Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[chickensevil]

I don't know but the protective puts I bought this morning might get sold soon. They are up 150%. If I do I'll buy the same amount a few strikes lower. That will pay for the wild card through the roof calls I bought for tonight's event if it's out of the park awesome.

That's what I already did, I timed it decently around the last bottom at around 1PM, and then re-bought some puts back again at a lower strike at around 1:45 PM close to the top of that last hump. For once I actually timed something decently... So wherever we move from here, I feel pretty good again, and sorta just want this day to be over haha.

 

[InTheShadows]

That's what I already did, I timed it decently around the last bottom at around 1PM, and then re-bought some puts back again at a lower strike at around 1:45 PM close to the top of that last hump. For once I actually timed something decently... So wherever we move from here, I feel pretty good again, and sorta just want this day to be over haha.

I sold them for 238% gain. Bought the same amount 2 strikes lower, and used the rest (-50% original investment) to buy some 270 weekly calls.

I hope the market likes Elon's D event. I hope he pulls a black swan out of his hat. (I'm listening to the book so now I know that black swans go both ways.)

 

[austinEV]

I sold them for 238% gain. Bought the same amount 2 strikes lower, and used the rest (-50% original investment) to buy some 270 weekly calls.

I hope the market likes Elon's D event. I hope he pulls a black swan out of his hat.  (I'm listening to the book so now I know that black swans go both ways.)

Isn't it black swan/white swan?

 

[InTheShadows]

Isn't it black swan/white swan?

So far the idea is that white swans are common. But it's rare to see a black swan. And those are the events that can make tons of money for people that are positioned correctly. It's a rarity to see one and catch one.

I'm taking it so far that it's outlier events.

Subtitled: The impact of the highly improbable.

UPDATED: some of the black swan events listed so far in the book.

1987
Tech boom in late 90's
Google
9/11

 

[FluxCap]

Well, long strangle in place. Hopefully I will make something unless we stay very flat at this price, which I think is unlikely. We shall see!

 

[dha]

I intended to go into this evening's event with a strangle in place. However, I legged in with my puts first, around 12:30 EST and managed to time the huge dip around 1:00 almost perfectly. So, I decided to sell the put leg immediately for around 300% gain, buy my $265 calls as a "free" lotto ticket and sleep well knowing that I've already come out ahead on this trade no matter what happens tonight / tomorrow.

Here's hoping for some great news and a pop!

 

[justdoit]

Does this seem more like a bug rather than a feature to anyone else?

From USA today article
•The car reads speed-limit signs and adjusts the car to the speed on the sign.

 

[austinEV]

I figure you can configure it to say 10% over or something. There are places where driving the speed limit will get you rear ended.

 

[brianman]

Does this seem more like a bug rather than a feature to anyone else?

From USA today article
•The car reads speed-limit signs and adjusts the car to the speed on the sign.

"Tesla owner gets rear-ended multiple times in the same day on Houston freeways for going below the speed limit + 10."

 

[palmer_md]

"Tesla owner gets rear-ended multiple times in the same day on Houston freeways for going below the speed limit + 10."

I've seen a few signs where somebody used spray paint to turn a sign from 55 to 88, or 155. I hope the car is smart enough to know that there are no speed limits that high.

 

[brianman]

155

Hehe.

I want to see what the firmware says when it detects higher than 155.

"I'm sorry, Dave, ..."

 

[chickensevil]

Really struggling to decide if I should just sell off my options on open or hold out for a couple hours... they expire today, so I probably shouldn't mess around too much huh?

 

[Johan]

Really struggling to decide if I should just sell off my options on open or hold out for a couple hours... they expire today, so I probably shouldn't mess around too much huh?

Puts or calls? Or both???

 

[chickensevil]

Puts or calls? Or both???

Oh was just talking about the Puts, I decided to bail on one of the trades which was a 250 Put, and still holding onto some 240 Puts. Kinda wish I would have just sold them both on the market opening, but it's ok.

The calls I fully expect to end up worthless at this point, but the puts I already sold have more than paid for everything else to possibly just go worthless.

I think right now, I am just going to set a limit order on the 240s where if the price dips down to about 239/238 range it should trigger the sale and if it doesn't go there, then oh well.

I am now contemplating what to do for Nov/Dec timeframe... but happy to just sit on cash for the moment.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Ok, bought some medium term calls that are slightly itm at SP $244.
I duno, this looks like mm wanted to push this down, imo no real reson.
Once implications of yesterdays event (improved electric powertrain, autopilot already in production) for Model X and Gen 3 sink in, this will probably move SP up.

- - - Updated - - -

The German media echo about the new features is not positive and in this special case here devastating and unfortunately not quite correct:
https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.n-tv.de%2Fauto%2FNeuer-Tesla-D-powert-auf-alle-Raeder-article13758001.html&edit-text=

By the way, do you see the same as I can see on the above web page?!
In second menu bar line the are three items (what the hell, BMW?! Is this advertising?!):

• Practice test
• Used
• BMW Connected Drive (w)

 

[hockeythug]

Figured this was going to happen after seeing polls this week with over 40% of people saying it was going to be a new car/ model x reveal.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Figured this was going to happen after seeing polls this week with over 40% of people saying it was going to be a new car/ model x reveal.

I thought there would be an X, but not a 3. Even with neither of those present, I was very very impressed with last night. And I thought I wouldn't be happy if X wasn't there …

 

[chickensevil]

So yeah, I ended up exiting out of all of my puts finally when my limit order triggered. I in no way caught the bottom, but I still made out like a bandit on today's price action so I am really happy with these past two weeks of trading. My calls for today will likely expire worthless and I don't care one bit

Now, I just need to take a step back, not trade anything else for the day, and accept these past two weeks for what they were and leave it alone.

 

[Johan]

Now, I just need to take a step back, not trade anything else for the day, and accept these past two weeks for what they were and leave it alone.

Good trade. And regardless, it's not like one could ask for a refund or do-over anyway, right?

 

[InTheShadows]

So yeah, I ended up exiting out of all of my puts finally when my limit order triggered. I in no way caught the bottom, but I still made out like a bandit on today's price action so I am really happy with these past two weeks of trading. My calls for today will likely expire worthless and I don't care one bit

Now, I just need to take a step back, not trade anything else for the day, and accept these past two weeks for what they were and leave it alone.

I didn't make out like a bandit but I did manage to make some money, and my strategy was heavily leaning towards a gap up.

I learned a lot from this week and I think I might have a new strategy for playing events like this. Had the stock recovered well today (still has that potential but I very highly doubt it) I would have made out like an army of bandits for no risk after I finished my trades this morning. Right now the stock is at its worst possible place for the trades I made today yet I still made money. At the end of the day I will post my new strategy in the advanced options thread.

I think collectively with the strategies many of us had for the day we could really fine tune some nice plays based on similar price action.