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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Now its up 2%. Don't look at AH movements, because it is extremely low volume and somebody was just dumb enough to put in a market order; and since AH is very illiquid, he ended up selling very cheaply.
Ya I know after hours if hard to ready i was just confused for two reasons. One is that i actually never see AH numbers on SOL when i just Yahoo real quick. First time i ever had and they were down big % like some news came out that we didnt see.
It was probably more volume then usual AH for them which is why Yahoo posted the AH numbers for the first time i have ever seen.
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Oh and just to let people know. I have been Holding SOL Jan $5 and $7.50 options since $3.80 about a month ago.
It was probably more volume then usual AH for them which is why Yahoo posted the AH numbers for the first time i have ever seen.
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Oh and just to let people know. I have been Holding SOL Jan $5 and $7.50 options since $3.80 about a month ago.
Earnings Preannouncement
I believe that there were 3 companies that preannounced earnings (correct me if I am wrong) TSL, YGE, and SOL. So far all of the solar companies had "bad" results from earnings except for TSL, which had a blowout quarter.
When you preannounce bad earnings you tell the whole truth, when you preannounce good earnings you only tell half the story and keep something good in your pocket for actual earnings. I believe that the odds are tipped slightly in favor of YGE and SOL having very good earnings tomorrow. Only incompetent management would preannounce good earnings and then watch its stock tank after the actual earnings report because they had nothing positive left to say.
Odds are good, so I placed a few bets. I wouldn't be surprised to see solars crash tomorrow post earnings either, but I feel like there is a better chance for these stocks to go up especially after the recent sell-off in solar.
I believe that there were 3 companies that preannounced earnings (correct me if I am wrong) TSL, YGE, and SOL. So far all of the solar companies had "bad" results from earnings except for TSL, which had a blowout quarter.
When you preannounce bad earnings you tell the whole truth, when you preannounce good earnings you only tell half the story and keep something good in your pocket for actual earnings. I believe that the odds are tipped slightly in favor of YGE and SOL having very good earnings tomorrow. Only incompetent management would preannounce good earnings and then watch its stock tank after the actual earnings report because they had nothing positive left to say.
Odds are good, so I placed a few bets. I wouldn't be surprised to see solars crash tomorrow post earnings either, but I feel like there is a better chance for these stocks to go up especially after the recent sell-off in solar.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Sleepy, what kind of J15 LEAPS do you have for SPWR if you don't mind sharing? I bought some $25s today. I was tempted to go higher but figured $25 was a good balance for my objectives.
1. Yahoo never posted AH or pre-market prices for SOL because nobody cares about this stock and there is always 0 volume in AH. If the volume was 1 yahoo would show AH price. go to marketwatch.com for better AH information including volume.
2. Good job of buying these options on a pull back last month. I also bought a lot of shares and some options when SOL was at $3.90. Be ready to sell your $7.50s because it is doubtful that they end up in the money. A strategy that I have now started employing, thanks to ongba, is to buy the $5 calls like you did for $0.60 (I assume that is what you paid) and then after the stock goes up to try to sell the $7.50s for $0.60 to create a delayed construct bull call spread. SOL is a bad example, because it would be easier to do this by shorting the $6 call, but they don't have those available so the $7.50 call may never get up to $0.60 in value. You can then forget about this trade and close it out a day or two before expiry, but since you got your capital back you can now deploy it elsewhere.
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I wanted the $25, but open interest is way too high on those so I opted for $20 (don't really like goin ITM, but wanted to try something different) and some $30. $30 is a little higher than I wanted, but I figured that if SPWR goes up a little I will quickly sell the $35 LEAPS for the same price hopefully in order to create a risk free bull call spread and hope that if finishes ITM.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Hum, that's not something I thought about when I bought them...High open interest=high premiums? Other than that it looked like my thought process was ok, haha.
I don't think it will affect premiums, if anything high OI means better liquidity and that is a positive for you.
I just don't like high OI, because that is what everyone is buying and I like doing what no one else is doing. There is a lot more incentive to manipulate price closer to the high OI strike prices than the low OI strikes. When it comes to LEAPS though this does not matter.
