During the yesterday's interview with NYT financial columnist Andrew Sorkin, Elon Musk mentioned that Tesla Motors has "almost 25,000 cars on the road"
1min 20sec mark: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/elon-musks-next-blue-sky-idea/?_r=0
So, pulling out my abacus and doing the math:
Roadsters sold: 2,400
Q4 2012 Model S sold: 2,600
Q1 2013 Model S sold: 4,900
Q2 2013 Model S sold: 5,150
Q3 2013 Model S sold: 5,500
TOTAL delivered to customers: 20,550
Total worldwide demo fleet: 69 stores x 5 cars = 345 cars
Total worldwide loaner fleet: 53 SC x 5 cars = 265 cars
TOTAL on the road: 21,160
Assuming that "almost 25,000 cars on the road" equal to a minimum of 24,500 cars, Tesla as of yesterday delivered 24,500-21,160 = 3,340 cars. It is not clear if deliveries will be linear throughout the quarter, but assuming that they are, means that Tesla could deliver 3,340 x 6 /12 = 6680 vehicles in Q4. This seem to be kind of in line with their projection of 6,000 cars and the level of conservatism that they usually build into the projections. It also yields average production of 556 cars per week.
There is a maximum of 500 cars per quarter (41 cars/week) upside for these numbers if there are more than 24,500 cars on the road.
The downside depens on the average quantity of demo cars/store and loaner cars/SC. Assuming that each has an additional car above the 5 cars used in calculation will yield reduction by 69 + 53 = 122 cars/quarter (10 cars/week).
There is no allowance to cars in transition to Europe because Deepak Ahuja mentioned during the Q3 call that pipe of the deliveries to Europe is filled.
1min 20sec mark: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/elon-musks-next-blue-sky-idea/?_r=0
So, pulling out my abacus and doing the math:
Roadsters sold: 2,400
Q4 2012 Model S sold: 2,600
Q1 2013 Model S sold: 4,900
Q2 2013 Model S sold: 5,150
Q3 2013 Model S sold: 5,500
TOTAL delivered to customers: 20,550
Total worldwide demo fleet: 69 stores x 5 cars = 345 cars
Total worldwide loaner fleet: 53 SC x 5 cars = 265 cars
TOTAL on the road: 21,160
Assuming that "almost 25,000 cars on the road" equal to a minimum of 24,500 cars, Tesla as of yesterday delivered 24,500-21,160 = 3,340 cars. It is not clear if deliveries will be linear throughout the quarter, but assuming that they are, means that Tesla could deliver 3,340 x 6 /12 = 6680 vehicles in Q4. This seem to be kind of in line with their projection of 6,000 cars and the level of conservatism that they usually build into the projections. It also yields average production of 556 cars per week.
There is a maximum of 500 cars per quarter (41 cars/week) upside for these numbers if there are more than 24,500 cars on the road.
The downside depens on the average quantity of demo cars/store and loaner cars/SC. Assuming that each has an additional car above the 5 cars used in calculation will yield reduction by 69 + 53 = 122 cars/quarter (10 cars/week).
There is no allowance to cars in transition to Europe because Deepak Ahuja mentioned during the Q3 call that pipe of the deliveries to Europe is filled.
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I guess the upside is, by the time ER comes along, Tesla already have good intel on how good the next quarter is going. Perhaps this is what led to Elon's remark.
