Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[Zythryn]

I doubled my position at 234 this morning. Bit early :-D

No intention to set up a stop loss so far.

So Realist, have you closed out your short position, or double down again at $245?

 

[Yggdrasill]

He should wait until 350 before doubling down again.

 

[Realist]

I do not like the price action.

Did cut the short at 247. I can live with that loss.

I still see the company and the product being overvalued but I will not fight the tape.

 

[JRP3]

I still see the company and the product being overvalued but I will not fight the tape.

You saw the same thing when you first shorted years ago. Maybe shorting TSLA is not your strong suit.

 

[Johan]

Well hey, in the short run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. One that at the same time magically transfers money from the shorts in to my wallet.

 

[Zythryn]

You saw the same thing when you first shorted years ago. Maybe shorting TSLA is not your strong suit.

To be fair, there are opportunities, especially in the short run, to make money shorting Tesla.
You just need to time it right and not get greedy.
Heck, if you shorted last year when Tesla was around $280 and closed the position a couple months ago you did great.

Realists problem is he misunderstands the market and the desire among many people to drive electric.
Instead, he interjects his own biased opinion and treats that as reality.

 

[Realist]

I did make much more money on Tesla with my longs. On the short side I was wrong most of time.

Still, time will come.

My decision to cover the short was mainly because of the reservations numbers growing and growing. I couldn't expect demand being so high.

It's not going to change my negative view on the Tesla business Model in the long run however.

 

[Zythryn]

I did make much more money on Tesla with my longs. On the short side I was wrong most of time.

Still, time will come.

My decision to cover the short was mainly because of the reservations numbers growing and growing. I couldn't expect demand being so high.

It's not going to change my negative view on the Tesla business Model in the long run however.

Fair enough.
Even though I disagree with you on many things, especially you expansion of your subjective opinions onto a business as a whole, I appreciate your response.

 

[Sudre]

Realist, I hope you aren't kicking yourself too much... Altho I am sure no one could have known Tesla was going to drop the ball on deliveries.

 

[neroden]

My decision to cover the short was mainly because of the reservations numbers growing and growing. I couldn't expect demand being so high.

It's not going to change my negative view on the Tesla business Model in the long run however.

What's your concept of the long run? Because in the *truly* long run, you're probably right...

In the 5-year time horizon, Tesla's got a spectacular business model which will drive dozens of other auto companies bankrupt. Namely, Tesla delivers snazzy electric cars with a long range and fast charging, and the competitors don't. And Tesla has built the supply chain to make those cars, and the competitors haven't. And Tesla has the expertise and has "debugged" all kinds of little problems in the design of those cars, and the competitors haven't yet.

In the 20-year time horizon, there are various recurring problems with Tesla management which a competitor may take advantage of to destroy them. But none of the competitors can get up to speed in 5 years. So in the 5-year timeframe, Tesla is sitting in the catbird seat.