Washington State Vehicle Sales

[Poiu]

[ Creating one thread for all updates and discussion going forward. ]

January 2024

Summary:

• A strong month for all vehicle sales, with 15% increase in sales compared to December 2023 – 24,691 compared to 21,477 vehicles. An 18% increase compared to Jan’23 (20,984)
• ICE and PHEV increased share, with HEV and BEV slightly losing share - BEVs 17.3%, HEV 15.8%, ICE 62.3%, PHEV 4.6%.
• Toyota sold the most vehicles, but Tesla moved to second place with Subaru dropping to third. The Tesla Model Y was the best-selling vehicle, beating the Toyota Rav4 and Honda CR-V.
• For BEV’s, Tesla share increased from 55% to 57% of all BEV sales.
• One Rolls Royce Spectre was sold in Island county!

Question: What is the market share of ICE, hybrid, and EV vehicles; how has it changed over time?
Answer:

• ICE share has significantly declined since 2017 with hybrids and BEV’s taking share. ICE has declined from 93% of vehicles registered in 2017 to 62% of vehicles registered so far in 2024.
• BEV (all battery) share has increased from 1.5% share in 2017 to 17.3% so far in 2024.
• The share of hybrid (HEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) have increased to 16% and 5% respectively so far in 2024.
• For King County so far in 2024, ICE sales have declined to 54%, with BEV sales increasing to 25%. One quarter of all vehicle sales in King County are BEVs!

Question: So far in 2024, which brands sold the most cars and of what type?
Answer:

• Toyota easily leads the way in 2024 new vehicle sales, selling 18.5% of all vehicles, almost twice the number of vehicles as second place Tesla, with Subaru in a close third. 52% of Toyota sales were hybrids, 4% plug-in hybrids.
• The Tesla Model Y is the top-selling vehicle in the state, leading the Toyota Rav4 and Honda CR-V. The Tesla Model 3 is fifth.
• Given the increasing popularity of BEVs and hybrids, Subaru could be in trouble as they mainly have ICE models, with their only BEV being the uncompetitive rebadged Toyota.

Question: So far in 2024, which brands sold the most BEVs and which models?
Answer:

• Tesla sold 57% of all BEVs, with Rivian (6%) and Ford (5%) next. Tesla’s dominance may have been helped by the point-of-sale tax credit for the Model Y. They sold almost 10x second place Rivian and third place Ford!
• Tesla MY and M3 were best-selling BEVs, with Rivian doing well with R1S in third (given the high price).

Question: What is the sales trend for BEVs for the top selling brands?
Answer:

• We’ve already seen that Tesla dominates BEV sales.
• For everyone other than Tesla:
  • Rivian doing well, especially given high price of the vehicles and only qualifying for the smaller $3,750 tax credit.
  • Surprising to see Hyundai losing sales, given their aggressive discounts and well-reviewed cars.
  • Chevrolet numbers will drop in 2024 as the Bolt has been discontinued and the Blazer EV has had sales postponed.
  • VW numbers should increase as the ID4 has recently qualified for the full $7500 tax credit and is also being heavily discounted (up to an additional $7.5K).
  • Nissan sales are terrible. The Ariya is simply too expensive, with more sales in January of the out-of-date Leaf!

 

[Poiu]

February 2024 Update

Summary

• Total February vehicle sales were 21,253 vehicles (732/day). Down from 24,691 vehicles in January (796/day), but up 17% (18,131) compared to Feb’23.
• 16.4% of sales were BEV’s (down from 17.3% In January), with 64.49% ICE, 15.0% HEV, 4% PHEV. Compared to Feb’23, BEV share was up 3.5% from 12.9%.
• For BEV’s, Tesla share remained steady at 57% of all BEV sales.
• So far in 2024, in King County, almost 25% of vehicle sales were BEVs!
• Toyota sold the most vehicles of all types, but Tesla is still in second place, with Honda moving up to third, and Subaru dropping to fourth (no hybrids and no credible BEV).
• The Tesla Model Y was still the best-selling vehicle model, beating the Toyota Rav4 and Honda CR-V.
• Non-Tesla BEV sales are pathetic! Compared to 1526 Model Y’s, Rivian was the next non-Tesla with 271 sales, then VW ID4 with 112. 13.6 times more Model Y's were sold compared to ID4's! 45 times more Model Y sales compared to Nissan Ariya! Despite all the so-called Tesla beaters becoming available over the last couple of years, legacy automakers just can’t compete yet with Tesla.
• No Cybertruck sales yet!

