Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[blakegallagher]

http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Walmart+Selects+SolarCity+%28SCTY%29+and+SunEdison+%28SUNE%29+for+Massive+Solar+Project/10038038.html

Walmart Selected Sun Edison and Solar City for their next large wave of solar installations.

 

[AlMc]

I keep rubbing my eyes: JASO over $9 and my J17 LEAPS are green......can't be!:biggrin: Obviously I am not complaining.

 

[Johan]

I keep rubbing my eyes: JASO over $9 and my J17 LEAPS are green......can't be!:biggrin: Obviously I am not complaining.

9.22 in pre-market. Onwards to old highs! I got some JASO Jan17 $12 LEAPS when we where trading in the $7s. The Bid-Ask spread on those right now is ridiculous (Bid 1.1 Ask 5.0)

 

[FluxCap]

Wow, that's amazing. Haven't looked at my JASO stock in awhile, but that's a nice development. I'm still holding my CSIQ and JASO for the long haul.

 

[ckessel]

JASO didn't respond much differently than the other solars after the ER and I was a bit disappointed. Then again, JASO hasn't moved in relation to the ER with any reliability for some time, so that wasn't much of a surprise.

However, since then JASO been consistently moving up independent of either the market or it's solar brethren, so the ER and the proposed stock buy back seem to be helping.

 

[ckessel]

The oil drop has all but destroyed some of my positions. The Jan2015 $25 SPWR LEAPS I bought over a year ago seemed pretty conservative at the time as they were well ITM. Approaching a total loss and it was about 1/3rd of my portfolio. The other items aren't doing any better, but at least they are 2016/2017 LEAPS.

And damn the timing, double ouch. I'll have to cash some out within 30 days to pay my kid's winter quarter tuition. I suppose, in hindsight, I should have stuck with TSLA and rather than shift anything to solar. Solar's swings make TSLA's movements look calm and predicable.

I'm just not sure what timeline looks good anymore for solar. There's enough oil production out there to depress solar stocks for years. Seems like it'd be reckless for the producers to crank production at such a rate, but given the folks in charge of oil production...

 

[sub]

I'm taking a beating also but I'm only holding CSIQ shares so I can just sit on them. Ouch.

 

[uselesslogin]

I'm just not sure what timeline looks good anymore for solar. There's enough oil production out there to depress solar stocks for years. Seems like it'd be reckless for the producers to crank production at such a rate, but given the folks in charge of oil production...

I really don't understand how cheap oil reduces solar sales or profitability. Does it somehow reduce the cost of coal or other commodities used to produce electricity? Oil is only about 1% of the electricity production mix. To me the biggest problem with the solar industry is that there are too many players in it and it may be a commodity. So competition drives the prices down and it is hard to differentiate. If solars can continue to demonstrate stable earnings they should do well from here especially since the prices are now so low.

 

[ckessel]

I'm taking a beating also but I'm only holding CSIQ shares so I can just sit on them. Ouch.

Yea, that's certainly the advantage of shares. Easier to ride out the storms. I felt, with the SPWR $25 LEAPS, that it seemed pretty conservative given the stock was something like 32-33 at the time.

What this drop has me wondering is how long can things stay down given the deep pockets of the oil producers and the political (non-market) side that influences things?

If solars were depressed for a year or two, how many of the companies we discuss would go bankrupt before solar turned around? If some places feel they could push off buying solar power plants for a couple years, wouldn't that put SPWR in a serious hole since much of their incoming is from building and selling power plants?

Just musing here. Maybe things will recover next week

 

[JRP3]

I really don't understand how cheap oil reduces solar sales or profitability.

Agree, oil and solar don't compete. Lower oil prices should lower transportation and materials cost for solar producers.

 

[FluxCap]

Agree, oil and solar don't compete. Lower oil prices should lower transportation and materials cost for solar producers.

Sadly, we have not yet convinced the market of this. I agree, but the market does not, for now.

