I did some calculations that indicated that a 40kWh battery could push the Model 3 for 200 miles, assuming it uses 250Wh/mile, and that's without the benefit of AWD.
Most people report between 280 Wh and 320 Wh per mile as their general usage of the Tesla Model S. The EPA uses 380 Wh per mile as their determined parameter. I'm not certain how, but apparently they count the total amount of power that leaves the wall when filling, as opposed to the amount of energy stored in the battery pack itself.
Oh, and 40,000 divided by 250 comes to 160... That's still 40 miles short of 200 miles. It would have to be 200 Wh/mile
(or better) to go 200 miles with a 40 kWh battery pack.
My calculations say that a vehicle with a 40 kWh battery pack would have to weigh around 2,800 lbs to approach 200 miles at highway speeds or on the EPA 5-cycle tests. That means the car would have to be about the same size as a two-seater such as the third generation Mazda RX-7. I'd certainly love to see a car like that, but I doubt it will be part of the initial Model ☰ platform. FYI... The Fiat 500e is practically microscopic, and still weighs in at 2,952 lbs and only has a 24 kWh battery pack.
Besides, that would basically be 40% smaller in mass than the Tesla Model S. Elon Musk has said the Model ☰ would be about 20% smaller instead, which works out to roughly 3,700 lbs. Considering that the Tesla Model S 40 had an EPA rated range of 140 miles, that means a Model ☰ 40 would maybe manage a range of 168 miles from them -- if you were lucky. You would have to hypermile on a flat windless plain to crawl over 200 miles in a 40 kWh version of the car, and I don't think that is what Tesla Motors is shooting for at all.
At 50 kWh it certainly becomes
'doable'... The problem is that it is only barely so, maybe 210~212 miles or so. If the EPA again reports a finding only 90% of what Tesla Motors gets in their own tests, then the range would fail to meet the 200+ mile goal at around ~190 miles instead. I believe that Elon would prefer to shatter the goal, rather than fall short of it for a
'moral victory'.
So a 60 kWh battery pack is really the absolute bare minimum that can be used on a vehicle as substantial as the Model ☰ is expected to be. That should be able to achieve ~250 miles of range. And if the EPA [FOULS] Tesla Motors again, it would still be at least 225 miles.