Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[Discoducky]

I do see where Realist is coming from on the diesel challenge for Model S in Germany, however, the economics, over time and mileage, favor the electric Model S. Of course this assumes the Model S performs over the course of it's warranty, but the German's will be the judge of that with their wallets.

The point about needing to stop and charge is a real and does worry me as it might be a big enough detractor for Germans, but that remains to be seen. Will be anxious to watch the monthly sales numbers for Germany.

 

[perdru]

qwk wrote ; " Peak torque or hp numbers don't mean much(just marketing). It's the area under the curve that matters. Guess which car wins that? "

I reckon Realist is referring to an 310 hp / 650 Nm Audi A6 with a top speed of 157 mph easily running at 140 mph continuously with a 500 miles range at that speed - an impossible task for any electric car.
Unlike the Tesla Model S though, the Audi needs a five-minute break for fuel every 2.5 hours

 

[qwk]

qwk wrote ; " Peak torque or hp numbers don't mean much(just marketing). It's the area under the curve that matters. Guess which car wins that? "

I reckon Realist is referring to an 310 hp / 650 Nm Audi A6 with a top speed of 157 mph easily running at 140 mph continuously with a 500 miles range at that speed - an impossible task for any electric car.
Unlike the Tesla Model S though, the Audi needs a five-minute break for fuel every 2.5 hours

Nobody is going to be driving 500 miles at 140mph anywhere on this planet. These unrealistic scenarios are worthless.

 

[perdru]

qwk wrote :
" Nobody is going to be driving 500 miles at 140mph anywhere on this planet. These unrealistic scenarios are worthless."

In order to understand Realist I think you will have to reconsider your perception of unRealistic scenarioes

 

[chickensevil]

Nobody is going to be driving 500 miles at 140mph anywhere on this planet. These unrealistic scenarios are worthless.

Being not from Germany (nor ever been there) what is the longest stretch of the autobahn where one COULD reasonably go 140? 100 miles? 200 miles? Because I think that expectation would be a more realistic expectation to eliminate "range anxiety" for these guys.

- - - Updated - - -

Actually I take it back. If everything I am reading about their traffic there, and where speeds are enforced and not enforced, one could reasonably drive from (for example) Hamburg to Munich (498 miles) going 140 *most* of the way. So it is not unrealistic to assume that one would want the option to go that fast for 500 miles. I mean the difference between 140 vs 60/70 over that distance is a double in travel time... from around 3 hours to 6+. That is not inconsiderable. But then you have to ask yourself, how often do you need to travel that far? Would it possibly just be better to fly or take a train? For the record as of 2012 they have ~12,000 km of "autobahn".

 

[Robert.Boston]

If Germany is going to meet its EU-mandated carbon goals, it will need to enforce reasonable speed limits on the autobahn. The CO2/km rate is unacceptable at 200kph.

 

[VolkerP]

If Germany is going to meet its EU-mandated carbon goals, it will need to enforce reasonable speed limits on the autobahn. The CO2/km rate is unacceptable at 200kph.

Autobahn sections without speed limit were sold to the public as "giving our car industry an edge over the competition." Just weird, but any German government trying to appeal that will have a hard time.
OTOH Tesla sales numbers would skyrocket in Germany if a speed limit of 120kph were imposed on ICE only :love:

 

[chickensevil]

Autobahn sections without speed limit were sold to the public as "giving our car industry an edge over the competition." Just weird, but any German government trying to appeal that will have a hard time.
OTOH Tesla sales numbers would skyrocket in Germany if a speed limit of 120kph were imposed on ICE only :love:

I dunno, Germany is back-asswards given their removal of Nuclear power, switching to like full coal, and then leasing from France, which is almost all nuclear... they have no clue how to really be "green" and it is funny. (Not that I am pro-green, I am pro-sustainment... coal is not really sustainable for much longer...)

