Search results

Perhaps I might chip in too. I am a Senior Partner and Consultant Business Strategist with EV Volumes. We have unique advanced data on global EV and PHEV sales volumes with national granularity (including of course for Tesla) also the traction battery industry, charging infrastructure and...

Am I just dreaming or didn't they say they estimated $750M was required on the Earnings Call? They clearly said they were upping CapEx from $1.5b by 50% - so another $750M - and that was to take them up to production readiness in Summer 2017 parts pending. Any reason to imagine there could be...

Maximizing shareholder value (in the long run at least) is the fiduciary duty of a Chairman, a CEO, an Executive and a Board of Directors. It is entirely fine for any company to absorb shareholder value while progressing towards profitability. Whether that is three weeks, three to five years...

As far as I understand it, new GAAP rules go into effect on Jan 1 2017 which would allow Tesla to put an end to under-declaring GAAP revenues and profits due to the current GAAP lease accounting. The current rules cannot distinguish between a normal real lease where the seller owns the car and...

Just to jot a note here. Two a couple of posts back I drilled down into the nature of the revised guidance to point out a white swan warning for near term funding on abnormally favorable terms and disconnected from the sale of equities. Something that Musk was likely confident enough in before...

Not sure and can't really stop to find out atm. Just one thing springs to mind is that pre Wheeler I don't think they called the revolver thing an ABL - and that might not even be relevant - and from memory they were not FCF positive in Q4 15 anyway - and that might not be relevant to your...

NP. My post was just a general description of the ABL for anyone interested. Can't really answer your question definitively without researching it too - off hand I don't think it is a cut and dried as a before and after thing. GAAP FCF is what it is. This ABL use and Cash Flows from Core...

Just generally about the ABL ($1billion Asset Backed Loan Facility - aka revolving line of bank credit) They want investors to consider a management accounts view of the use of ABL funds. Basically advanced cash flow on goods in transit for cars that are shipping to order - and to consider the...

Guidance is owed to Longs etc. OK I think it is possible to start getting some clarity from following this trail. As touched on before it is weird to guide longs to building factory capacity etc when you don't yet have the money to execute. In fact it is not even guidance in the classic sense...

Guidance is owed to Longs, not shorts, shorts are not shareholders and are owed no fiduciary duty of care whatsoever. Letting them imagine the worst and disappointing them is fair game. What is weird is promising the Longs performance like building factories before knowing where the money is...

Viral News? Think you might be the last man alive to catch on. Been explaining this to people on and off for years including several times this year. This is why TSLA trades on what the shorts make of the news, not the longs. At best it trades on what the shorts think the longs think of the news.

They said the want to start spending from June which is Juliy = Q3 - which probably leaves Q2 in the clear. If this is the plan: Then the massively stupid thing that has hapened here is that they told the Bears their spending plans and revised.guidance in advance of that Q2 ER based raise...

Papafox. I AM primarily in shares and patiently waiting for TSLA to hit $500, always have been. If a fancy side bet comes up I trade it. If not I wait patiently. In this way I am precisely as disappointed as going to the beach with a metal detector and not finding the gold chalice that...

Got it - and agreed. Most frustrating for short term traders. Can't argue with that. The only way to be certain at all times that Musk is working for you and never against you is to invest alongside him in shares to the fruition of his plans.

No idea what to say. For anyone who missed it here I called off the thesis for the super obvious DTU short squeeze play. Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 I have absolutely no idea how it is possible for anybody to be in that trade. How many times I said Patience, Patience, Patience...

What you assume is a personal matter. What will happen with Tesla is that in the 2020 time frame and onwards Tesla will most likely be the most profitable company on the planet in terms of total volume of profits. Possibly a record holder in percentage terms too. Definitely well over 100% annual...

+10000 This is the most sensible and well written de-risking strategy post I have ever seen. For anyone frustrated or fearful about TSLA >SHORT TERM STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS< Just pick a LONGER TIMESCALE and be happy. Just forget about the naysayers seeking to manipulate short term price...

Sorry to disappoint - Me, delusional? Seriously where have you been? Here I called the stock to perfection, rain or shine, actionably, in advance, all year long to date and for exactly the right reasons. Wrong target for overtures of incredulity.

Not out of the question. Google is already in SpaceX and Solar City. Almost strange that they are not in Tesla too. Maybe Google's autonomy project is seen as conflict of interest like an iPhone Android thing.

It is important for the investing case. Your insistence upon reasoning by analogy as a counterargument is indeed unhelpful, not just to your understanding but to others reading it. By the exactly same illogic you have presented here, the way cars are always made is by large companies...

True. Yet is supposed to be a hedge against an assumption of oil demand eventually dwindling. Not sure if it's managers would be so sanguine if Statioil was threatened with a near total write-off of the value of Noway's oil reserves due to cascade disruption of oil based transportation. What...

Please. The whole point is to link the value of the work to the value of Tesla and to set it on the non-GAAP non-Cash side of the equation. The secondary benefit is to addict the best workers to working for Tesla rather than just for cash from whatever source. Elon knows the value of a low...

Bond raise, not equities, and there is no need for them to approach potential competitors. Plenty of pure investment capital out there.

Please stop arguing. Tesla is not a heavy mature industry and I am not talking about Tesla handing options to companies - least of all ones that can be described and heavy mature industries! I am talking about a pass through equity-backed options bonus plan for the teams of people that Musk is...

