Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[Chickenlittle]

That seems to have affected TSLA in after hours trading, despite the fact that the two companies' products and prices are totally unrelated.

However Netflix was close to ATH and tsla no where near it. The two stocks do not go in sync. However will scare people

 

[v12 to 12v]

Thanks Curt. pz1975: That is my problem as well. Curt may well be correct. The action on Netflix should give us all a little cause for concern as we head to TM Q3ER. While it is not time to panic it is time to be cautious, IMO. Netflix met guidance for EPS and Gross income, it did not get as many new customers as the market would have liked to see....so 25% drop AH??

Netflix took the hit because there wasn't the expected growth in subscribers. Netflix lost sales momentum because it's current markets are saturated. I saw that and, for that reason, I wasn't in Netflix. Now Netflix has a new competitor out there.

Tesla does not have the issues that Netflix has. There isn't a Tesla in every garage yet. (Hat tip to Bill Gates.) Also, Tesla has rapidly been expanding into new markets. Nothing even close for competition either.

I think the shorts are scared and trying to spook people out of TSLA by blaming "momo", even though there were other factors at work for Netflix. There was a huge number of short positions underwater at the end of the day.

 

[Curt Renz]

Netflix took the hit because there wasn't the expected growth in subscribers. Netflix lost sales momentum because it's current markets are saturated. I saw that and, for that reason, I wasn't in Netflix. Now Netflix has a new competitor out there.

Tesla does not have the issues that Netflix has. There isn't a Tesla in every garage yet. (Hat tip to Bill Gates.) Also, Tesla has rapidly been expanding into new markets. Nothing even close for competition either.

I think the shorts are scared and trying to spook people out of TSLA by blaming "momo", even though there were other factors at work for Netflix. There was a huge number of short positions underwater at the end of the day.

Well stated. Those shorts who want to scare people into selling TSLA at the regular market opening tomorrow, can do so relatively cheaply by selling into the thin after-hours or pre-market trading periods. In the video below Jim Cramer explains how it is done.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Well stated. Those shorts who want to scare people into selling TSLA at the regular market opening tomorrow, can do so relatively cheaply by selling into the thin after-hours or pre-market trading periods. In the video below Jim Cramer explains how it is done.

Great video, Curt. That is exactly what I was thinking. The hedge funds have taken an enormous hit and I expect they will aggressively try to make it up elsewhere by scaring people.

 

[SteveG3]

Well stated. Those shorts who want to scare people into selling TSLA at the regular market opening tomorrow, can do so relatively cheaply by selling into the thin after-hours or pre-market trading periods. In the video below Jim Cramer explains how it is done.

Same Jim Cramer who for over a year has been trying to tie Tesla together with Netflix, Twitter, and Amazon as "momentum"/"bubble" stocks. In regard to Tesla he repeatedly claimed "you can't value the darn thing" and tried to equate a positive outlook on Tesla as "cult" and "fanboy" sentiment (both of which I think are as disingenuous as the strategies he described in that video). Cramer's by no means alone in this year plus ad campaign to try to paint Tesla as overvalued to a rational observer by substituting a reasoned case with repetitive name calling.

If a selloff continues, on the way down, the year plus of artificially linking Tesla to Twitter, etc, may well have some effect on TSLA. However, if this happens, when a selloff slows, I am confident Tesla will come to be looked at far more on its own merits and rebound further faster.

 

[InTheShadows]

I know it's not tesla, but I might look at buying some weekly otm calls and puts of Netflix tomorrow am. Anyone else thinking the same thing?

 

[AlMc]

I know it's not tesla, but I might look at buying some weekly otm calls and puts of Netflix tomorrow am. Anyone else thinking the same thing?

Trying out your new strategy?:wink:

 

[justthateasy]

I don't know where else to post this but a friend just sent me a text about NFLX and the best reason she came up with on why it's down 25% despite reporting inline is "their content sux and they better and more content".

I love simplicity. :wink:

 

[InTheShadows]

Trying out your new strategy?:wink:

Yes, I will be testing the long strangle on a highly volatile high dollar stock about 3 or 4 strikes otm with options that expire this week. I have 4 day trades left this week in this account.

In this case I'm thinking the premium will be pretty high but I also think the volatility will be massive and I also think the volatility will offset the premium.

