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14859 (12/2/14)

I think 3 factories exclusively for M3 in 2017 is too optimistic. I do see that eventually happening, but not by 2017 unless they do a gigantic capital raise. I could see a scenario happening where at the end of 2015 they realize Fremont is too small for M3. If they do a favorable secondary...

I think north american demand is much larger than expected. We are still a long way off from adequate service center and supercharger coverage. Furthermore, because SUV's are more popular in NA, I think the Model X demand in NA will be 1.25-1.5x demand of MS. I think in Q2 conference call Elon...

7000 of the 9000 acres are for a potential wind farm. However, the left over 2000 acres could account for either a future factory, two additional gigafactories, or one of each.

No one is scared that some company will come along with a better search algorithm and dethrone Google... People repeatedly get stuck on the point that some new battery will come out and make all of Tesla's progress irrelevant. I don't see that to be a threat at all. I'm not a battery expert...

@jhm here are the discounted Model S's you have been talking about. No need to lower the base price of the Model S if they are hitting that lower price point segment with used S's.

IMO, the starting price of the Model S will never go down. The value proposition, however, will increase over time as new options are added and as technology advances. Tesla packed a whole lot of technology into certain areas of the car like battery management, however they didn't spend much...

Here is my speculation: "D" is the fourth letter of the alphabet, the square root of 4 is 2. Two definitely refers to dual motors. duh. The more important question is where the "D" will go in the badge? PD85+ or P85+D or something else? In his tweet, he says he is glad he didn't say the...

Sorry.. poor word choice. The competition isn't heating up. But just the fact that LG is entering this market is a good sign. This move provides credence to Tesla's belief that it can sell 15 GWh of battery production for stationary storage with the Gigafactory. The results from LG's test with...

I thought the plan was to get significant coverage of major routes and then go back through and add more chargers to each station? I think the number of stations matters less than the capacity to which the network can service. So it makes much more sense to first bolster high traffic routes...

LG Chem to supply over 600,000 battery cells to Southern California Edison for a 32 Mwh stationary storage system. SCE Unveils Largest Battery Energy Storage Project in North America Looks like the competition is heating up.

I welcome the change, perhaps we can start to make a significant dent in the horrendous 30,000+ motor vehicle deaths we have each year in the US alone. Although the rate has been trending down over the past 25 years, 30,000 is unacceptably high IMO. Anecdotally, I have mentioned to friends that...

In the last earnings call I noticed that Adam Jonas and Andrea James were the first two analysts to ask questions. Was this a fluke, or was this Tesla rewarding them for being the two analysts that get Tesla? Following that point, and maybe this is stretching it a bit... I'm interested to see...

Running of the Bulls During the recent dip I mentioned to a friend that has been sitting on the sideline waiting to get in that it might be a decent opportunity to start buying in. The next day they responded that their broker talked them out of it based on a recent report by John Lovallo and...

Can't speak to other brokerages, but with Scottrade Level 2 + Margin enable account you cannot sell a call to cover a lower strike call. You can only sell a covered call. The only way for me to do BCS's was to move to another brokerage. ACAT transfer was complicated and time consuming. If I...

I haven't really seen these posts that you are referring to, or I ignored them. To my understanding the general consensus is that Tesla could recycle whole packs into stationary storage, or cells into raw materials. Unless they say something different, new S owners will always get new battery...

Most brokerages require you to have a higher level of option clearance in order to do spreads. In my experience I would suggest getting approved to at least the level allowing spreads. You might not be comfortable doing those techniques right now, but if you wait you might find yourself in a...

It is interesting to make a parallel between Tesla and some popular consumer electronics, namely the smartphone and laptop market. I think 15 years ago no one really owned pricey portable electronics. The market really shifted with the advent of the laptop and then took another step with the...

If you play near term options with TSLA you are really at the mercy of volatility and therefore the game approaches something closer to zero-sum gambling. I've found with near term options I cannot justify putting much money into my plays; in this sense, volatility is playing against me. There...

Dave, would you be willing to release your subscription numbers and/or analytics periodically? I think it would be informative to know how many people are following. It would provide a metric of sorts, kind of like short interest, but this would be the anti-FUD metric.

Bitcoin is my hedge against government mucking up the economy or the USD failing

You really think there is a lot of pressure to push the stock back down at this point? I think options expiring last Friday was keeping the stock pegged around 260, no surprise it closed at 262 on the button. ATH closings almost every day last week seemed bullish to me... feels like this week is...

I don't think that is a fair argument to make, that in order to avoid disappointment over missing an upgrade, you must lease. I was pointing to the differences between how a cell phone buyer and car buyer would react to missing a major upgrade. Because the consumer upgrade life-cycle between...

I interpreted the supercar to be based on the Model S platform with AWD, and probably a bigger battery and more aggressive styling. This path makes a lot of sense IMO; to roll out new features that will eventually make it down stream to all Model S variants. Without a ton of complication the...

