your wish, CE... :smile:

Sorta, sadly it didn't go quite high enough for me to make it worth salvaging, and it will just go worthless, but I am fine with that, I have had an overall excellent past couple weeks of trading.

I am taking a step back I think and I have offloaded all my option "play" money into 1/3 shares, 1/3 a Dec 14 @ 260 strike, and 1/3 into a Jan 15 @ 280 strike and will just sorta sit back from here. Unless the stock goes south (or I suspect it of going south) of 220 again, I will likely just hold here with what I have and see where the next couple months take us, and hopefully have a bit less stressful of a trading cycle.

 

[blakegallagher]

zzzzzzz the investment boards are very quiet ...... generally this is a great sign. I hope it is this time.

 

[BlueTan85]

I find it interesting Tesla is stalling on announcing the date of earnings release for Q3. I'd be shocked if they don't announce some November date this week.

 

[emupilot]

I find it interesting Tesla is stalling on announcing the date of earnings release for Q3. I'd be shocked if they don't announce some November date this week.

They announced the date of the Q2 report (in late July) on July 17th. A few weeks ago I got some October 31 puts as protection and partly in the hope of a bump if the earnings report came out at a comparable date as for Q2. I ended up selling the puts when Tesla was around the 200 day moving average, and it looks like was a good decision since it does look like the report will be in November.

 

[uselesslogin]

I got a survey from Toyota today. I told them I am very satisfied and impressed with the reliability of their vehicle. Also I wrote that I would definitely not be buying another Toyota unless it is electric with at least 200 miles range with nationwide fast charging. Still, I'm glad they make such a reliable vehicle which will likely last me long enough to get a Model 3.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I find it interesting Tesla is stalling on announcing the date of earnings release for Q3. I'd be shocked if they don't announce some November date this week.

Huh? Stalling? They usually officially announce with two weeks warning

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Sorta, sadly it didn't go quite high enough for me to make it worth salvaging, and it will just go worthless, but I am fine with that, I have had an overall excellent past couple weeks of trading.

I am taking a step back I think and I have offloaded all my option "play" money into 1/3 shares, 1/3 a Dec 14 @ 260 strike, and 1/3 into a Jan 15 @ 280 strike and will just sorta sit back from here. Unless the stock goes south (or I suspect it of going south) of 220 again, I will likely just hold here with what I have and see where the next couple months take us, and hopefully have a bit less stressful of a trading cycle.

Surprised by the dates of your call expiration dates. Dec 260 and jan 280s. No report in between to move the stock. Model X will not ship inbetween those dates. Why not 280 after the 4 th qtr report?

 

[Cattledog]

zzzzzzz the investment boards are very quiet ...... generally this is a great sign. I hope it is this time.

This.

 

[ckessel]

I'd love to put money into TSLA, but with solar depressed as well I can't see any compelling reason to think TSLA is going to fare better in the near term than any of my other holdings. So, sadly, staying put.

Ideally, a solar will pop before TSLA moves and I can transfer over.

 

[Krugerrand]

I find it interesting Tesla is stalling on announcing the date of earnings release for Q3. I'd be shocked if they don't announce some November date this week.

Not stalling. Date is out. Nov 5th.

 

[chickensevil]

Surprised by the dates of your call expiration dates. Dec 260 and jan 280s. No report in between to move the stock. Model X will not ship inbetween those dates. Why not 280 after the 4 th qtr report?

It is based more on the speculation of a rise from the Model X reveal and possibly a Model 3 reveal and the speculation that Q3 results will either trade us flat to up. If the price rises substantially before Nov 5 (or whenever the ER is) I will likely look to bail on these since we will have a higher risk of dropping back down on a flat to negative Q3. But assuming we stay sub 240 before the ER, I feel pretty good about holding.

I realistically think that the price will be between 260-280 toward the middle to end of December. The January call just gives me a little more time in case it is almost there but not quite. And the Detroit Auto Show is scheduled to do Press day January 12-13 and the Industry Preview 14-15th. So if the Model X only finally gets a reveal at the show, I have the perfect option expiration. And if we are REALLY lucky someone might let out how good Q4 is like we had last year

My speculation is that we build back up to the 280/290 level ready for a breakout to new highs thanks to amazing Q4 results.