It is just a stupid strategy of mine that probably doesn't make much sense. I am a contrarian.
I just read through SCTY's S-1/A filing from this morning (SolarCity - Registration Statement). If you're a SCTY investor I highly recommend taking some time to read it.
Overall it looks like a standard secondary offering. The highlights:
- 2.8m common shares offered
- 420k additional common shares can be purchased by underwriters within 30 days of the offering
- some new articles have said SCTY plans to offer the shares at $33.69, but the S-1/A says that that number is just an estimate taken from the high/low of stock price on 8/27/13 (high was $34.50, low was 32.88, average is $33.69). I think the actual price is yet to be determined (probably closing stock price day before the offering actually happens).
- SCTY is also offering $100m in convertible notes (with an additional $15m if underwriters exercise option to do so)
- The convertible notes are due in 2018. I couldn't find much more detail on this.
Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive are planning to purchase 560k common shares in this offering (so that leaves 2.24m of the 2.8m shares offered left for others). Basically, they're purchasing 20% of the secondary offering (though not considering the additional 420k shares underwriters can purchase later). I would imagine Elon would be purchasing the vast majority (ie., 90%+) of the 560k shares.
I'm unclear how this will affect the stock price. Shares are diluted somewhat but not majorly, but the company receives much needed capital (roughly $190m-225m) to fund further expansion.
On a side note the prospectus shares a bit more ufo on their Paramount Solar acquisition: (note: this is separate from their secondary offering)
"On August 13, 2013, we entered into an asset purchase agreement with Paramount GR Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, and Paramount Energy Solutions, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, which we collectively refer to as “Paramount Solar,” pursuant to which, on the terms and subject to the satisfaction of the conditions set forth in the purchase agreement, we will acquire specified assets and liabilities of Paramount Solar. Under the terms of the purchase agreement, the consideration will consist of $116.3 million worth of shares of our common stock, subject to certain adjustments, and $3.7 million in cash consideration. The transaction is expected to be completed in September 2013, subject to customary closing conditions. For further details regarding the Paramount Solar transaction, see our Form 8-K filed on August 19, 2013, which is incorporated in this prospectus by reference."
Overall it looks like a standard secondary offering. The highlights:
- 2.8m common shares offered
- 420k additional common shares can be purchased by underwriters within 30 days of the offering
- some new articles have said SCTY plans to offer the shares at $33.69, but the S-1/A says that that number is just an estimate taken from the high/low of stock price on 8/27/13 (high was $34.50, low was 32.88, average is $33.69). I think the actual price is yet to be determined (probably closing stock price day before the offering actually happens).
- SCTY is also offering $100m in convertible notes (with an additional $15m if underwriters exercise option to do so)
- The convertible notes are due in 2018. I couldn't find much more detail on this.
Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive are planning to purchase 560k common shares in this offering (so that leaves 2.24m of the 2.8m shares offered left for others). Basically, they're purchasing 20% of the secondary offering (though not considering the additional 420k shares underwriters can purchase later). I would imagine Elon would be purchasing the vast majority (ie., 90%+) of the 560k shares.
I'm unclear how this will affect the stock price. Shares are diluted somewhat but not majorly, but the company receives much needed capital (roughly $190m-225m) to fund further expansion.
On a side note the prospectus shares a bit more ufo on their Paramount Solar acquisition: (note: this is separate from their secondary offering)
"On August 13, 2013, we entered into an asset purchase agreement with Paramount GR Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, and Paramount Energy Solutions, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, which we collectively refer to as “Paramount Solar,” pursuant to which, on the terms and subject to the satisfaction of the conditions set forth in the purchase agreement, we will acquire specified assets and liabilities of Paramount Solar. Under the terms of the purchase agreement, the consideration will consist of $116.3 million worth of shares of our common stock, subject to certain adjustments, and $3.7 million in cash consideration. The transaction is expected to be completed in September 2013, subject to customary closing conditions. For further details regarding the Paramount Solar transaction, see our Form 8-K filed on August 19, 2013, which is incorporated in this prospectus by reference."
