Well, still quite mad about not buying yesterday with the power outage here, my orders which I hoped might happen at open didn't go through because we gapped up so much, sigh. But at close today I bought a nov 22 260-290 spread, not sure why. Break even is about 268. I feel like people might be expecting a delivery miss, but I think they will hit guidance very closely.
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Fluxcap - Great mind think alike, I guess mine's just a little faster though :biggrin:
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Based on today's action and ongoing rumors, I think we will see a small run up in share price as speculators buy on the rumor.
The invites that went out today for the October 9 event strongly hint at a Model X Beta reveal in addition to the P85D launch. The fact that Model X Signature reservation holders are receiving invites implies to me that the X will be there, because it would be a tremendous annoyance for those folks to attend the event and not see the X.
Steady run up until the close of market on the 9th, slight dip on profit taking the next day, then holding until Q3 earnings. Where the stock goes after that depends on meeting guidance and future guidance.
The invites that went out today for the October 9 event strongly hint at a Model X Beta reveal in addition to the P85D launch. The fact that Model X Signature reservation holders are receiving invites implies to me that the X will be there, because it would be a tremendous annoyance for those folks to attend the event and not see the X.
Steady run up until the close of market on the 9th, slight dip on profit taking the next day, then holding until Q3 earnings. Where the stock goes after that depends on meeting guidance and future guidance.
Thats good info, I didn't realize it was signature X holders who are getting the invites primarily...is that confirmed by more than a couple Sig X holders and perhaps part of a thread on this forum somewhere?
just did some research and found this thread..
Is the X Finally Here? ( - Page 2
if you look at post 12 there is a sig s owner who I don't believe is a sig X owner that got the invite....I could be wrong bt I think it's just all sig s and x owners are getting the invite as they are considered VIP supporters
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Yes, Signature S customers are definitely getting invites too. I didn't mean to imply that they'd been left out!
Not sure on the invite status of Roadster owners.
Not sure on the invite status of Roadster owners.
This is correct from everyone I have 'talked' to about the event. I still am skeptical that there will be an X reveal. VERY short notice for people to make work changes/travel plans. Does anyone know what type of lead time was given to the model S reveal??
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This is my concern, that people will rush to the event expecting the X, and not see it. The tweet from Elon about "Something else" sounds too much like "One more thing"… it makes me expect the X even without concrete proof that it will be presented.
No Model X at the October 9 event would probably tank the stock in the short term. That would be a "sell on the [no] news" event. Long term probably no effect, but short term traders beware!
My thought: The 'D' is all the Driver assist, including self parking; after showing that off, Elon steps out of the car and says, 'Oh, something else': steps back into the car and goes 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, and comes back and says 'the super P85D S' with dual motors, 600 hp, and 0-60 in 3+ seconds is here.
Knowing the X would be there would get me to drop just about anything and attend, but not knowing...No.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah the unknown about the something else I like my options right now and will happily sell them off on the 9th (or sooner) before market close and be happy with that run 
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Another possibility.... forum member Trev Page posted something I'd forgotten about:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...and-something-else/page38?p=774630#post774630
The Roadster. Elon had stated previously that Tesla was planning something special for Roadster owners, but gave no specifics. A retrofit for the Roadster that includes a larger improved battery pack AND Supercharger access would be an interesting "something else". I think the stock would tank a bit if this is the surprise, but personally I would be very happy to see the Roadster owners to have an upgrade option.
As a Roadster owner I'd be happy with that, but as a shareholder I'd be very unhappy. I like it (from both viewpoints) that they are going to "do something for Roadster owners", but an event like this has to be about the bigger markets. A Model 3 concept reveal would be huge.
Roadster owner, haven't gotten one. Bought mine used though (from tesla).
Also they said many times that roadster supercharging isn't possible. Plus supercharging would make a 400mi battery even more unnecessary than it already is. Still waiting out for them to offer a smaller roadster battery, myself.
And as for 600hp which someone said, I don't believe that's possible with the current battery. More torque at zero and faster to 60 seem likely though.
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I doubt that Elon would entice the media so much, invite Model X and Model S signature owners to an event, only to deliver less than expected. That's not Elon's style. It's possible we could see more than we expect, including a look at the new Model 3. I'd hate to be low on tsla stock if that event happens.
I think you mean "CA Sig S", and only some of them. Definitely hasn't reached this Sig S owner in WA.
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Totally didn't know he is a model.
palmer_md
Member
Me either, but I'm glad Tesla was able to pick him up before the Ford agency grabbed him.
Muskol
Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
IMO, "one more thing" should not be a Model 3 anything. There is no need to build up additional demand for anything that can't be delivered within twelve months.
chickensevil
Active Member
If Tesla follows their own history... We will get the Beta Model X reveal, then the Model 3 prototype... Not the other way around. So I would agree Model 3 is unlikely at this point, but will likely come within the next few months. Maybe even before the Model X is fully released. Note that they showed the Model X before the first delivery of the Model S happened and that turned out OK. If the Model 3 is a mid-sized sedan, I would suggest that it will have almost no impact on a large CUV... two totally different target audiences.
I would be more worried about the Model 3 canibalizing potential Model S sales than anything, but everyone knows that the Model 3 is coming, so if they have decided to get an S today, then any news about a Model 3 happening in 3 years won't affect their decision to buy today. Any potential "lost" sales due to a concept release would be made up by increased brand recognition and news stories by people who can not only afford a Model S/X but would actually go and buy one.
Keep in mind that there are still so many people here in the US who have never even heard of Tesla, many who have maybe heard about it, but never seen one and don't even think you can get one. So better awareness about the company all around will only serve to increase sales as they get more market penetration.
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