Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Causalien]

Capital raise will put a new floor. If it is done at a higher price than that day's close again. TSLA is the only company that can pull this off right now and I think they should take advantage of it again. This is feeling like the $20 again.

When the analyst ask if there are other partners who might get involved in the gigafactory that is not in the car or battery industry. Elon's reflex response was a very soft "yeah". So I expect some surprise partnership at the giga announcement. Though it does surprise me that it is a separate event itself. Which means that it took the whole of 3 months since last ER till now to hammer down and became a lot bigger than a small side note at this ER.

 

[SteveG3]

So... Follow on offering next week? How much dilution this time? Will the market swallow it up just like last time?

it sounded like that at first, but I'm quite sure Elon clarified, follow on at some point in the next 3 years would be a very good idea; they have flexibility as to when in those 3 years to do so.

 

[justdoit]

Elon on Bloomberg soon

Twitter / BettyInTheLoop: .@teslamotors conf call just ...

 

[davecolene0606]

Considering Elon said that the offering will be necessary to do Gen III in 3 years, but not if the time window is allowed to be wider, then I think this is considered positive news as it does show adding specific value and making vaporware products real. So I'd assume the market takes it in stride or if the dilution is marginal actually as a positive catalyst.

I think minor dilution will be absorbed as institutional entities find an entry point to hold long term. In short demand still exceeding supply for shares especially at a still reasonable entry point.

 

[Cameron]

Perhaps the giga factory news will come next Monday during Solarcity earnings?

 

[FluxCap]

Capital raise will put a new floor. If it is done at a higher price than that day's close again. TSLA is the only company that can pull this off right now and I think they should take advantage of it again. This is feeling like the $20 again.

When the analyst ask if there are other partners who might get involved in the gigafactory that is not in the car or battery industry. Elon's reflex response was a very soft "yeah". So I expect some surprise partnership at the giga announcement. Though it does surprise me that it is a separate event itself. Which means that it took the whole of 3 months since last ER till now to hammer down and became a lot bigger than a small side note at this ER.

Solar partner incoming? I think so. A giant plant that turns the sun and raw materials into fully-charged Tesla batteries, powers the plant, serves as a recycling center as well, and right next to a production plant, that's my theory.

 

[austinEV]

I think delaying the Giga factory announcement is a stroke of genius. It indicates it will happen, keeps everyone anticipating and leaves all the people who are shorts wondering whether to head for the hills now or be swept out potentially by another wave of good news.

YES! I was thinking that another big call in a week or two would give pause to those who would run for the exits and take profits, and give shorts extra incentive to leave.

 

[chickensevil]

YES! I was thinking that another big call in a week or two would give pause to those who would run for the exits and take profits, and give shorts extra incentive to leave.

But but, I need to exit and take profits... Ugh... I guess I will hold on for now...

 

[austinEV]

I technically do to, as I am loaded up on Feb22 calls, but I might roll them for a bit.

 

[gym7rjm]

Was jotting down some reactions to the call as I was listening... here are the things that I liked hearing:

1. Elon thinks its possible to get to 1000 per week Model S... also thinks Model X demand will outpace S. This equals >100k S+X per year projection without sales in China even having started. Elon is typically conservative, so this was extremely positive to hear. Think DaveT mentioned in a post that once analysts hear about 100k S+X potential production a $25 billion valuation will be easily justifiable; we'll see $300 this year.

2. In earlier quarters I thought it was a good practice to game the deliveries in order to achieve great numbers and prove the shorts wrong. I was happy to hear that Elon will not try to do this in future quarters. It is a progression that shows increasing strength.

3. Elon doesn't see there being any adoption issues in China considering the large amount of people living in apartments and condos there. He seems to have a solution in mind for urban residents. Excellent news, not just for china, but for all city dwellers concerned about charging without a garage. Could this be a wider deployment of the mobile supercharger stations? Another solution that comes to mind, mentioned at the Norway event Q/A, is the potential to license the supercharger technology. Imagine supercharger stations in cities run by private companies and branded under a different name. Superchargers would always remain free and Tesla could always market this amazing perk, but licensing would alleviate any expectation that Tesla would provide free charging to customers for daily use. Superchargers, in my mind, have always been about enabling distance traveling.

4. CHINA, CHINA, CHINA!!! Couldn't have been any clearer. Demand will not be able to be met in 2014... Like a fish jumping in the boat. Quote of the year.

5. Elon refused to comment on any changes to the Model S. Design will continue to improve. I think this response was to a question about option carry over from the model X (i.e. 4wd). Very smart not to officially announce any future improvements. It was clear by his answer that 4wd on the Model S will be imminent, but I like the practice that these changes are not pre-announced far in advance. No risk of cannibalizing existing sales by having people wait for the next best option to come out.