 

[ckessel]

Agree, oil and solar don't compete.

That doesn't seem quite true. When I visited Antigua, the entire island's electricity is powered by oil, which astounds me given the wind and sun access they have.

while Antigua is unusual in that it's 100% oil, a number of places generate part of their electricity through oil plants. If oil is cheap, those places have less incentive to switch whatever portion is oil based electricity to something like solar.

 

[Robert.Boston]

That doesn't seem quite true. When I visited Antigua, the entire island's electricity is powered by oil, which astounds me given the wind and sun access they have.

while Antigua is unusual in that it's 100% oil, a number of places generate part of their electricity through oil plants. If oil is cheap, those places have less incentive to switch whatever portion is oil based electricity to something like solar.

Perhaps less ​incentive, but it's still a good buy. Running diesel generators costs about 30 cents/kWh; solar is far, far cheaper.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Perhaps less ​incentive, but it's still a good buy. Running diesel generators costs about 30 cents/kWh; solar is far, far cheaper.

Given that solar + batteries should also be low maintenance, even the shipping overhead shouldn't be able to hold them back, as long as the battery price can be reduced.

I'm sure that solar installers won't have too much difficulty getting employees to volunteer to do the installations.

 

[FANGO]

Can someone explain to me what I'm getting wrong here? SPWR is about 26 bucks right now, yet I just got an order of jan '17 20-30 leap spread for 4.50..and probably could have gotten them a bit cheaper since it executed immediately. Shouldn't those be worth 6 dollars right now, at minimum?

 

[JRP3]

while Antigua is unusual in that it's 100% oil, a number of places generate part of their electricity through oil plants.

I'd say this is a case of the tiny exception proving the rule. I'd guess 99.99% of oil use does not compete with solar.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Can someone explain to me what I'm getting wrong here? SPWR is about 26 bucks right now, yet I just got an order of jan '17 20-30 leap spread for 4.50..and probably could have gotten them a bit cheaper since it executed immediately. Shouldn't those be worth 6 dollars right now, at minimum?

I agree the pricing seems weird, a 33% upside if the SP stays the same and a potential upside of 122% on a significantly smaller rise in the SP compared to what it would take to lose it all, not sure why this is the case.

Why did you chose to go long SPWR? Personally I have no skin in the solar game right now but I am starting to consider it. The company I have found to be the most interesting is FSLR, which nobody here talks about even though they must be the biggest american player. They are the most profitable solar company trading at the cheapest multiple, both on earnings and revenue. They have almost no debt and have shown consistent growth with an expected great next year too as they have prepared for a 46% in increased production if the demand is there, which they expect. The P/E is expected to come in at 17 for this year, and a mere 10 next year according to analyst estimates provided by yahoo finance, why is this company so heavily discounted compared to its peers when every data point shows strength?

 

[ckessel]

I'd say this is a case of the tiny exception proving the rule. I'd guess 99.99% of oil use does not compete with solar.

Most oil isn't used for electricity if that's what you're getting at, but that's not my point.

Oil that is used for electricity production would be direct competition with solar. And, when oil is expensive, probably a prime candidate for replacement by solar based on costs, more so that other electricity generation forms. If oil is cheap, those places aren't as likely to use invest at this moment in a replacement solar plant.

Given the size of the oil produced and the size of the solar market, that'd be a non-trivial amount of solar installations that low oil prices would impact.

 

[JRP3]

Oil that is used for electricity production would be direct competition with solar.

Yes, but as we've both pointed out it's a tiny market, so I'm not understanding how a tiny market can influence the demand for solar. As far as I know the largest volume of solar installations are happening in areas with little to no oil fired generation.
http://pureenergies.com/us/blog/top-10-countries-using-solar-power/

 

[SBenson]

Here is Lyndon Rive's take on Oil Price effect on Solar

What Does $75 Oil Mean to the Solar Industry? : Video - Bloomberg