Much of the historical (past factual) numbers have already been given out at the Detroit Auto Show and much of those numbers that we would all be speculating about using VIN assignments (wrong) or some other metric no longer need our 'guesstimations'. The reason for caution is the guidance by Elon: Will he have some 'wow' upbeat 2014 predictions/targets/facts (China reservations/Gigafactory) or keep things fairly conservative and plan to slowly leak out more info at each QER in 2014?
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Much of the historical (past factual) numbers have already been given out at the Detroit Auto Show and much of those numbers that we would all be speculating about using VIN assignments (wrong) or some other metric no longer need our 'guesstimations'. The reason for caution is the guidance by Elon: Will he have some 'wow' upbeat 2014 predictions/targets/facts (China reservations/Gigafactory) or keep things fairly conservative and plan to slowly leak out more info at each QER in 2014?
I'm not expecting much... just FY14 guidance, which I expect to be conservative. Nothing surprising anyway.
I know some people are hoping for numbers about China, but I would be surprised if they give away anything here... they usually do not say much until it comes time to release sales/delivery numbers.
Giga-factory news and NHTSA... I expect them to be separate announcements. We won't learn too much more at the conference call IMO.
So, I actually don't think we'll see much movement (unless the street thinks FY14 guidance is too conservative... but given what happened when they did that in Q3 vs Q4, I don't think they will make the same mistake selling off TSLA again).
I know some people are hoping for numbers about China, but I would be surprised if they give away anything here... they usually do not say much until it comes time to release sales/delivery numbers.
Giga-factory news and NHTSA... I expect them to be separate announcements. We won't learn too much more at the conference call IMO.
So, I actually don't think we'll see much movement (unless the street thinks FY14 guidance is too conservative... but given what happened when they did that in Q3 vs Q4, I don't think they will make the same mistake selling off TSLA again).
IMHO, if you believe that TM will announce a giga-factory with a target quarter for initial production in 2015 then you'd wanna buy calls. If you don't, buy puts
I think everything else, including increased guidance is priced in.
Disclosure: I am long strong TSLA so I hope it goes up
I think everything else, including increased guidance is priced in.
Disclosure: I am long strong TSLA so I hope it goes up
That would be great and you have been right WAY more than wrong......but 40% in 3 months? I will be thrilled with 240-50. No metrics/no hard facts on my guess, just a 'hunch'.
If 280 or greater before March 31st I will owe you yet another beer.
Agree with this type of prediction.
What is so ironic in my opinion is that the super high short interest will be what continues to help catapult this stock to new highs as long as something unexpectedly terrible doesnt happen causing a bunch of weak longs to sell out.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I disagree. I think there is going to be a lot of giga factory talk on the conference call. Elon could not wait to let the cat out of the bag in Europe. He may even talk potential partners and what some of their plans are. If the plans are genius (which I believe they will be) then there is no telling where the stock will go. The impact that this giga factory will have on the world will be the most tremendous thing I think any of us have or will ever see. Even more impactfull than the Internet, cell phones, or the Tesla car.
The world is hanging on the edge of an energy crisis cliff and the role of this giga factory is larger than I think any of us can imagine.
Be warned though, this is my koolaid packet, drink it at your own risk.
Elon Musk talks about electric car cross-country milestone - CBS News
While I have put my back into due diligence, it was the above interview that turned out to be my primary catalyst. Elon seems absolutely comfortable in his own skin. Confident, charming, laughing and joking, the ultimate sales job. Call it a hunch, Q4 will be great.
While I have put my back into due diligence, it was the above interview that turned out to be my primary catalyst. Elon seems absolutely comfortable in his own skin. Confident, charming, laughing and joking, the ultimate sales job. Call it a hunch, Q4 will be great.
I've posted my Q4 2014 Earnings Preview on the following links:
Articles/megaposts by DaveT - Page 21
Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations - Page 16
The summary version is:
$680m revenue (non-GAAP)
25.3% gross margin excluding ZEV income
$34m income (non-GAAP)
$0.21 eps (non-GAAP)
$21m loss (GAAP)
-$0.17 eps (GAAP)
Articles/megaposts by DaveT - Page 21
Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations - Page 16
The summary version is:
$680m revenue (non-GAAP)
25.3% gross margin excluding ZEV income
$34m income (non-GAAP)
$0.21 eps (non-GAAP)
$21m loss (GAAP)
-$0.17 eps (GAAP)
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Just want to clarify a few thing. This is not pure charting. Charting in the traditional sense is drawing the SMAs and the support and resist lines. Or things like Vwap where you actually draw on a chart. Candle stick is a good example of pure charting.
RSI belongs to Technical Analysis. But in reality, all these lines have been blurred recently and effects accentuated by robot trading. The premises of TA is that it gets more accurate as more people follows its usage.
What I find works for me and probably just for me. Is the combination of Charting, TA, FA and Options + stock. I have yet to incorporate Futures because futures mostly deal with stuff I did not care about like commodities and currency. But this is just my style. I am more of a melting pot than a specialist in any particular technique.
+1. Everything else has mostly been factored in. Giga factory talk will be the upside catalyst.
If TSLA hits $280 by end of March, I'll pay for a trip out to the annual TSLA shareholder meeting this year (one RT plane ticket, one night hotel, dinner with me).
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
maxwell
Member
Porsche halts delivery of the 911 GT3.
Just drove to work (at least in an opel Ampera) and heard this in the german radio:
Porsche halts 911 GT3 deliveries after five cars caught fire - report
Just drove to work (at least in an opel Ampera) and heard this in the german radio:
Porsche halts 911 GT3 deliveries after five cars caught fire - report
I heard you, might be a bit of a stretch though, but i'll gladly accept, TSLA @ 280 and your invitation ; ))
jkliu47
Member
206.60 in pre-market.
There is a lot of buzz about Apple/Tesla. Even made it into the morning talk shows...
There is a lot of buzz about Apple/Tesla. Even made it into the morning talk shows...
marvinat0rz
Member
These sky-high price predictions have me very nervous. We all know what happened last time. Granted, the mood is a little more reserved this time.
I am optimistic about the giga-factory, too. I just don't know if it will be revealed at the conference call. I guess it could, but I don't see why it has to be.
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