Question: What is the market share of ICE, hybrid, and EV vehicles; how has it changed over time?
Answer:

• ICE share has significantly declined since 2017 with hybrids and BEV’s taking share. ICE has declined from 93% of vehicles registered in 2017 to 63% of vehicles registered so far in 2024.
• BEV (all battery) share has increased from 1.5% share in 2017 to 16.9% so far in 2024.
• For King County so far in 2024, ICE sales have declined to 55.8%, with BEV sales increasing to 24.6%. Almost one quarter of all vehicle sales in King County are BEVs!

Question: For February 2024, which brands sold the most cars and of what type?
Answer:

• Toyota easily leads the way in 2024 new vehicle sales, selling 18.4% of all vehicles, almost twice the number of vehicles as second place Tesla, with Honda in a close third. 42% of Toyota sales were hybrids, 4% plug-in hybrids.
• Subaru has dropped from third to fourth place, swapping places with Honda (who have hybrids and will soon have a BEV).
• The Tesla Model Y is the top-selling vehicle in the state, leading the Toyota Rav4 and Honda CR-V. The Tesla Model 3 is 12th.

Question: For February 2024, which brands sold the most BEVs and which models?
Answer:

• Tesla sold 57% of all BEVs, with Rivian (10%), and Kia (5%) next.
• Tesla MY and M3 were best-selling BEVs, with Rivian doing well with R1S in third (given the high price).
• Even with huge discounts (up to $15K), the so-called Tesla-killers, like the ID4, Ioniq 5, and EV6 are selling over 10 times fewer vehicles compared to MY.

Question: What is the sales trend for BEVs for the top selling brands?
Answer:

• We’ve already seen that Tesla dominates BEV sales. For everyone other than Tesla:
  • Rivian is doing very well, especially given high price of the vehicles and only qualifying for the smaller $3,750 tax credit.
  • Surprising to see Hyundai losing sales, given their aggressive discounts and well-reviewed cars.
  • Compared to January, BMW, Chevy, Ford, Nissan, and VW sales dropped significantly.
  • VW numbers should increase as the ID4 has recently qualified for the full $7500 tax credit, is being heavily discounted, and the new 2024 model has been well reviewed.
  • Nissan sales are terrible. Let’s see in the 2024 model-year price drop helps

Question: What is the sales trend for Tesla models?
Answer:

• A significant drop for the Model 3, likely due to rollout of the new Highland model and lack of tax credits meaning Model Y is better value (unless leasing).

 

[VandalSibs]

I was one of those Rivian purchases - wife and I got an R1T towards the end of the month. Nice to see that Rivian has a general upward trend in Washington state. Which makes sense to me, as I feel like they are gonna position themselves as the EV version of Subaru in the future (crossing fingers for success), which could be quite successful here in Washington.

 

[PLUS EV]

I was one of those Rivian purchases - wife and I got an R1T towards the end of the month. Nice to see that Rivian has a general upward trend in Washington state. Which makes sense to me, as I feel like they are gonna position themselves as the EV version of Subaru in the future (crossing fingers for success), which could be quite successful here in Washington.

I keep seeing more and more of them in NW Seattle. The R1S used to be rare, but lately it almost seems more common than the truck.

 

[VandalSibs]

I keep seeing more and more of them in NW Seattle. The R1S used to be rare, but lately it almost seems more common than the truck.

It is outselling the truck for sure.... Which is funny to me, as I think the truck looks much better. But people want three rows of seats, I guess...

 

[Poiu]

March 2024 Update

Compared to February, overall vehicle sales increased by almost 2,000 to 23,198. However, BEV sales were down 739 vehicles, a 21% drop from February. BEV's were only 12% of all sales in March; both ICE and HEV increased their share of vehicle sales. Most of the drop in BEV sales was due to Tesla with a 29% drop, with non-Tesla BEV's dropping 11%.

If we look at quarters, the trend for BEV sales is down in 2024, but Q1'24 sales are 28% higher than Q1'23 sales.

In March, Tesla dropped from 2nd to 5th in sales, behind Toyota, Subaru, Honda, and Ford. The Tesla Model Y lost the title of best-selling vehicle to the Toyota Rav4, coming in second, followed by the Honda CRV in third.

For Q1'24, Tesla is 4th in new vehicle sales and the Tesla Model Y is 1st in sales.

For March BEV sales, Tesla is in 1st place and the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are 1st and 2nd place. The Tesla Model 3 numbers have dropped a lot though, only just beating the VW ID4. Tesla sells 51.4% of all BEVs.

For non-Tesla BEV sales, Chevy had a big drop (Bolt discontinued and new Blazer sales only recently restarting); Rivian also had a big drop. Ford and VW sales increased.

For the Tesla Models, both Model 3 and Model Y sales dropped.

I expected to see some Cybertruck sales in March, but none appeared in the data. Will check next month to see if there is a data issue.