If what you state is true, the i5 will be a flop. Unchanged Hp figures + bigger heavier car + higher price=major fail. BMW can put as many motors as it wants into the i5, but it won't help. Power is determined by the battery. Unless you use expensive high discharge capacity batteries(which still give you little range), then a small battery won't give you power comparable to Tesla.
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I am with Realist in that I closed out most of my short in the "gulch" period in the high 130s and low 140s. For a profit, which is always good.
one thing about wall street we need to watch. They make money both ways. They don't mind running it up and down through HFT. If you look at the trades real-time, you can watch it happen. When it gets overbought, they can work it back down and gain in each direction along with options trading.
Be careful out there. A market downturn overall can put a hurt on momentum stocks. INtel just took a hit on earnings. Not a lot of good earnings going on and we need to keep an eye on January jobs reports to see if the fluke of Dec jobs isn't a fluke. Could spurn a 5% correction. If TSLA turns around again, i will go long and play covered options off of it. It seems to be what the big boys are doing.
one thing about wall street we need to watch. They make money both ways. They don't mind running it up and down through HFT. If you look at the trades real-time, you can watch it happen. When it gets overbought, they can work it back down and gain in each direction along with options trading.
Be careful out there. A market downturn overall can put a hurt on momentum stocks. INtel just took a hit on earnings. Not a lot of good earnings going on and we need to keep an eye on January jobs reports to see if the fluke of Dec jobs isn't a fluke. Could spurn a 5% correction. If TSLA turns around again, i will go long and play covered options off of it. It seems to be what the big boys are doing.
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I don't think this i5 is going to work in the U.S. market.
A car that looks like a Honda Element and has adequate but not great engine power is going to sell poorly at 50k $US starting price. I've seen Honda mess up time and time again in the U.S. by releasing controversial looking cars with "adequate" performance. The Crosstour and 4th Generation Acura TL come to mind. Ugly and expensive, both models never reached sales expectations.
BMW makes a lot of good looking cars. Why can't they make an EV that looks like a 4-series coupe rather than a Honda Element?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The odd thing is a number of people are saying the Model S can't work in Germany because of the limited top speed, limited range, and lower level of luxury and features compared to other luxury performance cars, yet these same people think the i3 and upcoming i5 will be successful.
purplewalt
Active Member
Agreed.
Makes no sense.
Cars that cost $45K to $50K had better have some driving punch and genuine range, or they will remain on the dealer's lots: unsold, or possibly being sold at a loss.
Once the Germans take their Black, Red and Gold colored lenses off, then they will see the overall qualities of the MS.
SebastianR
Active Member
I agree there is a lot of BS arguments flying around. But then again keep in mind what the Model S competes with in Germany: The E-Class from Mercedes / A6 / 5 Series are typically bought as company cars and come with "unlimited use" fuel, service etc. to the ones who drive them. Not all that many cars in that class in Germany are sold to private individuals. So in that class you have a lot more (reckless?) drivers who don't care about costs and just want top speed, long range and bragging rights. Also a lot of companies have framework agreements with big car dealers / leasing providers. So a friend of mine wanted a Lexus but ended up with an Audi since there was a framework agreement with them. To break into that market will not go "gradually" but in increments if Tesla convinces major companies to include the Model S in their car schemes.
I think that individuals who are in that market are much more likely to switch to a Tesla.
The i3 is not a typical company car so there I see more ability to "gradually ease" into the market.
Having said all this: I notice also that a certain class of executives are now wanting a Tesla. And just like the iPhone found its way into business when it was all Blackberry, my suspicion is that if enough executives want it, the car will find its way into company car world, too.
Both the current i3 and the upcoming i5 are a lot cheaper than the Model S.
In germany the Tesla starts at 68.000 and the P85+ is 91.000 without nav, leather or fog lights. The i3 starts at 35.000 full quipped it’s 45.000. Regarding price the upcoming i5 should be much closer to Tesla’s Model E.
Both the i3 and i8 are sold out for 2014.
Indeed a lot of germans wear lenses in black,red and gold. But you color yourself with stars and stripes. The Ford F150 pick up is one of the most popular vehicles in the US. Here it’s VW Golf. That tells you quite a lot about both markets.
The decision to go long on the stock is simply without any emotion regarding the car. In fact the Model S was one of the most disappointing driving experiences I ever had. Comparing this car with a real performance car is ridiculous. The world above 65mph is very different.
In germany the Tesla starts at 68.000 and the P85+ is 91.000 without nav, leather or fog lights. The i3 starts at 35.000 full quipped it’s 45.000. Regarding price the upcoming i5 should be much closer to Tesla’s Model E.
Both the i3 and i8 are sold out for 2014.
Indeed a lot of germans wear lenses in black,red and gold. But you color yourself with stars and stripes. The Ford F150 pick up is one of the most popular vehicles in the US. Here it’s VW Golf. That tells you quite a lot about both markets.
The decision to go long on the stock is simply without any emotion regarding the car. In fact the Model S was one of the most disappointing driving experiences I ever had. Comparing this car with a real performance car is ridiculous. The world above 65mph is very different.
Realist,
In the US, people think a "rational" decision is to buy a gas-hungry pickup truck (Ford, Chevy, Dodge).
In Germany commuters like the Golf because it serves the purpose and the high fuel prices would make a truck a bad choice.
The USA is living with cheaper gasoline than diesel is part of this.
