Weird prediction from Bathurst to Auburn

[mathewparet@gm]

I was driving from Bathurst to Auburn and the Tesla projected like so:

Current battery level (around Blue mountains area): 49%
Expected arrival SOC: 49% !!!
Distance to go (at the time of screenshot): 86 KM

However, I reached Auburn with 41%.

Clearly, the estimate seems off. This is the second time this has happened. My assumptions are:

1. Tesla is overestimating since most of the trip is (possibly) downhill.
2. 2 days before I first noticed this issue (a couple of weeks back), I had stopped charging at an NRMA charger (Jindabyne, going to Auburn, hence that too was downhill) at 99% while the status was showing "calibrating", and this caused calibration issues.

Could this be due to a calibration issue or has someone noticed similar behaviour in this route (is it common to have this big a variance)?

How do I fix this? This 9% variance seems quite scary!

 

[The Lorax]

I've had something similar happen a few times after leaving a supercharger. Wonder if it is related to this thread: Mysterious 5% range increase immediately after leaving Supercharger

 

[Blue heaven]

I was driving from Bathurst to Auburn and the Tesla projected like so:

Current battery level (around Blue mountains area): 49%
Expected arrival SOC: 49% !!!
Distance to go (at the time of screenshot): 86 KM

View attachment 962696

However, I reached Auburn with 41%.

Clearly, the estimate seems off. This is the second time this has happened. My assumptions are:

1. Tesla is overestimating since most of the trip is (possibly) downhill.
2. 2 days before I first noticed this issue (a couple of weeks back), I had stopped charging at an NRMA charger (Jindabyne, going to Auburn, hence that too was downhill) at 99% while the status was showing "calibrating", and this caused calibration issues.

Could this be due to a calibration issue or has someone noticed similar behaviour in this route (is it common to have this big a variance)?

How do I fix this? This 9% variance seems quite scary!

A similar issue is mentioned at the 1 minute 30 mark of this AUA episode-

 

[mathewparet@gm]

Thanks @Blue heaven & @The Lorax

I read the thread and watched the part of the video. I have both symptoms. (While reading the "Mysterious 5%..." thread, I remembered that I had seen something similar the first time I noticed the issue. When I left an SC it predicted to reach the destination at x% but then in a few seconds it updated to something x+7%). And from the video, it seems to be a bug. And checking the dates of the video and the date of the other thread, I first noticed this issue around the date the thread was posted. So I am assuming it is a bug introduced in one of the recent software updates.

I hope Tesla knows about this bug and is hopefully working on it.

That reminds me - is there a way for us to send a bug report in similar situations that might help Tesla to investigate and resolve the issue?

 

[cafz]

Bring up the energy chart when it you see this, it makes it obvious how the prediction is derived.

I find that it does seem to overestimate how much you'll get back on downhills a little.

 

[Hairyman]

Noting all the insightful comments, I might add that with care some quite good energy consumption can be managed.

 

[danesuper6]

I've done the Bathurst to Sydney trip a few times and you can get from Bathurst to Penrith using less than 5% total because it's all downhill from Mount Victoria. 0% usage does seem off though, but it may not be a whole lot off.

 

[jamesgo]

The other issue is that is the ambient and battery temp can impact the regen level which can then get reduced.

 

[Quickst]

using less than 5% total

Good info. I wonder what the minimum starting SoC needs to be to arrive with 0%. Because while the total consumption might be 5%, the vehicle will consume more 5% during the trip before allowing for Regen gains.

Do you have the energy profile?

 

[Vostok]

I've done the Bathurst to Sydney trip a few times and you can get from Bathurst to Penrith using less than 5% total because it's all downhill from Mount Victoria.

I’ve driven from Mt Victoria to Lapstone (50 km), and arrived on more charge at the end than I had at the start. Efficiency -6 Wh/km.

 

[danesuper6]

I’ve driven from Mt Victoria to Lapstone (50 km), and arrived on more charge at the end than I had at the start. Efficiency -6 Wh/km.

View attachment 962940

Yeah I usually find that too, that's a great stretch to drive

 

[danesuper6]

The other issue is that is the ambient and battery temp can impact the regen level which can then get reduced.

I've usually topped off at the Bathurst SC so everything is pre-heated

 

[danesuper6]

Good info. I wonder what the minimum starting SoC needs to be to arrive with 0%. Because while the total consumption might be 5%, the vehicle will consume more 5% during the trip before allowing for Regen gains.

Do you have the energy profile?

Unfortunately I don't, it was months ago I last did it and have done a fair few trips since then.