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It's sad to see even DaveT got attacked in this site and considering to quit. If you want to invest TSLA, you'd better to do more of your own research and independent thinking instead of relying on many "polluted" information from TSLA perma-bulls or cheerleaders in this site. This was...

Elon is so convinced that SCTY merger deal will pass, that's very good news for the investors waiting on the sidelines. It would be interesting to see how TSLA continue the downwards trend before the final vote date 11/17, which is still 13 trading days ahead. In between the SCTY ER and US...

TSLA was a momo stock, much more volatile than rest of the market

I have small buy limit set @ 180. Will double load @ 160 and load the truck if we hit 140-150. JMHO.

I'm not interested in Q3 earning at all because everybody knows it's "fake" or "engineered" ER, sorry wall street already threw the pies on the face of Elon Musk. $200 is a fair value for TSLA before SCTY merger, if merger happens, then 10% dilution immediately. After that TSLA might well need...

Can't laugh out more on daily posts about complaining "short attack" or day dreaming "shares recall" theory :p

That's true. Given another 10% dilution immediately after SCTY merger and another potential big equity raise a few months after merger. So even we get back to $140, might be just equivalent to $170-180 back to Jan/Feb.

Exited all my TSLA position @ 205 and 215 after SCTY deal announcement. Still waiting for retesting 140-150 range to get back in. It's sorry to see people lost money in this game, but I truly don't understand why there are so many people cheer on the SCTY merger deal? I guess probably most of...

If TSLA get hammered hard due to "no" vote on SCTY deal, that's perfect buying opportunity before M3 production. First, the confidence crisis on Elon Musk and Tesla management team is short term, it's be easily forgotten; Second, in the long run, TSLA will grow much healthier than merging with...

You can't interpret strength by just one hour, TSLA was weak for the whole month and whole week.

But one side must be wrong though. Keep watching the game :p

So in order to satisfy Elon's ego, it's in the big cost of TSLA shareholders. Sound fair? market will punish that sooner or later.

What you said is good for TSLA only shareholders, but not good for Elon Musk like shareholders who have interests in both companies.

most recent low is 188.55 on 06/27.

Obviously the latter. I see $200 is a fair value for TSLA as of today. Not bargin price though.

If it were 2014/2015 and no SCTY merger proposal, I'll definitely jump in. But now, I'll still remain on the sideline. With so much stock dilution happened or to be happened and sink hole of SCTY financials. I have no ideas where TSLA will be going. I'll raise my bar of safe entry zone between...

True. I suspect the new stock issuing will be below 215 or even 200. It's bad to see the down round capital raise from 252 (2014), 244 (2015), 215 (2016), then next?

Well said Bonaire. Many TMC folks just refused to do such fundamental analysis for their "beloved" stock.

Any negative news today? TA chart look ugly without news. I'm afraid the SP won't stop falling until substantial negative catalysts out. It's not the time to bottom fishing yet IMO.

TSLA buy opportunity has to come with volume panic sales, there was no exception in the past a few years. We are not there yet. If you listen to that guy, please show your buy order :D

Unfortunately it had happened many times in the last a few years. You will be screwed if you drink cool aid from TMC forum. I'm just kidding:p Anyone with naked eye to see the TA charts will find alarming sign for TSLA. 1) SP essentially declining step by step after Q2 ER while the general...

NO, historically RSI < 30 is the safe entry point which almost guarantee you make profit in next a couple of months or so. The scary part of today is big drop without news, you never know sth. bad could have happened.

Not yet. Wait for RSI below 30, which is safer entry point.

drinkofcoolaid;)

Keep blaming shorts!;)

Then in your view, the Q3 delivery could be 2000/week*12(weeks)+2500(boost) = 26500?

Until Tesla release official number, all sources including insideevs are guestimate. But it serves pretty well for early warning sign in Q1/Q2. With no Q3 guidance from Tesla (a BIG warning sign), there is no reason to be too optimistic at this point until we see the hard number.