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Ah, ok. I was wondering as I always thought liquidity was good as it lowers the bid/ask spread, which was part of my reason for choosing the $25s. So I guess I did fine, haha. I'm just doing what everyone else is doing!
I'll keep doing what everyone else is doing and you keep doing what everyone else is doing and hopefully we both do fine
I actually like your plan of splitting between 20s and 30s (gives you more options! pardon the pun) but I only bought 4 calls and didn't think it was worth the extra commission and hassle to split them up among multiple strikes.
Norse
Active Member
Thanks for all the info sleepy and DaveT! If you guys with calls are doing some business after ER I would appreciate if you posted or pm your suggestions before opening.
We saw with SPWR that we could cut the losses if we sold on opening.
We saw with SPWR that we could cut the losses if we sold on opening.
Alright guys, I've got my own personal trading strategy for tomorrow morning regarding SOL and YGE. But I don't want to post it here publicly because I don't want to be blamed by those who might follow it and it doesn't work out. But I know there are some that have posted great info on this thread, and I'm willing to share the details with you since you've added value here. So, if you're interested and you've posted helpful info on this specific thread, PM me and I'll share with you my trading strategy for tomorrow.
Gtoffo
Member
Guys, I think most of us here know the risk of the game we are playing. No one would blame you if they followed one of your strategies without doing their own research and lost everything. The point of this thread is not to blindly copy strategies....but to share ideas so that we can all get better together and improve. If we kill this conversation by talking via PM or not posting strategies we will all miss out on a lot of opportunities to learn and make profit.
By the way: I'm currently only following SCTY enough to justify an investment. I'm currently long in shares and have bought some quite risky nov calls (bull call spread). I'm betting we won't break beneath 30$.... if I'm wrong things will get REALLY messy.
I've being looking at the other solar companies with interest over the last few months but I don't know enough about them to invest. I just can't really judge the differences between one panel manufacturer and the other, while SCTY is a whole different story and IMHO is probably the safest bet on solar in the long term (although probably not as potentially explosive as the other stocks in the short term).
Norse
Active Member
Let`s do this SOL. Over 50% of my options portoflio is SOL. And 90% is Solar, dont got YGE tho.
SOL had a great quarter and is looking to open up around $5.00 or +14%. Do you think this is the beginning of a break out?
This article I read from a week ago said that the stock may reach $7 - $8 if it does exactly what it has done over the past week and including today. SOL is discussed on page 2.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12016516/2/5-stocks-under-10-set-to-soar.html
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SOL if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.25 to $4.50 a share and then once it clears its 52-week high at $4.85 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.09 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then SOL will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $7 to $8 a share.
Check, check, and check!
Anyone here believe SOL is heading towards $7-$8?
Norse
Active Member
I have no idea. but I got so many Calls, I would really like to know. Hell, I even have 7.5sep Calls!
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
8/15/2013 5,022,464 2,159,369 2.325894
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/sol/short-interest#ixzz2dSULL88I
I have it between 8-10 by year end which is why i loaded up on SOL $7.50s
obviously that is VERY bullish though.
Also looks like YGE was decent and they are up premarket, but by only 5%.
This could also give the other players (SPWR, CSIQ TSL, ect) a good boos today with two positive earnings calls.
I think after this earnings season you can see which solars are going to survive and thrive and which ones are going to die.
obviously that is VERY bullish though.
Also looks like YGE was decent and they are up premarket, but by only 5%.
This could also give the other players (SPWR, CSIQ TSL, ect) a good boos today with two positive earnings calls.
I think after this earnings season you can see which solars are going to survive and thrive and which ones are going to die.
I have no idea. but I got so many Calls, I would really like to know. Hell, I even have 7.5sep Calls!
If you have a lot of calls then don't be afraid to offload a lot of them today for a big gain. If you can sell enough to cover your initial outlay then you will be able to ride the rest of the calls risk free.
If you only have a very small percentage (less than 2%) of your portfolio in SOL calls then feel free to get greedy and wait a few days, but be prepared to lose everything.
I have 40% of my 401(k) in SOL shares.
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