It depends if the 20 day holds. *normal* stocks, even great ones experience occasional profit taking and retrace support levels. The 20 day MA has been historically solid for TSLA, literally the only time in its post-30's run the 20 day wasn't support was November. I agree if the 20 day doesn't hold we are in for.... something else. The overall market rolling over isn't helping either.
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It depends if the 20 day holds. *normal* stocks, even great ones experience occasional profit taking and retrace support levels. The 20 day MA has been historically solid for TSLA, literally the only time in its post-30's run the 20 day wasn't support was November. I agree if the 20 day doesn't hold we are in for.... something else. The overall market rolling over isn't helping either.
I'm going to go out on a rather small limb here, and suggest that neither the Bloomberg article NOR Mr Musk is correct wrt the graphite brouhaha.
My mining background does not include graphite/plumbago specifically, but I know something about the material generally.
China does produce a goodly amount of the world's graphite. Of the three types of primary sources, almost all Chinese graphite occurs as a difficult-to-work fine-grained (powdery) substance and, indeed, it is easy to envision its processing as being conducive to air pollution (as an aside, probably less than an asterisk in China's air pollution problems, but that's not the issue here).
Other sources of graphite - Brazilian, for example - mine occurrences of lump or flake graphite; the processing of which is a far, far less dusty process than working the powdered form. In the United States and in Japan, almost all graphite is formed from coke, a waste product from a varieties of smelting activities. So if Mr Musk is correct in citing Japan as its graphite source, it's very likely not to have been mined, but is synthetic graphite.
Now, China does produce most of the world's graphite - about two-thirds, or about ten times what the US now manufactures. Not all that graphite goes into your "lead" pencil - most assuredly, some goes into batteries. It's not a stretch to conjecture that if a battery is made in China, it's using Chinese graphite. But if the battery is Japanese - synthetic graphite is a likely component (thus my suggestion that Mr Musk may be wrong).
Lastly, and again as an aside, effectively all graphite began its cycle in the same way oil and coal did - as organic carbon (those famous "dinosaurs", donchaknow?). Coal, subjected to intense pressures and temperatures, has its carbon reduced to graphite. If there were some way for a coal bed to be subducted to ridiculous depths in the earth - very unlikely - then not graphite, but diamond, might be the result. But now I really digress.
On edit: It is difficult - a euphemism for "impossible" - for any even moderately complex manufacturing process to ensure unequivocally that every last one of its materials, labor, and capital inputs are "green"/"socially acceptable"/"good". It doesn't take but a moment's thought to realize that your criteria differ from my criteria and are antithetical to the criteria of that guy over there. HOWEVER, one can set one's own criteria and attempt to meet them. The issue on the table here suggests that TMInc. may wish to ensure that the graphite used to create the anodes in its battery Gigafactory be definitively sourced from synthetic graphite (and, for chauvinistic sentiments, US or possibly Japanese-derived syn-graphite...but I'm not going to go there any more than that one line).
Thank you for above note. Good info to keep in mind.
I finally have a chance to do some analysis and post a chart so here's my latest contribution.
TSLA appears to be teetering on whether or not it should stay in the current channel or start heading below while the 20-day MA was broken. If TSLA does head lower, the bottom end of the next channel looks like the upper 210s to low 220s. In my opinion, this is the absolute worse case scenario at best barring any legitimate negative news about Tesla.
The good in all of this is the fact that TSLA has completely moved to oversold and the volume has not supported this drastic of a price drop. With TSLA being this oversold and at the support end of the channel, I can see a relief rally boosting the price back above the 240s.
As far as today goes, I'm just hoping that TSLA can finish above 232.50.
TSLA appears to be teetering on whether or not it should stay in the current channel or start heading below while the 20-day MA was broken. If TSLA does head lower, the bottom end of the next channel looks like the upper 210s to low 220s. In my opinion, this is the absolute worse case scenario at best barring any legitimate negative news about Tesla.
The good in all of this is the fact that TSLA has completely moved to oversold and the volume has not supported this drastic of a price drop. With TSLA being this oversold and at the support end of the channel, I can see a relief rally boosting the price back above the 240s.
As far as today goes, I'm just hoping that TSLA can finish above 232.50.
SA pushing out story that CNN reporting lithium batteries in cargo hold having something to do with mission plane...
There is no depths to which the shorts won't sink, it appears.
exactly what does that have to do withTesla Motors?
Missing Malaysian plane: Could it have landed? - CNN.com
There is no depths to which the shorts won't sink, it appears.
exactly what does that have to do withTesla Motors?
Missing Malaysian plane: Could it have landed? - CNN.com
Elon tweeted that he is working on an environmental impact blog this weekend to address "BS like Bloomberg graphite story... beyond ridiculous"
Elon Musk (elonmusk) on Twitter
@Audobon, thanks for all the background.
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Elon's been busy... blog re NJ events
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/people-new-jersey
Elon Musk (elonmusk) on Twitter
@Audobon, thanks for all the background.
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Elon's been busy... blog re NJ events
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/people-new-jersey
Moderators, please move this to a right place.
NJ Poll whether to allow tesla to sell directly to customers.
Poll: Should companies like Tesla be allowed to sell electric cars directly to customers NJ? | NJ.com
NJ Poll whether to allow tesla to sell directly to customers.
Poll: Should companies like Tesla be allowed to sell electric cars directly to customers NJ? | NJ.com
Interesting read from noted VC, Fred Wilson, about impact of low interest rates on valuations of high-growth companies.
The Bubble Question – AVC
The Bubble Question – AVC
Hey Dave,
Great post but I'm afraid it'll probably get lost in this thread. Think it would be a good idea to have a "macro / general market" type thread for this sort of information / discussion, as related tangentially to TSLA price movements.
wishing_for_S
Member
Great article! This brings to mind a question I have right now: How to safely invest profits from sale of Tesla shares. Things aren't looking to great in the bond market and the stock market is potentially headed for a correction. Any thoughts on somewhat conservative investment options?
This post could go in the social chat thread if that is more appropriate.
I don't think people yet grasp the Gigafactory and how much of an advantage it will give Tesla. I have not heard many people talk about what it does to margins on the Model S if you reduce its battery cost by 30 percent.
I am hoping for more details to emerge when they pick the site for factory, Break ground, Etc.
We are still waiting for the conference call for the Factory correct?
I don't think there's going to be one. Maybe an announcement after the final site is determined.
The factory is a big deal, but it was also part of some of the analyst upgrades and it's value is 3 years in the future so I wouldn't expect much stock movement from it soon.
Actually Tesla investor relations confirmed that there wasn't going to be a gigafactory conference call and that they did the blog post and pdf instead.
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