Thanks. That makes a lot more sense. I too expect model S demand capped around 50K in 2016.

No way. I saw a Chinese article which quotes about 6000 delivery goal for 2016, it's just mild growth.

I'll keep conservative until August number out. My theory is July (5K) + August (5K) + Sept. (8-9K). If August turns out to have much improved EU/NA number, then I'll change my mind. Just keep in mind, Q1/Q2 delivery is way below anybody's guestimate.

Bonaire, is it a typo? This implies the US annual demand only in 7-8K level for model S, can't be that low.

I have similar feeling, Q3 will be the first quarter to show production outspace demand with margin. It used to have too much production noise, which overshadowed demand constraint. My gestimate for Q3 delivery is 18-19K. It'll be the best quarter (beat Q4 17K). After disappointing July number...

Once Tesla Q3 delivery is less than supposed production capability (24K), then the Q4 delivery will be capped in similar level because it's constrained by demand. That being said, if Q3 ends up with ~20K, then the full year number could be well below 80K.

Then how can SCTY merger do anything good for TSLA? Just because TSLA is a larger boat?

Let's say Q3 average production rate 2k/week as conservative, total 12 weeks. Then minimum 24K cars will be produced. Among 2k/week production rate, half shipped to US market which has 2-week delivery time and half shipped to overseas market which has 4-week delivery time. So total needs 6k to...

Sina Visitor System

First Autopilot accident in China. Google translate link Google Translate Original Chinese link: 特斯拉自动驾驶中国首撞！无视障碍物加速_网易科技 My edits for highlights from Google Translate: Fortunately there is no casualty. I watched the video, it's definitely AP bug but Tesla will blame owner anyway.

It's even more fun that no Q3 guidance was given today. I guess market would expect 20K-25K for Q3 delivery. With existing July data, it's going to be very challenging for TM.

I'm pretty sure that's the case as customer deposit question was asked in one the CCs last year, Deepak said not to pay too much attention for the fluctuation as it includes the paid in advance money. I'm tired to dig through all those CC transcripts, but just FYI.

It's not like that. Customer deposit includes the money customer paid in full while waiting for delivery. By end of Q2, there were record 5000 cars in transit, so the customer paid in full money should be no less than Q1. But if you compare the Q1 customer deposit which doesn't include M3...

Theoretically we should see growth in Q3. But so far the July number is very confusing, even considering the lower rate in the first month of a quarter, but we all knew 5K in transit by end of June, so we should expect better July number. It's going to be fun to watch Q3 guidance tomorrow.

Thanks for the information. The number leads to me think it's 2nd QoQ and YoY decline quarter even including X delivery.

If I would be shorts (definitely not), I would keep such information as secrete and then release such information when they try to cover. Btw, it's just my speculation, we shall see Q3 guidance tomorrow.

My elementary school math leads me to make such speculation. Otherwise 5K number doesn't work at all. The most challenging part for 2nd half of 2016 is the demand instead of production, mark my words. My prediction for annual delivery ranked 2nd for 2014, and I predicted TM will miss 2015...

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard Based on insideeves number, it's obvious part of 5K goes to US S delivery. But overall the math for 5K doesn't work. Another explanation is TM shut down the assembly line for 2 weeks in July, so the production loss offsets those 5K number.

1100 for ROW might be too high. I would say it's in the similar range with EU. Note, July number includes more or less 5000 in transit by end of June. So Q3 S delivery could be well below 4000x3=12000. I don't know the X situation. Might be around 80000, so my Q3 delivery prediction is up to...

For US shipment, typically around a week, it doesn't need 5K in transit. Majority of them has to go oversees, but so far available EU delivery number doesn't show July delivery spike.

Tons of on California road.

Will try, but little hope on that. As I stated in my recent posts in China thread, I don't think S/X sales going well in China.

Thanks for the updates. What the heck for those 5000 cars in transit by end of Q2? Looking forward to seeing insideEVs estimates for NA.