You are merely thinking by analogy. Obviously they would need the cooperation of the supplier. Experience. For example when I designed the live launch of the Compaq Presario Home PC, what I did for them was to built a road-show that toured major shopping malls with a giant movie-prop scale...

Hello and welcome. Anyone interested in knowing what to do next? Answer: On the assumption that a raise is imminent. Probably should buy alongside that raise whenever that is at whatever price assuming no unforeseen thing makes it an ATH. At this rate it would coincide with a local bottom...

You make a fair point as a generality. Yet this is the short term TSLA price movements thread. Much more specific context (TSLA). TSLA options on Model 3 ramp are not a generality. Take this option at $180-200. Don't screw up your bit of the M3 ramp. You just won the difference between...

From what you say about industry fashion and trends then I think one can practically guarantee Musk will do this. No matter. The idiot John Pettersen has just chimed in with a hit piece on Seeking Alpha! It does not matter what it says. There is no such thing as better buying signal than...

Not really the right way to look at this. ABL revolver primarily keeps overseas deliveries effectively cash flow positive like US deliveries. Just bridge financing shipping delays. As Musk said you can basically look at the bit of interest paid for goods in transit as a tiny addition to COGS...

Ok but a couple of things here - thank you but your answer didn't address the actual question. Which is to effectively bonus third party staff and managers that work on a Tesla project at a supplier - not the legal entity of the supplier company. All incentives are aligned here even though...

Like I said. Not an invitation for you to misunderstand on principle and you are just distructively guessing which is not even constructive. Where is @esk8mw that's the guy I want to hear from on this.

The first point is negotiable, the last point you misunderstood. I think it highly probable and reasonable to deduce that Musk is incentivizing supply side staff and managers directly with TSLA options - or that this is the equity component of the plan. For this to be at its most effective the...

Not the suppliers. The actual teams of people working on Tesla's project at supplier locations. As stated on EC - Musk is meeting them personally. What I have said makes perfect sense. If you can't understand this please don't haze those that can - and would benefit from understandjng this...

It is quite common in automotive for the customer to pay for supplier side tooling. Apart from anything else, this is the one way to guarantee the supplier does not use your tools to supply your competitor - or else. It may not be necessary for Tesla to literally cash flow much or even any of...

Thesis update Look. I am sorry that I am very rude and insensitive, and goodness knows nobody likes a know it all. Yet the fact remains that I continue to call this stock on-point without fail where making money or not losing money by being right with clarity in advance can perhaps stand...

Not sure sovereign funds controlled by governments with nationalized oil industries are philosophically ideal major shareholders.

Oh no, they have left EM style. Not only that Elon is dead excited about whoever it is that has been hired to replace them. EM sets goals, you don't hit the goals or come up with reasons why it's impossible, EM does your job for you until the goal Elon set is reached. Then you and Elon train...

This is no problem to explain. Simple explanation is that an EV assembly line can be much shorter and potentially much faster. Delete exhaust system installation step, delete large radiator installation step, delete fuel tank installation step etc. etc. Combine this with the fact that they have...

No need to make it a "my particular" I can assure you it was perfectly objective. FYI they did a guidance 2-step in 2013 that killed the shorts and set up TSLA as frightening stock to short. Like great news, great news, funding round, would have been a huge hole that same quarter - but now there...

Neither can I. All is well in the world.

Basically what I expect to happen now (off the cuff) is that they will raise whatever they need probably for the most part if not exclusively in convertible bonds even if the SP is under the $242 mark at the time. Everyone sensible will have to agree that the entire Tesla business plan is...

I am definitely impressed with their focus on running a tight ship. Wheeler and Elon seems to be doing a great job. Nevertheless they are on a hiring and spending spree from June - which is also terrific - but pretty much replaces Q4 guidance except where reaffirmed. I need to stop this. It is...

I think you are mixing up two separate concepts here. Thinking this through what I think I can see here is that Elon has identified a faster path to bringing on the Model 3 and hence a larger and sooner eventual win. However make no mistake, he has done that by trading the short term for the...

Stop it. I know you're excited but you also need to sit down and think this through carefully. Q1 letter wipes out FCF positive Q3 and Q4, Q3 Non-GAAP, and Q4 non-GAAP and GAAP Profit guidance. The revenue line on the DCF goes up with upgraded 2018-2020 guidance, but so does the capital hurdle...

IMPORTANT For anyone following the Julian Cox DTU thesis here on TMC. I have now had a chance to look at this carefully and I believe it is correct to say that the entire DTU thesis underpinning from here on out is a scrubbed launch. That does not mean I was wrong or that that any...

Energy density increasing over time is a given (the optimum energy storage weight in a car is Zero or as close to Zero as is practical to achieve. More Energy density is good - all other things being at least equal and ideally improved in parallel). Which means the energy in a pack divided by...

You ask a very good question. I need to think about that extremely carefully (and I am but there is no quick answer). I said it would be an error to pull the trigger on this guidance upgrade in advance of having all the ammo in the chamber - like the full sweep with a cash flow positive &...

It is performing EXACTLY as I predicted which was flat to down. What is your point? I appreciate it would be much more likeable to be totally wrong. What's a guy to do? Hug me:(

Apologies. Carry on. TSLA Trading basically flat !!!! YEAHHHHHH !!!!! BOOOM!

Sorry but just as a rather boring matter of fact. Need point out that currently after hours the SP is down $2.79 on today's $230.29 open.