2014 Q2 Prediction Thread

[AlMc]

Do we know which half in July the fremont factory will be shut down for installing the 2nd production line? It looks to me the factory is still open in the 1st half of July. See posts from delivery thread:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696043&viewfull=1#post696043
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696062&viewfull=1#post696062

Is that possible TM will delay the schedule of 2nd line installation to August or even September?

Maoing. I am not sure. I did read somewhere on TMC that the closing my be near the end of the month. I agree that it could not be closed right now based on future orders being 'in production' right now with delivery dates later in the month.

May be an interesting couple weeks till the Q2ER call.

 

[maoing]

Assume the Q2 ER will be 1st week of August, what if there is no GF ground breaking and no 2nd production line installation by then? I feel it's quite possible even the odd is still low as of now.

Maoing. I am not sure. I did read somewhere on TMC that the closing my be near the end of the month. I agree that it could not be closed right now based on future orders being 'in production' right now with delivery dates later in the month.

May be an interesting couple weeks till the Q2ER call.

 

[uselesslogin]

Do we know which half in July the fremont factory will be shut down for installing the 2nd production line? It looks to me the factory is still open in the 1st half of July. See posts from delivery thread:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696043&viewfull=1#post696043
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-Update?p=696062&viewfull=1#post696062

Is that possible TM will delay the schedule of 2nd line installation to August or even September?

Supposedly someone's DS said July 21st I don't remember what thread I saw that on.

 

[AlMc]

Supposedly someone's DS said July 21st I don't remember what thread I saw that on.

I have been looking for it as well. So far this is all I have found: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ervation-Tally?p=691587&viewfull=1#post691587

 

[maoing]

AIMc, thanks for digging it out. It would be interesting timing, if it takes two weeks from July 21, then the upgrade will be ended on August 1st. Right before the ER week. Need more confirmation from DS thread.

I have been looking for it as well. So far this is all I have found: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ervation-Tally?p=691587&viewfull=1#post691587

 

[AlMc]

Now I am on a mission to try to see if the factory is open/closed for bringing the second line up and running. Got run around a bit (transferred a total of 5 times) with my call to TM headquarters with each person indicating they did not know the answer to this question. Anyone have a good phone number for investor relations or the Freemont factory? neither is published over at the TM forum site.

Thanks Al

 

[uselesslogin]

Now I am on a mission to try to see if the factory is open/closed for bringing the second line up and running. Got run around a bit (transferred a total of 5 times) with my call to TM headquarters with each person indicating they did not know the answer to this question. Anyone have a good phone number for investor relations or the Freemont factory? neither is published over at the TM forum site.

Thanks Al

No contact info but someone in this thread says they were told the end of this week:
Will your Model S come early | Forums | Tesla Motors

 

[AlMc]

No contact info but someone in this thread says they were told the end of this week:
Will your Model S come early | Forums | Tesla Motors

Thanks

 

[maoing]

PM DaveT. He should have the email of investor relationship.

Now I am on a mission to try to see if the factory is open/closed for bringing the second line up and running. Got run around a bit (transferred a total of 5 times) with my call to TM headquarters with each person indicating they did not know the answer to this question. Anyone have a good phone number for investor relations or the Freemont factory? neither is published over at the TM forum site.

Thanks Al

 

[TSLAopt]

Now I am on a mission to try to see if the factory is open/closed for bringing the second line up and running. Got run around a bit (transferred a total of 5 times) with my call to TM headquarters with each person indicating they did not know the answer to this question. Anyone have a good phone number for investor relations or the Freemont factory? neither is published over at the TM forum site.

Thanks Al

Yes, please let us know what you find out

 

[AlMc]

Yes, please let us know what you find out

So, far I have 'heresay' reports that it will shut down next week. Heresay=TMC and TM forum posts. NO official TM word...yet

OK....EDIT: Just got off the phone with a DS that I know: NO specific exact time and date but they have been told expect it to be the last two weeks of July.
:wink:

 

[TSLAopt]

So, far I have 'heresay' reports that it will shut down next week. Heresay=TMC and TM forum posts. NO official TM word...yet

OK....EDIT: Just got off the phone with a DS that I know: NO specific exact time and date but they have been told expect it to be the last two weeks of July.
:wink:

ok, very good info, thanks so much, very good info for me.

