-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
2014 Q2 Prediction Thread
- Thread starter hershey101
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
It really is unfortunate that TM does not release weekly, or at least monthly, production/delivery numbers. It does lead us all to try to try to piece together the numbers, much like a puzzle, by taking a statement or observation. It has led to all kinds of creative, and sometimes not so good ( ex. VIN counting), results.
If you take a long-term view of the company, even quarterly reporting may be too frequent. I don't want management's time spent fretting about managing weekly numbers.
Sorry, I just do not understand where did you get certainty in my post? To start with, once you said that I state something as an assumption, you can't say the I am "putting degree of certainty in it" ... :smile:
I am sympathetic to your general argument, but it almost seems that you randomly picked my post to express your unrelated hard felt feelings in the comments to it.
The words I used to avoid "degree of certainty":
"It is reasonable to assume..."
"Further assuming..."
"based on above I concluded..."
"This puts total projection..."
"Based on this we can expect..."
"Based on above we can take a swag..."
I'm not at all trying to disagree with your analysis or throw darts at anyone, it's really a few particular phrases like below that I wanted to highlight could be too strong a statement given what we know as actual fact.
"Based on this we can expect about 7,700 deliveries in Q2, or at least 200 cars more than guidance."
"It is more or less a fact. There is no way to TM to beat their 7,000 projection unless they ramped up to 800 carsduring the week of My 9th."
Again, I simply want to point out to more casual followers of Q2 numbers we're all just speculating in this thread. I definitely did not intend to make it feel like I was throwing darts at you and I apologize if I did.. I still love ya man :biggrin:
Benz
Active Member
Gathering from what we know so far : between 2200 and 2500 deliveries in Europe (source: Europe market outlook thread) and around 1500 deliveries in China (source: China market outlook thread). For a total of between 3700 and 4000. To beat 7500 deliveries this quarter Tesla needs between 3500 to 3800 deliveries in the North American market. US deliveries last quarter were 3,316, with orders up 10% q-on-q. If we assume a steady growth of 10% plus orders and deliveries to run more or less in lockstep in a market with short transport times, we can speculate US deliveries for this quarter to be between 3600 and 3700. Canada accounts for another 100 likely deliveries. Based on all this information, it is reasonable to expect Tesla to make their guidance (minimum 2200+1500+3600+100=7400) but not reasonable to expect a significant beat (maximum 2500+1500+3700+100=7800)
The known unknowns
The known unknowns
- Deliveries in smaller European market haven't been reported yet (both pos/neg impact possible)
- Growth assumption in the North American market (both pos/neg impact possible)
- China numbers are based on amount imported not on car registration/delivery (only neg impact possible)
Schonelucht,
Did you count the UK deliveries? There probably has 200 from this thread.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/32187-UK-Deliveries?p=693848&viewfull=1#post693848
Overall, I agree there will not have surprise for significant beat. It looks TM work deligently to fill up the pipes in 1st half of 2014. Hope we can see big delivery jump in 2nd half with significant production ramp up and no production loss in the pipes.
Did you count the UK deliveries? There probably has 200 from this thread.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/32187-UK-Deliveries?p=693848&viewfull=1#post693848
Overall, I agree there will not have surprise for significant beat. It looks TM work deligently to fill up the pipes in 1st half of 2014. Hope we can see big delivery jump in 2nd half with significant production ramp up and no production loss in the pipes.
i think they could even miss on deliveries bit a small amount but stay in line with production...however, I don't think this metric will matter as I have a feeling that the BIG NEWS in the Q2 letter and call will be the new line up and running after the extended shut down in July and how weekly production is now 1000+ per week and guidance for Q3 will be. At 10000-12000 I think. I think that will be the headline of what drives the price from the Q2 earnings letter release
So, what is your investing pohilosophy heading into Q2ER and call? I am considering selling just before ER if there is a 10% run up from here but you thoughts give me reason to at least keep some of my moderate term calls (now Aug/Sept 220s) in play 'after the news'.
It's really hard to miss the guidance though. With TM confirmed close to 700/week in Q1 ER and some sources hinted close to 800/week later on. I think TM is well on track to hit the high end of 8500-9000 Q2 production guidance if it's not beat. Given production met expectation, then there does have very small chance to miss the delivery.
