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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Long time lurker here.

Bloomberg TV had a 5 minute debate between an auto dealer lobbyist and a UM economics professor who has been working to undo all the state-level franchise defending laws and regs.

The auto dealer lobbyist made two statements that the UM professor had a field day with ... the lobbyist claimed in one sentence that "Tesla has a monopoly!" Then in another sentence boasted how Tesla only has 0.1% of NJ marketshare. The professor quickly stated that one can not have a "monopoly on a single brand" and that it was ridiculous for a group that has 99.9% market share to claim that a company with 0.1% market share has a monopoly.

The lobbyist also tried to tie the current GM non-recall fiasco to "Tesla might do the same someday." Meanwhile, back in reality the GM fiasco occurred under the very system the lobbyist was defending.

It was comedy, and any inventor with half a brain can see the ridiculousness of the lobbyists arguments.

Still waiting for the link on bloomberg ... it might be a little bit ...

Here's the link:

Tesla Business Model in N.J. `Unlawful': Appleton: Video - Bloomberg

The lobbyist's arguments are obviously completely nonsensical.

He argues that Tesla's vertical integration unfairly isolates it from price competition. I'm unclear on how a business running efficiently is unfair.

He argues that dealers protect consumers from buying cars from disreputable manufacturers, in the same way that the SEC protects people from buying fraudulent securities. I guess he doesn't realize that consumers are already protected by many layers of federal regulation, such as NHTSA.

The position is so transparent as anticompetitive bullying by anybody with half a brain.
 
The simpleton says that "Tesla has a monopoly on Tesla cars" uh.... DUH? They're the only ones building it! You'd still have to buy tesla cars from tesla to resell them to customers! Wake me up when dealers BUILD cars.

Oh and SpaceX has a monopoly on SpaceX rockets too, would you like to carry inventory of spacex rockets in your dealership? ._.

And I have a monopoly over my fingers. So does everybody else. Someone re-teach this guy the definition of monopoly.. :rolleyes:
 
Just sad and strange that a dealer lobbyist would argue that Tesla crushes competition.

Yes you freaking moron. Dealers are a millstone around the neck of manufacturers and competitive disadvantage.

Monopoly - LOL - the idea of Tesla's sales model resulting in it pricing itself out of the auto market is the only thing that could possibly give dealers peace and a hope justifying their existence.

Bunch of scum. Prove it.
 
Well damn, I had a strong feeling last night when going to sleep that we were going to have a good day today as people realized NJ didn't mean anything, and I didn't act on it. Oh well.

The simpleton says that "Tesla has a monopoly on Tesla cars"

Actually, this is quite interesting. This statement really provides a window into the minds of the dealers, I think.

First, it reeks of jealousy - "it's no fair, why can't WE sell the best car from the hottest brand!"

But second, and perhaps more importantly - it speaks to the moat which Tesla has. Now, I don't actually believe that Tesla has a significant technological advantage. At the end of the day an EV is a very simple thing to make, much much simpler than a gas car, and I guarantee that the auto companies, if they actually bothered to put effort into it, could make a competitive EV to Tesla. It's not like nobody else can use 18650s, and everyone uses the same type of motor anyway, and they could write an internet-updating car OS, and they can make good interiors, etc. However, the problem is that their minds are in the wrong place, and most of them don't actually want to put effort into making an attractive EV - but this is not insurmountable. So where is Tesla's moat, if not in technology?

I think the moat evidenced by this guy's comment is in the minds of the consumer. He speaks of "Tesla cars" as if they're an actual thing, a different thing which only Tesla can make...and he's right. Tesla is the only company capable of making Tesla cars. Why does this matter though? Because Tesla is the de facto brand of the future. Tesla is *the* EV maker. Tesla is cool, they have first mover advantage, and people who know they exist identify them inextricably with EVs. Everyone who wants an electric car wants a Tesla. Tesla is the iPod, anything else which comes out from a bigger, established company is the Zune. Tesla won this brand battle, they did so in plain view of everyone, they did so while being written off, after announcing their intentions publicly many times, and now the traditional portion of the industry doesn't know what to do about it.

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years we see Tesla's name turn into a genericized trademark for electric cars, a la "kleenex" and "rollerblades."
 
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Well damn, I had a strong feeling last night when going to sleep that we were going to have a good day today as people realized NJ didn't mean anything, and I didn't act on it. Oh well.



Actually, this is quite interesting. This statement really provides a window into the minds of the dealers, I think.

First, it reeks of jealousy - "it's no fair, why can't WE sell the best car from the hottest brand!"

But second, and perhaps more importantly - it speaks to the moat which Tesla has. Now, I don't actually believe that Tesla has a significant technological advantage. At the end of the day an EV is a very simple thing to make, much much simpler than a gas car, and I guarantee that the auto companies, if they actually bothered to put effort into it, could make a competitive EV to Tesla. It's not like nobody else can use 18650s, and everyone uses the same type of motor anyway, and they could write an internet-updating car, and they can make good interiors, etc. However, the problem is that their minds are in the wrong place, and most of them don't actually want to put effort into making an attractive EV - but this is not insurmountable. So where is Tesla's moat, if not in technology?