 

[NigelM]

If everything I am reading about their traffic there, and where speeds are enforced and not enforced, one could reasonably drive from (for example) Hamburg to Munich (498 miles) going 140 *most* of the way. So it is not unrealistic to assume that one would want the option to go that fast for 500 miles. I mean the difference between 140 vs 60/70 over that distance is a double in travel time... from around 3 hours to 6+. That is not inconsiderable. But then you have to ask yourself, how often do you need to travel that far? Would it possibly just be better to fly or take a train?

This somewhat reflects what I'd call the German Autobahn myth. Between Hamburg and Munich there are some not inconsiderable stretches which do have speed limits of 130kph (80mph) so that's the first issue (Germany has an abundance of Blitzgeräte or standalone traffic cameras to enforce speed limits); in addition, many Autobahns are still two lane and the volume of traffic makes it almost impossible to maintain speeds above above ~160kph (100mph) so this becomes the second issue; finally, traffic volume has gotten much worse since the expansion of the European Union eastwards as Germany has become a major thoroughfare for goods moving by road in both directions, overtaking long lines of trucks with reduced distance visibility tends to slow traffic.

If I was driving from Munich to Hamburg in the fastest ICE I'd still plan for 6 hours at least....truth be told, I wouldn't drive anyway because there's like 20 direct flights per day with a flight time of 80mins and costs generally under $200 if you avoid the peak business flights. If saving time means that much to you, you fly, you don't drive.

(I lived in Germany for many years, my wife is French/German and we have relatives and friends who live in Germany)

 

[deonb]

I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.

You cannot do this in an electric car.

Yes you can. You just need battery swapping instead of charging.

Tesla will have an autobahn package for the German market. It would make sense as part of that package to include "free" battery swapping (in the same way that we have "free" Supercharging).

 

[30seconds]

I don't think it is very realistic for Tesla to make major changes in their entire product line for Germany when they are and will be supply constrained for the rest of the world for years to come. The more logical option is to do what they have done, i.e., limited high speed package, and let anyone who needs to drive 140mph for 500miles without any breaks to the Germany companies. Niche marketing moves in two directions - that is sometimes you position yourself as the best alternative in a given niche and charge a premium and sometimes you take the general market and position your competitors in a niche (think people who need a keyboard on their smartphone).

Maybe realist can let us know how he plans to drive his i3 on the autobahn.

 

[chickensevil]

This somewhat reflects what I'd call the German Autobahn myth. Between Hamburg and Munich there are some not inconsiderable stretches which do have speed limits of 130kph (80mph) so that's the first issue (Germany has an abundance of Blitzgeräte or standalone traffic cameras to enforce speed limits); in addition, many Autobahns are still two lane and the volume of traffic makes it almost impossible to maintain speeds above above ~160kph (100mph) so this becomes the second issue; finally, traffic volume has gotten much worse since the expansion of the European Union eastwards as Germany has become a major thoroughfare for goods moving by road in both directions, overtaking long lines of trucks with reduced distance visibility tends to slow traffic.

If I was driving from Munich to Hamburg in the fastest ICE I'd still plan for 6 hours at least....truth be told, I wouldn't drive anyway because there's like 20 direct flights per day with a flight time of 80mins and costs generally under $200 if you avoid the peak business flights. If saving time means that much to you, you fly, you don't drive.

(I lived in Germany for many years, my wife is French/German and we have relatives and friends who live in Germany)

Well then that gives even more credence to what I said when I suggested a flight haha. This is why I was clear how much experience I had with their roads so someone like you could correct me. I mean if they get a battery that can handle that we were basically get a battery that NOONE would be able to complain about range anxiety. So while it might be "niche" I think it is worth getting somewhere close to that level.

 

[perdru]

I don't think it is very realistic for Tesla to make major changes in their entire product line for Germany when they are and will be supply constrained for the rest of the world for years to come. The more logical option is to do what they have done, i.e., limited high speed package, and let anyone who needs to drive 140mph for 500miles without any breaks to the Germany companies. Niche marketing moves in two directions - that is sometimes you position yourself as the best alternative in a given niche and charge a premium and sometimes you take the general market and position your competitors in a niche (think people who need a keyboard on their smartphone).

