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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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InTheShadows
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I don't see a legit reason for it either. I bought s truck load of $8 leap calls earlier this week.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I bought calls in JASO too, Jan16 LEAPS but higher strike for more delta... I think this drop was utterly exaggerated... herd mentality and all that. I didn't buy a truck load though
I bought calls in JASO too, Jan16 LEAPS but higher strike for more delta... I think this drop was utterly exaggerated... herd mentality and all that. I didn't buy a truck load though
I would be buying more SCTY but I am very cautious because I am very overextended and every down day I am sweating a margin call. The correction in Solars is an overreaction for sure and I think in the 1-2 year time frame all the solars are great buys right now. That being said the only company I have done extensive research in in SCTY.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
InTheShadows
Active Member
I considered playing my 4 strikes out long strangle a few minutes after open this morning but didn't. When csiq leveled off at 29 I bought a few calls thinking the selling pain was over. Guess not. My strangle play would have worked nicely though.
I sold a 2017 put and used the proceeds to do some short term speculation buying calls that expire next week. I don't get the drop at all. If I understand correctly they moved a project from Q4 to Q3 which gives them a big beat this quarter but obviously lower revenue next quarter. The market constantly surprises me. Hopefully it will be a short term bounce otherwise I'll be waiting a while to get my money back.
I think that there was a few reasons for the decline:
1. CSIQ is completely incompetent in managing FOREX. It lost $20m on forex and this is not the first time it lost $20m. It seems to lose huge amounts on forex every other quarter. Currency hedging is not that hard to do, so investors lose confidence in CSIQ when they see that the company has no idea how to hedge this exposure; or maybe they simply just don't care.
2. GM came in at 22.9%, but they are guiding for 17%-19%. Q4 is typically the strongest quarter for solar, so if GM is going down then investors start to worry.
3. Q4 Revenue guidance came in below analyst consensus, and coupled with GM guidance it could be hard for them to beat EPS estimates as well.
I think that CSIQ is a good buying opportunity here and I will be looking to add some next week if weakness continues. I have some CSIQ, but it really isn't my first choice from solars; although it might become my first choice if it dips even lower from here.
Short term stock movements are noise and you really need a long-term investment horizon in order to justify investing in any company, and solars especially. If you like CSIQ 3-5 years from now, then use weakness to buy some and hold. If you are trying to play solars short term for the ER's, then you are gambling and it will be a crap shoot. Sometimes solar stocks go up post ER, and sometimes they crash on ER; there really is no rhyme nor reason why the stocks act the way they do post results...
Kandi had an investor conference today in SF and will be launching a 300 mile + pure EV car next year amd are expected to produce 200K cars around 2016 time frame. Interesting times for the EV, especially in China where they really need it even more. I have a boat load of KNDI shares, hoping that bet will win huge like TSLA in 2014. I have been out from Solars since March but seems like a good time to get back in again.
My Model S is running like a champ!
My Model S is running like a champ!
I've been in and out of KNDI with very small positions a few times over the past year in a trading account of mine. I haven't been impressed with the company during that time. The company doesn't meet my criteria for a major long-term holding since I'm not convinced in the management's ability to execute and I found it difficult to gauge how compelling their cars are.
Good to hear from you Sleepy. I would buy some of your points, if it weren't for the following:
1. They hedged $15.4 million of their $20.9 million currency loss this quarter - they were pretty proud of it and it does show a little additional maturity of their management and Forex understanding.
2. They addressed the drop in GM in Q4 with tariff effect (1-2%), potential Forex (1%) and slightly lower mix of project revenue (4 Canadian projects vs. 5).
3. If you take the midpoint of their guidance (which is conservative) at $950 Million and 18% margins and $80 million of expenses/interest/Forex you get $1.52 in earnings - exactly in line with consensus analyst estimates for Q4. What's more, add $1.52 to the other 3 quarters and you get $4.25 + in earnings for the year, well over analyst estimates of $3.54 and leaving CSIQ with a current P/E of 6.7.
As for other thoughts - they didn't move a project from Q4 to Q3 - it was the opposite. They moved Ray Light out of Q3 and are now not specifying when they will realize revenue from this project and they substituted William Rutley's sale to TransCanada, which had been on their books since 2012. The tactic they used for Q4 2014 and Q1 of 2015 was to give themselves more flexibility with project recognition. They had scheduled 7 Canadian projects to be realized in Q4 in their investor presentation in August, but in their earnings release they bumped Gold Light to Q1 of 2015 and left Liskeard 1 and Ray Light as unspecified for expected COD/Recognition. I think they did this so they could move revenue from 2014 - 2015 if they wanted and smooth out their earnings. Just as Q4 is usually good, Q1 is usually wretched.
There may be a "real" explanation for what happened yesterday, but we haven't heard it yet. Most stocks leap if they beat by pennies and raise overall yearly guidance - CSIQ beat by 50% and $.69, raised their yearly guidance, showed restraint and conservatism, greater management effectiveness, good visibility for future earnings, paid down millions in debt, opened new markets, were upbeat about not only their record earnings and revenue, but the prospects going forward.....and got their asses handed to them.
In this, Sleepy was right about maybe the most important point - short-term options in Solar are asking to have someone else play with your money whenever they want, regardless of results.
So sleepy & bgarret - JKS is my largest solar investment and doing miserably. What is better now, more JKS under 22 or CSIQ at 27? Sunpower is also around 27 right now. Jaso is under 8. Basically all my solars are a bloodbath.
Edit:
Bah - order to buy csiq at 27 executed and still dropping
Edit:
Bah - order to buy csiq at 27 executed and still dropping
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