 

[joefee]

I would like to again thank the shorts for their generosity and provide them another warning to cover ASAP re next weeks announcement. Speculation: How about Apple investing x billions (along with other battery partners) in Tesla and Apple agrees to joint development of an auto IOS interface, self driving car, sources/recycles batteries from the new Giga Plant and "other stuff we can't even think" of as per Steve Jobs:love:

 

[DaveT]

Elon Musk on Bloomberg:
Musk: A Sale of Tesla Very Unlikely: Video - Bloomberg

Only a Few Years Away from Autonomous Driving: Musk: Video - Bloomberg

 

[chickensevil]

I would like to again thank the shorts for their generosity and provide them another warning to cover ASAP re next weeks announcement. Speculation: How about Apple investing x billions (along with other battery partners) in Tesla and Apple agrees to joint development of an auto IOS interface, self driving car, sources/recycles batteries from the new Giga Plant and "other stuff we can't even think" of as per Steve Jobs:love:

I think he said specifically that the batteries they produce in the factory will be Tesla's batteries. As in, they will sell them/use them for their own purposes. What I am gathering from the "joint-venture" basically amounts to them agreeing to very specific companies as far as supply chains... which is why they are called partners. Company X gets a stable and large company (Tesla) to always be buying up their products. Because they will be making the batteries from scratch in the factory all the way up through the final product being the battery pack. So the lithium, cobalt, etc raw materials will be brought into the factory, and they will be shipping out the fully built and assembled packs.

 

[kenliles]

I think he said specifically that the batteries they produce in the factory will be Tesla's batteries. As in, they will sell them/use them for their own purposes. What I am gathering from the "joint-venture" basically amounts to them agreeing to very specific companies as far as supply chains... which is why they are called partners. Company X gets a stable and large company (Tesla) to always be buying up their products. Because they will be making the batteries from scratch in the factory all the way up through the final product being the battery pack. So the lithium, cobalt, etc raw materials will be brought into the factory, and they will be shipping out the fully built and assembled packs.

I agree, that's the color I got from his comments. It lowered my expectation that Apple might be involved (at least in a meaningful way). Sounds like the capacity won't even be enough for Tesla cars and storage(SCTY), much less others. Probably best anyway- locks it up for Tesla's play shutting out competitors at least for while

 

[tslas]

I was thinking of taking my profits but I am going to wait for the Giga Factory announcement now..

YES! I was thinking that another big call in a week or two would give pause to those who would run for the exits and take profits, and give shorts extra incentive to leave.

 

[MikeC]

Elon Musk on Bloomberg:
Musk: A Sale of Tesla Very Unlikely: Video - Bloomberg

Interviewer: "Is there any truth to a possible partnership/merger with Apple?"
Elon: (Stammering) "If one or more companies had approached us last year about such things, there's no way we could really comment on that."
Interviewwer: "Well did you have a conversation with Apple?"
Elon: (Nervous laughter) "We had conversations with Apple...I can't comment on whether those revolved around any kind of acquisition."

That sure sounds to me like Apple and other companies approached them about a merger.

 

[joefee]

I think he said specifically that the batteries they produce in the factory will be Tesla's batteries.

That's if you only think of the "1st factory" and it's initial production....think long term partnership. You are correct in the short term.

 

[brianstorms]

Interviewer: "Is there any truth to a possible partnership/merger with Apple?"
Elon: (Stammering) "If one or more companies had approached us last year about such things, there's no way we could really comment on that."
Interviewwer: "Well did you have a conversation with Apple?"
Elon: (Nervous laughter) "We had conversations with Apple...I can't comment on whether those revolved around any kind of acquisition."

That sure sounds to me like Apple and other companies approached them about a merger.

I wouldn't have characterized that as "Nervous laughter" -- I took Elon's laughter as saying "You just asked me that and I answered very firmly and here you are trying to ask me again"

 

[evme]

Hmm..I found this weird thing on the news feed:

"Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla Motors, indicated that he is planning to use the electric car company’s soaring share price to raise cash next week for a giant battery cell factory."


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=30&cad=rja&ved=0CEUQqQIoADAJOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fb5db84b6-999b-11e3-b3a2-00144feab7de.html&ei=2FwFU9CTMuPfsAS0-4K4CA&usg=AFQjCNHb0F3tQBJhpEzOvtium18SGeVwqw

(You need to disable javascript and then click that link to see it)

Was there any mention of this in the call? OR where they are getting this from?

 

[brianstorms]

It was in response to the first analyst question, about since the stock has appreciated of late, did Elon think it was time to take advantage of that for financing purposes, or words to that effect, and Elon agreed that that made a lot of sense....