I think the moat evidenced by this guy's comment is in the minds of the consumer. He speaks of "Tesla cars" as if they're an actual thing, a different thing which only Tesla can make...and he's right. Tesla is the only company capable of making Tesla cars. Why does this matter though? Because Tesla is the de facto brand of the future. Tesla is *the* EV maker. Tesla is cool, they have first mover advantage, and people who know they exist identify them inextricably with EVs. Everyone who wants an electric car wants a Tesla. Tesla is the iPod, anything else which comes out from a bigger, established company is the Zune. Tesla won this brand battle, they did so in plain view of everyone, they did so while being written off, after announcing their intentions publicly many times, and now the traditional portion of the industry doesn't know what to do about it.

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years we see Tesla's name turn into a genericized trademark for electric cars, a la "kleenex" and "rollerblades."

i liked that ipod/zune analogy.
 
The auto dealers' lobbyists remind me of the black comedy movie "Thank You For Smoking", with Aaron Eckhart doing a fabulous job as a lobbyist. If you haven't seen it, it will give you a(nother) laugh. While I'm laughing at the real life parody, I'm also angry on the inside because this dealer association crap is so frustrating.
 
In the after hours, one block of 76500 shares went for 247.5. That's the daily high. Why would someone do a block trade at the high of the day- I assume it's a mutual fund or some other large institution moving shares, but why not take the daily weighted average? Anyone from wallstreet know why they do this? Is this tradition?
17:08$ 247.50 High76,500
 
Jesus, what's this all about?

Screen Shot 2014-03-12 at 2.12.26 PM.png
 
The auto dealers' lobbyists remind me of the black comedy movie "Thank You For Smoking", with Aaron Eckhart doing a fabulous job as a lobbyist. If you haven't seen it, it will give you a(nother) laugh. While I'm laughing at the real life parody, I'm also angry on the inside because this dealer association crap is so frustrating.

Coincidentally, Elon executive-produced and appeared in the movie "Thank You For Smoking". Strange, but true.
 
Now, I don't actually believe that Tesla has a significant technological advantage. At the end of the day an EV is a very simple thing to make, much much simpler than a gas car, and I guarantee that the auto companies, if they actually bothered to put effort into it, could make a competitive EV to Tesla. It's not like nobody else can use 18650s, and everyone uses the same type of motor anyway, and they could write an internet-updating car OS, and they can make good interiors, etc. However, the problem is that their minds are in the wrong place, and most of them don't actually want to put effort into making an attractive EV - but this is not insurmountable. So where is Tesla's moat, if not in technology?

Actually, about the only part of the car that the major auto companies make these days is the ICE... they outsource most of the other systems. And therein lies the problem for them... they can't just make an EV "if they really wanted to" because it would mean producing an entirely different powerplant that is a competitor to their ICE. Internal politics make that sort of thing very difficult.
 
FYI, this is the reason for the spike up about 2 hours before the close, and in AH:

Musk’s Tesla Hires Chief Spokesman From Renault-Nissan - Bloomberg

I'm very pleased by this talent acquisition, looks to be another ace Elon Musk hire.


Interesting. I think we are looking at a guy with RHD market experience. UK, Japan in particular and I think he has the sensitivity to deal with the EU market.

He does not appear particularly hamstrung with Big Auto attitudes, he is no Detroit man, that is for certain and as a matter of fact I believe he would be a fish out of water in the US market. Curiously from the crop of interviews available on YouTube his key "pillars" as he calls them - EV, Connectivity, Autonomy - are attributes that are exemplified by Tesla and not Nissan.

Technically he is weak. He clearly as at 2011 had no clue how to describe or discuss Nissan Leaf battery technology and as recently as Jan 2014 he committed a glaring error on interview with respect to fast charging (the sort of thing Tesla or Nissan would get sued for if a customer relied upon it to purchase a vehicle, namely full charge in 30 minutes), actually the content of the 2011 interview would attract liabilities also. This is not necessarily Simon's fault, Nissan is technically weak from the top downwards. The engineering is Japanese and both a class divide and a language barrier away from senior management.

Clearly this is a power move to extract Simon from Nissan and he comes packaged with a reflection of how the industry outside of Tesla views Tesla.

Looking at the European 2014 car of the year awards (the one where the "Tesla S" not even Tesla Model S placed third behind the i3 and bizarrely the Peugeot 308, the judges descriptions of why they voted the way they did speaks of a Europe that simply does not get it yet). I think Simon is the right voice to carry the message to Europe. There is some humility that comes with a history at Nissan along with a nice twist of Jaguar that will translate well IMO - better perhaps than O'Connell piling on the US Military trained air of confidence. I just hope to goodness that Simon gets some serious technical support and an indoctrination in gut feel for EV passion in order to say the right thing. The Germans and Scandinavians in particular will crucify a Tesla guy that does not understand batteries.

JC
 
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