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I have 50x options open currently. Many CCs went >40% profitable when the FSD FUD went out. I didn't take a profit as I was surprised and am now waiting for next week for >70%. IMO, discussion of this is extremely material. I'm on day 12 of NO disengagements. And if I may, "SH$t is gettin'...

Yikes, these premiums suck

Let's have a quick call and sort this out? Anyone game? There's a space on X I participate in in about 3 hours here:

Yep, it is coming as early as Q4 this year, with incremental improvements culminating in the full "unboxed" manufacturing process later.

Ashok revealed, and I wish I could have asked him directly, that Tesla is on the March of 9s, however, he basically explains it in this clip, which is, IMO, the most important 5 minutes of information on the future value of Tesla as this will enable unsupervised FSD and Optimus. In summary...

I'm a huge fan of options trading....The biggest takeaway for options trading is that Ashok said they have insight into the next two builds of FSD which they KNOW, through validation, are better than previous versions for reliability (listen to the call for the details as they do NOT release...

It has grown so much over the last 12 years and I've let the mod's know that I've put so many people on ignore as I find the discourse abrasive. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and strong beliefs, that is fine, but it honestly feels like yelling fire in a crowded theatre so I ignore it. I...

I heard the opposite that 4680s will be more cost competitive than suppliers cells by end of year.

That got a chuckle out of me, but nevertheless, he mentioned it! Since they have insight into the reliability of the next few builds of FSD and know when they'll be starting robotaxis, that is when I'd do a buyback and trigger the mother of all squeezes.

In all honesty, I have no freakin' idea which way the SP is going to go for earnings today. I think the only guarantee is that it will be a wild ride. 4/26 100x +p75s $0.01 and 100x +c200s $0.06

I'm hedging to the downside (bought $130 puts) as I'm worried about the "one more thing" from earnings today like China FSD or Giga India and I don't wanna be caught collecting pennies in front of a steamroller.

a lot of $150 puts tells me there should be a push to finish today there

This morning something amazing occurred. Based on the below details I believe that Tesla has implemented dynamic map metadata improvements in near real-time. NOTE: This is the **ONLY** place I could get FSD 12.3.4 to consistently fail. Another NOTE: FSD does NOT seem to read/ingest/use road...

A few thoughts below... My sense for the upcoming announcements prior to and at earnings are going to be profound. Why? Tesla could walk down several paths to fulfill the company's mission. If I had to pick one, it would be to resolve each major car markets regulatory needs by putting...

Pretty sure @Knightshade is referring to inductive charging so that they can autonomously charge 1000's of times in any environment quickly.

IMO, this is the first of many India Tesla announcements which also coincided with a Starlink India announcement.

Now, why would he do that? and yes, I agree, he's the boy who cried FSD, however, I've got about 300+ urban miles w/o **ANY** interventions. 100% of my drives are on FSD as well. Many two lane complex roundabouts w/traffic mitigation, multi-lane UPL, obstructed views and obtuse/oblique...

Yep, every state requires J3016 as a defining standard, but J3016 is NOT itself a requirement. Find the doc here: SAE Levels of Driving Automation™ Refined for Clarity and International Audience 8.1 talks about this: Also from this statement, I conclude that the current model could be put...

It sucks to see an engineering powerhouse leave Tesla. Working with Drew wasn't always easy as he always demanded the best from everyone at all times, but like Elon, was just about the engineering and only the engineering so you always knew you could count on focus and rigor in the teams he...

FYI, for this issue of going the wrong way in a roundabout. Good bug! Bug title: FSD became 'wedged' into a bad state during map metadata ingest, Severity 0, Priority 1. Short description: There seems to be a handoff/sync issue when map nav is engaged/change while FSD is enabled.