How likely to have 1000(+)/week production after 2nd line is up? TM used to guide 1000/week by end of 2014, so it's almost 5 months ahead of the schedule? I'm not saying it's not possible, if it's the case, then a lot of underlying momentum will be catalyzed in 2nd half.
- - - Updated - - -
My philosophy is the closer to year end the tighter to hold the shares/leaps.
First, macro-economy wise, it's in favor of stock market at least in next 6 months;
Second, too many potential catalysts in 2014 and most of them squeezed into 2nd half now;
1) Gigafactory: ground breaking #1,#2,#3; final site choosen; final agreement with panasonic;
2) Production: guided as 1000/week towards end of the year, what's the reality would be? Is it possible to hit 1000/week in Q3 and 1200/week in Q4 and reach 40K annual production?
3) China/UK/Hongkong markets: a lot potentials haven't been recoginized yet;
4) Model X: prototype release, final pricing/spec. release and big jump of reservation after that;
5) Supercharger network: cover most of the US and major EU countries, China coverage plan released.
How likely to have 1000(+)/week production after 2nd line is up? TM used to guide 1000/week by end of 2014, so it's almost 5 months ahead of the schedule? I'm not saying it's not possible, if it's the case, then a lot of underlying momentum will be catalyzed in 2nd half.
- - - Updated - - -
My philosophy is the closer to year end the tighter to hold the shares/leaps.
First, macro-economy wise, it's in favor of stock market at least in next 6 months;
Second, too many potential catalysts in 2014 and most of them squeezed into 2nd half now;
1) Gigafactory: ground breaking #1,#2,#3; final site choosen; final agreement with panasonic;
2) Production: guided as 1000/week towards end of the year, what's the reality would be? Is it possible to hit 1000/week in Q3 and 1200/week in Q4 and reach 40K annual production?
3) China/UK/Hongkong markets: a lot potentials haven't been recoginized yet;
4) Model X: prototype release, final pricing/spec. release and big jump of reservation after that;
5) Supercharger network: cover most of the US and major EU countries, China coverage plan released.
Last edited:
For me they fall under the Europe numbers and they are part of the reason why I have such a big unknown gap for them. But to be honest 200 is above the maximum range I had estimated for the UK so if that number gets confirmed it increases the chances for a beat.
Edit : Belgium just also came in with numbers near the top end of my range so a beat is now more likely than not for me.
Edit2 : But Germany was very disappointing so we are back to square one
Last edited:
My personal investments have swayed to long term safety...stocks and Jan 2016 LEAPs
however, if I was a gambling man still like i was one year ago I would bet that if the price doesn't appreciate over 250 by the Earnings report then it will after the Earnings report based on the ramp up and guidance I suspect they will speak about.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
With the conference call probably at the beginning of August, I'm hoping that there will be more information on the Gigafactory, expansion of Fremont to 2 production lines, and Model X.
The second half of this year has a lot of potential… hold those shares!
The second half of this year has a lot of potential… hold those shares!
very true...I got very lucky with timing but I still believe in my thesis of TSLA taking over the auto-industry until I personally drive a comparable product. I will hold the shares at least until that thesis is no longer true and I expect them to go up potentially 1000% over the next 5-10 years.
as for 2nd half of the year, I agree with anticitizen in that it could be very good for TSLA shareholders...lots of good news to come and hope we get some of it at this 2nd quarter earnings report
First I’ve seen this “news”; source is Schwab
Second Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 08/06/2014. With 13 analysts covering TSLA, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.06, and the high and low estimates are $0.22 and -$0.04, respectively.
Second Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 08/06/2014. With 13 analysts covering TSLA, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.06, and the high and low estimates are $0.22 and -$0.04, respectively.
Do we know which half in July the fremont factory will be shut down for installing the 2nd production line? It looks to me the factory is still open in the 1st half of July. See posts from delivery thread:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696043&viewfull=1#post696043
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696062&viewfull=1#post696062
Is that possible TM will delay the schedule of 2nd line installation to August or even September?
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696043&viewfull=1#post696043
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696062&viewfull=1#post696062
Is that possible TM will delay the schedule of 2nd line installation to August or even September?
Similar threads