Maybe realist can let us know how he plans to drive his i3 on the autobahn.

I hope and expect that Tesla will sell a lot of cars in Germany.
Many Germans share American Tesla owners´ wish for a cleaner environment -
Tesla´s determination to make Germany their second largest market must be based on a thorough market research combined with a positive trend regarding Model S orders .

 

[Discoducky]

It would seem that Germany is going to be a battleground for Tesla as BMW, with several others, are entrenched and make excellent ICE cars. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_cars#Current_major_manufacturers

In looking for monthly sales data for Germany I found this article which notes a PDF but there is no link: http://europe.autonews.com/article/...ise-in-germany-france-and-spain#axzz2r4BbWs4B

Anyone have reliable monthly sales data for Germany by automaker?

 

[deonb]

I hope and expect that Tesla will sell a lot of cars in Germany.
Many Germans share American Tesla owners´ wish for a cleaner environment -
Tesla´s determination to make Germany their second largest market must be based on a thorough market research combined with a positive trend regarding Model S orders .

Tesla also needs to establish itself as a common high-end brand in Germany with a high-end no-compromises offering.

Otherwise when it eventually brings out cheaper models, it will be seen as the "Kia" of the market. No matter what Kia bring out, it will forever be seen as a low-end compromise vehicle.

I think Tesla has succeeded with this branding in the U.S, and now it's just a messaging and execution thing. However, in Germany the vehicle may get a bit more widely regarded in the same way we look at a Leaf.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It would seem that Germany is going to be a battleground for Tesla as BMW, with several others, are entrenched and make excellent ICE cars. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_cars#Current_major_manufacturers

In looking for monthly sales data for Germany I found this article which notes a PDF but there is no link: http://europe.autonews.com/article/...ise-in-germany-france-and-spain#axzz2r4BbWs4B

Anyone have reliable monthly sales data for Germany by automaker?

I have to say that I think that Matt Gasnier's Best Selling Cars blog is great. It has numbers from 177 countries, including Germany.

Best Selling Cars Germany

Sales are dominated by the domestics (and outside manufacturers automakers owned by the domestics).

 

[Robert.Boston]

Tesla also needs to establish itself as a common high-end brand in Germany with a high-end no-compromises offering.

Otherwise when it eventually brings out cheaper models, it will be seen as the "Kia" of the market. No matter what Kia bring out, it will forever be seen as a low-end compromise vehicle.

Tesla's idea of "cheaper" is something that competes directly with the BMW 3-series, nothing down-market from there. The 3-series certainly hasn't tarnished BMW's image.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.

You cannot do this in an electric car.

To commute 650km each way by automobile is a very unusual situation, even in the U.S., where highways run through vast areas of uninhabited wilderness. Tesla is not building cars that cover extreme situations. The Model S is designed to accommodate the needs of most people (not all) without compromise.

 

[surfside]

Tesla will have an autobahn package for the German market. It would make sense as part of that package to include "free" battery swapping (in the same way that we have "free" Supercharging).

the autobahn issue (requirement to recharge EVs frequently given the high speeds driven) has seemed like a very real issue to me (at the very least with respect to germans' perception of the attractiveness of tesla specifically and electrical cars in general). i've had a hard time wrapping my head around how tesla can address this issue (which i think will be key for success in the german market), but your reading your post was like having a lightbulb go off -- i can't believe i hadn't thought of battery swapping as a solution.

in my opinion the german autobahn would seem to be the perfect location for battery swap stations. i think making the swapping be free as part of an autobahn package makes a lot of sense -- the vague description of how swapping stations would work in the U.S. was somewhat confusing and less than appealing.

i'd be curious to hear from realist and other germans about your perception of battery swapping as a potential solution.

surfside

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Unlike sunny California doing swapping stations at SC locations would be tough. Considering the snow/mud/dirt that is prevalent at least a third of the year the stations really need to be a carwash+battery swap stations.