Make and model has very little to do with how well it functions outside of the model possibly being spatially ego static and since S and X are wider it seems to keep right too far. I have two vehicles, 2021 3 is on 12.3.3 and 2017 X is on 12.3.4 HW3 MCU

Sorry, but I disagree. When there are ZERO repeatable critical/safety disengagements from the ENTIRE fleet that signals/suggests that the current approach is working/scalable. Next step/milestone is explaining the fractional critical DEs from the 12 stack and remember we are NOT talking about...

Yeah, 12.x hands over to the 11 stack when transitioning to a class 4/5 road (aka highway). I'd assume this will get addressed in a month or so and the reason it is like this is most likely that the highway 12 stack is still training (yep, it might take over a month to train).

Sooooo, I can't break 12.3.4. I had several things that 11.x either could barely do or not all. 12.3.4 has no issue that I can detect after nearly 200+ miles and I'll drive more, but this is sublime. And I've tried, really really tried to break it. Throwing all kinds of traffic and...

*IF* it plays out that way...yeah

Sure, a bit of context as I worked on the rollout of traffic/routing/voice guidance/turn-by-turn nav for Google Maps so I'm very aware of the urban/rural challenges of car navigation/transport. And as roads are mainly traversed in 'interesting ways' there is a huge need to bring more order...

Visit 2 days prior to earnings...wow https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-india-visit-april-21-22-report

Quite the 4/26 $150 put wall. This is making me want to buy some puts and use profits to buy more shares in the next two weeks.

My only regression with 12 vs 11 is dirt roads or unmarked roads/lanes.

That's great! And for anyone that has 12.3.4, if you encounter any repeatable critical/safety urban city street (non-highway) areas where you feel like you need to provide human feedback, please tag me!

FWIW, the India giga announcement is the largest SP catalyst I can see other than a large interest rate cut. I'm hoping this happen prior to earnings or at earnings and I'm watching this closely as it will signal a massive shift for Tesla to autonomy

After earnings or before?

Sorry, typing on phone during vacation means I'm not verbose. Electronic Power Assist Steering = EPAS The current model understands spatial needs of ego (vehicle with FSD actuation) and all static and dynamic scene elements. This is largely new I gather as we've seen close curbing on...

Is your concern just when there's no nav for FSD to follow? IMO they are prioritizing solving for the main use case first, which is no human input. The next priority is to capture enough details to learn from any disengagements. This is best done with a nav route and why the current builds are...

Good question, it feels like 12.x is more weighted to use map data and is tuned to be comfortable by anticipating turns. IOWs they've opted to train with these hints.

After driving mine for a week, it feels like the new EPAS steering is the main reason. The spatial needs are not as substantial. Critical safety code takes a ton of work.

All data from all vehicles is applicable

Thank goodness as 303k is a big #

I got caught up in this hype a few years ago, around s & p inclusion. BH owns the largest dealer network in the country was my conclusion. https://www.berkshirehathawayautomotive.com/locations/index.htm

Wow, is this right? "Note the $180 C for today was up +1000% near the peak with gamma at one point 0.07 and delta near 0.29."

My candidate for the market reversal

Looks to be more of a market move, affecting other tech stocks as well it seems, similar pattern

The whole AP team was in the front row

Redundancy is in the compute/software. It is fully compliant.

to be clear, just the announcement in the next year or so IMO would be a long shot. But **IF** that happens, I'd expect Ford to be first. They have the most to lose due to the whole truck being the cornerstone of their profit (well at least the financing of the truck).

Ok, if this happens, which is a huge long shot for this year and maybe next, would also really move the stock

BYD is massively expanding and IMO all good for Tesla as this will not only accelerate the transition to sustainable energy/transportation, but also eliminate the not-so-good supposed competitive EVs cluttering/confusing the US market.

This pending India Giga announcement, which seems to be moving at a glacial pace, is the only one that I think will move the stock in a meaningful way outside of FSD hitting 1000+ miles to critical DE.

Deepak went to Zipline, but Zach hasn't announced or posted anything since leaving; maybe he retired like me?

IMO, Dan is focused on the new CFOs lack of forecasting as the 'disaster' which I agree with. I miss Zach and Deepak's updates.