I agree with your premise, but I don't think the situation is quite the same as a cell phone or laptop upgrade. The upgrade cycles for consumer electronics is much shorter than cars. People are upgrading their cell phones and laptops every 1-3 years. Furthermore, consumers buy knowing that...

I built a no cost $500-$510 spread just for kicks. I'm not sure it will go that high by Jan 16, but at some point in the near future -- Model 3 pre-orders?? -- people will see the true potential that Tesla will have. I still think estimates are way too low for how many cars Tesla will be...

Gen 3 pre-orders is a point that I struggle with. How are people seeing this playing out?? I could foresee a situation that after all the positive press from the MS and MX that we could go into the Gen 3 pre-order red hot. We will only have one Gigafactory online at that point, not even at full...

Haha, I noticed that too!! Looked suspiciously similar.

gg_got_a_tesla31,000bonaire31,634Robert.Boston33,675JJR6434,500wycolo35,000GSP36,000clmason36,600Zaxxon36,721StapleGun37,850mrdoubleb38,000Clprenz38,000farzyness38,500chickensvil38,700SteveG338,800PeterW39,150Discoducky40,000rrosenbl40,000Warrenbonz40,123gym7rjm40,123RationalOptimist40,309MikeC40...

As an investor I don't want to see the S price come down ever:) I would suspect the stock gains associated with having a very high profit margin would benefit my portfolio a lot more than a cost reduction when I am in the market for an S. I also believe that the Model E will have a huge range...

Nice! congrats on the BTC gains!! I actually just bought a lot more when it dipped into the low $500's. I was going to write about it in the "Other Tech Stocks" thread, but decided not too because my previous posts on Bitcoin didn't really garner much attention.

Mario, what you are suggesting is sort of like dollar-cost averaging. It is a strategy that some investors feel comfortable with, but the studies done researching this method show that if you have a lump sum of money it is better to just invest it all at once rather than using DCA.

I hope they do this... and then build two Gigafactories instead of one.

Ugh, feel ur pain. I sold my March options yesterday:'( I was using a lot of margin and was getting uncomfortable with the short term options. Oh well, can't be too disappointed with profit.

Can we get a wiki post at the front of the thred with everyone's guess?? I'm willing to go through and compile everything.

40,123

Following your reservation estimates, there won't actually be billions in cash available before the rollout of the model E. The problem I see is that reservations will exponentially increase after the car starts selling and people see how amazing it is. There may be maximum 500k people willing...

The current model is using an 8x multiplier between standard reservations and signature reservations, so if you have $2k as the standard reservation $15k (rounded from 16) would seem logical. But I even think they could go higher because the demand will be there, so maybe $2.5k and $20k?

This is actually a point that scares me as an investor. The Model E will be a home-run and I'm certain of it, but how do you prepare for something like that? One Gigafactory will definitely not be enough, but you can't justify building 3 of them right now. Same with factories... Freemont is not...

Since we are talking spreads, with the options expiry on Friday I just profited from my first delayed construct bull call spread. On January 29th, when the stock was around 175, I bought 10 Feb $175 calls at $12.40 per contract. Two days later on January 31st I sold 10 Feb $185 calls at $12.45...

If your mortgage rate is low you coukd take out a home equity loan. Better than borrowing on margin.

Doug Kass added to his short position in after hours making his cost basis $212... Do these guys ever learn? On another note. Thanks to all the contributors on the Hangout, it was really informative to hear everyone's perspective on things. What headphones were you wearing Flux? Your sound...

Is there a standard or advisable range for the delta you should have on your account? Or is it totally up to your risk tolerance? My net delta was very large since I initiated all my positions for this call. I'm happy about the results, but it was crazy to see all the swings these past few...

Was jotting down some reactions to the call as I was listening... here are the things that I liked hearing: 1. Elon thinks its possible to get to 1000 per week Model S... also thinks Model X demand will outpace S. This equals >100k S+X per year projection without sales in China even having...

Nice job everyone! Feels like Q1 all over again. I was unbelievably nervous for this one, went in totally unhedged on a whole lot calls. I was so close to hedging yesterday because I didn't want to taste another Q3, but all signs were pointing to a blow out so I just trusted my gut. Thanks...

208 pre market... Squeeeeeeeeeze Thinking I might unload some of my March 210s today. Feeling pretty good about them right now, 22 at $4.70 cost basis :biggrin:

Up 3% in pre market , wow.

Yeah, honestly I don't think the apple rumors are bad At all. It gives more credibility to the stock price by reaffirming the future growth that could (read 'will') happen. People see the meteoric rise that Apple went through and if Apple is associating with Tesla that fairy tale becomes a...

I echo Robert.Boston in thinking that the recent rise in price is more a recovery from all the stuff that happened before. Several things make me bullish for earnings. First, the pre-announcement of sales figures. They did this prior to Q1'13 and despite the pre-release there was still a massive...

No gap down really... Is this the market shrugging off the fire? Or has the news not significantly permeated?