 

[maoing]

Thanks. Then the theory of starting from July 21 still stands. Then hopefully we will hear some good news on Q2 ER call.

So, far I have 'heresay' reports that it will shut down next week. Heresay=TMC and TM forum posts. NO official TM word...yet

OK....EDIT: Just got off the phone with a DS that I know: NO specific exact time and date but they have been told expect it to be the last two weeks of July.
:wink:

 

[mostapasta]

Here are the sales I've compiled from various sources (let me know if I'm missing any outliers):

Black are actuals and red are estimates. I gave the US a ~5% increase due to continued increasing demand, but majority of units going to foreign markets. UK I calculated from the MoM increase in UK EV sales and general sentiment from the forums.

Based on ~7600 sales, $110k ASP, 26% GM, and 144 million outstanding shares, I estimate a Non GAAP EPS between $0.03-$0.05 depending on development services from Toyota/Mercedes and any one time impacts.

I don't think these numbers will have too large of an impact because I get the feeling everyone is more concerned with any update on the Gigafactory, Model X, and/or Model 3.

 

[DaveT]

Here are the sales I've compiled from various sources (let me know if I'm missing any outliers):
View attachment 53899

Black are actuals and red are estimates. I gave the US a ~5% increase due to continued increasing demand, but majority of units going to foreign markets. UK I calculated from the MoM increase in UK EV sales and general sentiment from the forums.

Based on ~7600 sales, $110k ASP, 26% GM, and 144 million outstanding shares, I estimate a Non GAAP EPS between $0.03-$0.05 depending on development services from Toyota/Mercedes and any one time impacts.

I don't think these numbers will have too large of an impact because I get the feeling everyone is more concerned with any update on the Gigafactory, Model X, and/or Model 3.

Where are you getting actual China numbers?

 

[32no]

Where are you getting actual China numbers?

He's getting them from user maoing (Post 332) in the china thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28966-China-Market-situation-and-outlook/page34

What I'm interested in is the links to the sources for the Poland, Slovenia, Iceland, and Estonia numbers. Also, mostapasta, there were 5 deliveries to UK in May (not 0).

Kudos to mostapasta for a good chart.

 

[mostapasta]

Thanks 32no! I have only found news outlets for China numbers:
特斯拉Model S上åŠå¹´è¿›å£1545辆-ä¼ä¸šåŠ¨æ€-第一电动网

Poland (Overview): Czerwiec 2014r.. / Rejestracje - samochody osobowe i dostawcze / Rynek motoryzacyjny / Home - Polski Związek Przemysłu Motoryzacyjnego
Poland (Specific Chart): http://carmarket.com.pl/ranking.php
Slovenia: Sekcija za osebna motorna vozila - Statistika
Estonia: Maanteeamet

I found most of these searching with Google translate, as my understanding of languages besides English is very limited.

 

[maoing]

I think my number for China is imported Model S which is more than real delivery. I guess the most wildcard is the US number, in order to meet or exceed the guidance, anything is possible but who knows.

 

[StapleGun]

Here are the sales I've compiled from various sources (let me know if I'm missing any outliers):
View attachment 53899

Thanks for the great chart mostapasta! The US numbers could easily sway this into a miss or beat, but it's still great to have a firm grasp on the EU and China numbers.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Thanks for the great chart mostapasta! The US numbers could easily sway this into a miss or beat, but it's still great to have a firm grasp on the EU and China numbers.

Not a fruitful exercise. Margins, guidance, progress on giga factory, production rate with improved older line and new second line, progress on model x, pricing/options on model x, costs associated with the superchargers/development, order rate china,,,,,,,all these count so much more than they made 100 more or 100 less cars need to look at larger picture