My goal is to make a little bit of money and learn a lot. My hope is I make a lot and learn a lot. I will be using less than 1% of my portfolio value in this account for this test.

Disclaimer: this is a new theory I developed in the past two weeks. This is my first test of it. If you have done this before and have words of warning, I am all ears.

 

[AlMc]

I don't know where else to post this but a friend just sent me a text about NFLX and the best reason she came up with on why it's down 25% despite reporting inline is "their content sux and they better and more content".

I love simplicity. :wink:

A good answer. More technically, they had fewer new customers and TimeWarner is going to do their own live streaming service that was acknowledged as 'competition' in the CC.

 

[InTheShadows]

I don't know where else to post this but a friend just sent me a text about NFLX and the best reason she came up with on why it's down 25% despite reporting inline is "their content sux and they better and more content".

I love simplicity. :wink:

I would have to agree. My wife and I were just looking for some new content about two weeks ago and all we found were some new food documentaries and maybe one or two new movies we didn't see on there before that had our interest.

We also have Amazon prime and Netflix is way better than Amazon prime and we tested Hulu plus about a year ago and canceled it. If it wasn't for our kids we probably wouldn't have Netflix.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Robert, I know you have a lot to do but given your experience as a former Fed economist, I'm particularly curious about your specific thoughts on current macroeconomic forces as they relate to TSLA trading. Specifically, do you have thoughts on the price of oil having outsized effect on bond and equity markets, as well as Fed's ability to move rates in the environment we find ourselves in with no appetite for fiscal stimulus? Are you concerned about deflation and/or Fed's inability to move the needle in a liquidity trap scenario? Are you concerned about equity/asset valuations outside TSLA?

Feel free to answer over in my macro thread if you wish, or here.

Truth to tell, my macro days are 30 years ago, and I don't pretend to have special insights there. FWIW, I read the oil numbers as a symptom, not a cause, so "low oil prices" = "weak global demand". The EU is looking pretty sick, due IMO to excessive concern about debt and insufficient concern about short-term stimulus.

(And, yes, I'm a Keynesian; hard to avoid when you learned macro from Jim Tobin and TA'd for Bill Nordhaus.)

 

[FluxCap]

Truth to tell, my macro days are 30 years ago, and I don't pretend to have special insights there. FWIW, I read the oil numbers as a symptom, not a cause, so "low oil prices" = "weak global demand". The EU is looking pretty sick, due IMO to excessive concern about debt and insufficient concern about short-term stimulus.

(And, yes, I'm a Keynesian; hard to avoid when you learned macro from Jim Tobin and TA'd for Bill Nordhaus.)

Those are some chops, sir! Thanks for chiming in. And I think it's precisely at times like these when we need veterans like you to school the youngsters on how to actually dig out of a Depression in an old-fashioned liquidity trap.

I just wish more of those I have spoken with in US economic leadership would listen to the likes of you, your mentors, and my favorite Keynesian, but alas. They haven't yet.

 

[c041v]

Those are some chops, sir! Thanks for chiming in. And I think it's precisely at times like these when we need veterans like you to school the youngsters on how to actually dig out of a Depression in an old-fashioned liquidity trap.

My pen and notepad are ready. I am a sponge. Post away!

 

[EldestOyster]

Imagine having overslept and being late for work: throw on some clothes, open the app and summon the car in "insane" mode - look out the window and watch it driving out the garage and up to your door at full throttle

And parking itself, thusly:

The Blues Brothers - How to park like Elwood - YouTube

 

[justdoit]

Wow, someone bought 2000 contracts of Jan 2016 $230 calls for $46.

 

[Johan]

Wow, someone bought 2000 contracts of Jan 2016 $230 calls for $46.

... And someone sold 2000 Jan16 230s for a total of $9,2 million

I like the enthusiasm right now!

 

[pGo]

... And someone sold 2000 Jan16 230s for a total of $92k

I like the enthusiasm right now!

You meant x100? No?

 

[Johan]

You meant x100? No?

Yes of course. Post edited. $9,2 million.

 

[FredTMC]

Please merge if this is redundant... Can someone please offer an explanation as to why AJ @ MS felt the compelling need to issue that "conjecture" research note today? I'm trying to come up with what possible benefit that serves him and MS today? I expect this from the bear FUD crowd.