Also, German prices of fuel: Gasoline 1.562 Euro per litre and Diesel 1.347 Euro per litre
If we had lower diesel prices in the USA, I think small diesel would work. In my area, gasoline is 3.51 USD per gallon and 3.95 Diesel.
I think we are strapped in the USA. If those in charge went and added the type of taxes that exist in Europe, the economy would take a big hit. I also think our "cheap" gasoline is what will keep the EV adoption here slower than we will see in Europe and Asia. Tesla is on the verge of exporting more units produced than kept in-country. Q4 almost looks like a sales ratio of 1 to 1 exported:kept.
In the US, people think a "rational" decision is to buy a gas-hungry pickup truck (Ford, Chevy, Dodge).
In Germany commuters like the Golf because it serves the purpose and the high fuel prices would make a truck a bad choice.
The USA is living with cheaper gasoline than diesel is part of this.
Also, German prices of fuel: Gasoline 1.562 Euro per litre and Diesel 1.347 Euro per litre
If we had lower diesel prices in the USA, I think small diesel would work. In my area, gasoline is 3.51 USD per gallon and 3.95 Diesel.
I think we are strapped in the USA. If those in charge went and added the type of taxes that exist in Europe, the economy would take a big hit. I also think our "cheap" gasoline is what will keep the EV adoption here slower than we will see in Europe and Asia. Tesla is on the verge of exporting more units produced than kept in-country. Q4 almost looks like a sales ratio of 1 to 1 exported:kept.
chickensevil
Active Member
I know the "truck" argument all too well. I have had a talk with a "country boy" who works in my office, who is die hard about his truck.... here... in northern VA... what purpose do you, working a desk job, need a truck? He also has this imprinted picture of what a "hybrid/ev" looks like in his head and I got into a rather heated argument with him over this, until I found out he never even LOOKED at the Tesla before... I was like, well, here take a look. He ended up being like, well that actually looks really good!
Anyway, point is, changing people's ingrained perspectives on what they think they know is a challenge to everyone. I get the feeling that people in Germany are just buying the i3/i8 because it is BMW, talk about some SERIOUS brand loyalty over there. Because you complain about the performance holding back the Tesla... the i8 (costing far more than the Tesla) is not really all that great either. Especially for it's pricepoint, you would be better off getting something that runs on gas all the time for that same price.
I think we will see Tesla work to improve their high end performance (above 65mph/100kph) and that will help with their adoption in Germany, but right now that is really the only country that you are going to go into that would be driving "legally" at above those speeds. So overall it is a small market in the grand scheme of things.
Did your test vehicle include the new autobahn-tuned suspension that is now standard on German shipments?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
must be true;
Know a guy - went 110 through a concrete wall, live oak tree, and a fire- lived through sub 65 re-entry to say the same thing...
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NigelM
Recovering Member
I think you're being a little harsh. I kinda like the new Realist as we have more of a conversation going than it once was.
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It tells you that there is a huge rural market here in the U.S. where the German market is much more urban skewed. The real point relates to the market for an upscale, environmentally-friendly vehicle and what level of performance and perceived quality is acceptable. Clearly in the U.S. Tesla is winning that battle; whether that works the same way for the flag waving fans of Stuttgart and Munich remains to be seen.
Let's see...weekend off-roading, hauling mulch or garden supplies to work on your yard, pulling a boat/jet ski, toting around an ATV or motorcycle, volunteering on weekends for church/community service. Or maybe just because he wants to drive a truck.
Talk about "ingrained attitudes". Agree 100% with the "more rural" USA comment. There may not be much four wheeling in Tyson's Corner, but there's plenty heading a little south off of 95.
Germany is one of the biggest markets for the so called executive saloon. It’s dominated by diesel engines with the engines offering up to 380hp.
You get an 310hp Audi A6 Avant with 650NM of torque (50 more than the P85+) and 1000km range starting at 65.000,-. The drivetrain is not as smooth as the Tesla’s, still it’s very nice to drive and the performance is massive. From an objective point of view it’s very much on par with the Tesla. But of course it is a Diesel and whereas in the US most people still think of Diesel being dirty and unrefined, here in Europe it’s the preferred choice most of the time.
I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.
You cannot do this in an electric car.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Diesel is dirty, but in continental Europe it's always been cheaper than gasoline. I'd argue that almost no-one would choose it for being "clean" but would choose it for being cheap.
True. I once drove my M5 from Munich to Dusseldorf in <4 hours but generally that's just not possible any more because of traffic volume and speed controls. These days I'm older and wiser and I'd happily do that trip with an EV and stop twice along the way, but if I was really under time pressure then I'd fly.
I suspect that neither of our generalizations based on personal experiences are pure representations of the market as a whole.
Peak torque or hp numbers don't mean much(just marketing). It's the area under the curve that matters. Guess which car wins that?
Realist - where did you personally find the performance lacking? Can you be specific? So far, all I can tell is that it's a disappointment to you. But I can't figure out why.
Reason I want to know is that you may have valid points about the performance or cost/performance of the S vs. say, a diesel. But I can't decide that until I understand what your problem with the car is. Second reason is that if your issues are valid, the next interesting question is how much of the rest of the world cares about those same issues the way you do? That will give us a better handle on projected worldwide demand.
Reason I want to know is that you may have valid points about the performance or cost/performance of the S vs. say, a diesel. But I can't decide that until I understand what your problem with the car is. Second reason is that if your issues are valid, the next interesting question is how much of the rest of the world cares about those same issues the way you do? That will give us a better handle on projected worldwide demand.
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