 

[30seconds]

based on history I would expect the Model X to get a reveal during a Tesla event prior to any auto show. That way Elon could explain all the features / design and not have to compete for attention with the rest of the show. Seems to work pretty well in terms of press pickup worldwide

 

[AlMc]

based on history I would expect the Model X to get a reveal during a Tesla event prior to any auto show. That way Elon could explain all the features / design and not have to compete for attention with the rest of the show. Seems to work pretty well in terms of press pickup worldwide

Agreed. TM will get maximum exposure if he does the 'TM faithful' reveal prior to the auto show then has it displayed there as well. I would really like to see a simulcast west/east coast reveal mid December as the deliveries of the P85Ds is well underway. Probably won't happen that way....so I will take a reveal in the first week of Jan 2015, just prior to auto show!!

 

[Robert.Boston]

Not stalling. Date is out. Nov 5th.

Yep, that just came out today.
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 10/21/14 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces that it will post its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2014, after market close on Wednesday, November 5, 2014. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q3 2014 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Time(5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

What: Tesla Motors, Inc. Q3 2014 Financial Results Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter: Tesla - Investors Overview
Webcast: Tesla - Investors Overview (live and replay)

 

[austinEV]

I now think there is so much doom and gloom about Q3 results that it is largely built in now.

 

[Johan]

I now think there is so much doom and gloom about Q3 results that it is largely built in now.

Let's not overestimate the market's ability to understand information as it is made available and let's not underestimate the market's tendency towards extreme herd mentality. I.e. after the report, where there will of course be a bit of good stuff and bit of bad stuff, some large funds will decide if they want the stock up or down and act accordingly in the after-market, pre-market and first hour of trading. And any which way they choose to push the stock the move will be amplified many times over by the rest of the herd acting either on technical data alone, just "going with the flow" or enterprating the report in light of the price action to come up with conclusions that fit the "reaction of the market". A very small percentage of the market thinks for themselves, we should always try be in that small percentage.

 

[Auzie]

Let's not overestimate the market's ability to understand information as it is made available and let's not underestimate the market's tendency towards extreme herd mentality. I.e. after the report, where there will of course be a bit of good stuff and bit of bad stuff, some large funds will decide if they want the stock up or down and act accordingly in the after-market, pre-market and first hour of trading. And any which way they choose to push the stock the move will be amplified many times over by the rest of the herd acting either on technical data alone, just "going with the flow" or enterprating the report in light of the price action to come up with conclusions that fit the "reaction of the market". A very small percentage of the market thinks for themselves, we should always try be in that small percentage.

Independent thinking has to include anticipation of "herd move" one way or the other. At least for short term trading.

 

[chickensevil]

based on history I would expect the Model X to get a reveal during a Tesla event prior to any auto show. That way Elon could explain all the features / design and not have to compete for attention with the rest of the show. Seems to work pretty well in terms of press pickup worldwide

Agreed. TM will get maximum exposure if he does the 'TM faithful' reveal prior to the auto show then has it displayed there as well. I would really like to see a simulcast west/east coast reveal mid December as the deliveries of the P85Ds is well underway. Probably won't happen that way....so I will take a reveal in the first week of Jan 2015, just prior to auto show!!

Please don't get me wrong guys, I fully expect the reveal BEFORE the auto show, it is just a matter of the expiration timing of the January options gives me time to let this baby ride all the way to the end before I really have to do something with it. So I have a lot of opportunity for the stock to shoot up further on some positive news. Since it was asked why the Dec and Jan options that I chose. I feel like I have given both expiration prices more than enough time value to hit those prices and will most likely sell them off either before or after the ER... I just have the option to continue to let it ride if I feel it is worth it.

Most likely when we get right up before the ER, I will buy what little cash I have left as a hedge to balance out the ER if we get a sell off.

Historically on a positive earnings we have had a sell off the day of the Release (before the stuff is posted) so Nov 5 will likely be a red day, and then gap up the following day.

If TSLA doesn't follow that same pattern I will be more inclined for some worry about where the price is going to go.

 

[Jerpo]

I am not sure if I was hallucinating but back a couple of years ago, there was some discussion of Tesla in NASCAR, and IIRC Tesla got a grant or something to put towards the robotic battery swapping station. I thought they were supposed to be in NASCAR in 2015. Am I going crazy? Does anyone know anything about this?

 

[palmer_md]

I am not sure if I was hallucinating but back a couple of years ago, there was some discussion of Tesla in NASCAR, and IIRC Tesla got a grant or something to put towards the robotic battery swapping station. I thought they were supposed to be in NASCAR in 2015. Am I going crazy? Does anyone know anything about this?

yep...that was last APRIL 1st. Tesla To Race in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series | Edmunds.com

 

[DaveT]

Man, if I had 4% of Tesla I wouldn't be selling for a very, very long time. Just sayin'.