EU Market Situation and Outlook

[AustinPowers]

What is the situation with import taxes, and for that matter, VAT, on Teslas sold in Germany?

Don't know about import taxes to be honest, but our VAT rate is 19%. Actually on the lower side when compared to other European countries (France, UK: 20%, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain: 21%, Italy: 22%, Finland: 24%, Norway, Denmark, Sweden: 25%). Switzerland only has 8% VAT, but even so their prices for almost everything are generally much higher than over here. One of the most expensive countries to live in actually.

Good analysis.

I was under the impression Model S was a mass market car and Tesla was already a mass market auto manufacture.

Werrrrry funny

Of course it's not a mass market car, but can you remember the time when Elon though he could sell 10K Model S per year in Germany?

Otoh, if the Model S is such a great car (rhetorical question of course, I know it is), why indeed doesn't it sell better over here? The S class sold almost 900 in June, at least such a number could therefor be attainable. Now this takes me back to what vgrinshpun said. Yes, the Model S is in a different league than an S 300 h for example, but many people over here still prefer that league, unfortunately, especially in that price range.

Not sure I follow this - Model S has no problem maintaining top speed...

Of course not. But as @schonelucht said, even when you travel at realistic Autobahn speeds like around 100mph (which is actually what most people try to maintain, everything above is only possible for relatively short stretches at a time - too many speed limits and construction works otherwise), range drops dramatically on the Model S, not so on an S 300 h (or similar ICE).
Now please don't get me wrong, I would prefer the Model S any time, but we are talking about the majority of people over here who can afford such a car, and they actually prefer maintainable speed (not necessarily top speed, but high speed over longer periods of time) and the "coachwork" you mentioned.

 

[schonelucht]

Norway numbers from MrBacardi : 44 Model S (96 last quarter, 222 last year) and 23 Model X. The official statistics say 66 but they don't split up by model.

Others from their respective statistics offices : Austria, no split by model given : 41 (38 last quarter, 67 last year), Sweden : 57 Model S (52 last quarter, 103 last year), Finland, no split by model given : 11 (1 last quarter, 32 last year)

I think this sample is already large enough to conclude that the extra 3000 cars in the pipeline were not Model S's going to Europe because they'd be delivered by now yet it's clear that the downtrend is continuing. A small turn around is possible near the end of this quarter when Tesla will deliver the first cars with a 60kWh battery in Europe. Although, based on VIN assignment, that kick will be quite modest. Better news is to be expected from the Model X. This month is likely very modest (the Netherlands for example is 2), but this will ramp up much more quickly. Still, I see Tesla only just surpassing its all time high of 5827 European deliveries in one quarter, even with both models. And even that isn't guaranteed at all!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Of course not. But as @schonelucht said, even when you travel at realistic Autobahn speeds like around 100mph (which is actually what most people try to maintain, everything above is only possible for relatively short stretches at a time - too many speed limits and construction works otherwise), range drops dramatically on the Model S, not so on an S 300 h (or similar ICE).
Now please don't get me wrong, I would prefer the Model S any time, but we are talking about the majority of people over here who can afford such a car, and they actually prefer maintainable speed (not necessarily top speed, but high speed over longer periods of time) and the "coachwork" you mentioned.

I bet that the range on Model S and on MB S300 h at 100mph will drop similarly. if anything, the Models S hit will be less at it is more aerodynamic car and at 100mph most of the losses are due to the drag. Quoting from the memory, there is a video around of MS running 120mph for about 25 miles, and getting energy consumption about 1.8 x of rated. so for 90D that would mean a range of about 160 miles at 120mph... I think one can get 200 miles of range in 90D at 100 mph.

EDIT: The video is here. My memory did not quite serve well on this one. The run was 25 miles, but sustained speed was 125 mph, and energy consumption was 840WH/mi. Assuming 80kWh useable energy in 90D yields range of about 95 miles of range. Given that 90D has about 300miles of range at 65mph and 95 miles at 125 mph, I believe that my original wag of 200 miles of range at 100mph still stands.

 

[schonelucht]

I bet that the range on Model S and on MB S300 h at 100mph will drop similarly.

Of course the range drops approximately the same. That's just physics. But when you are doing 4 hours between refills, then 10 minutes getting gas versus 30 minutes supercharging isn't too bad. However at 200km/u, you are refilling every hour and then it makes a big impact on your total journey time.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Of course the range drops approximately the same. That's just physics. But when you are doing 4 hours between refills, then 10 minutes getting gas versus 30 minutes supercharging isn't too bad. However at 200km/u, you are refilling every hour and then it makes a big impact on your total journey time.

I did not travel on autobans, but I am very skeptical that one can run at 100mph for hours... Even if one can, the fatigue at these high sustained speeds for long periods of time would be very pronounced. My point is that this "disadvantage" of EV is more theoretical than practical.

The refill for 90D at 100mph would be at about two hours mark, not 1 hour...

 

[jkk_]

Others from their respective statistics offices : Austria, no split by model given : 41 (38 last quarter, 67 last year), Sweden : 57 Model S (52 last quarter, 103 last year), Finland, no split by model given : 11 (1 last quarter, 32 last year)

As far as I know, no Xs have been yet delivered in Finland (not counting the test drive car).

 

[schonelucht]

The refill for 90D at 100mph would be at about two hours mark, not 1 hour...

In the best of circumstances, consumption at 100mph is 400Wh/km. Take into account brick buffer, maybe a hill here and there, some cold weather, in practical circumstances there is no way you will drive more than 220km at those speeds without recharging. That's less than 90 minutes. A fully fueled MB at those speeds will run for 500km. Or put differently, you will be supercharging at least twice between Berlin and Munich while you will be stopping once for gas. And yes, people do drive those kind of distances at high speed.

 

[vgrinshpun]

In the best of circumstances, consumption at 100mph is 400Wh/km. Take into account brick buffer, maybe a hill here and there, some cold weather, in practical circumstances there is no way you will drive more than 220km at those speeds without recharging. That's less than 90 minutes. A fully fueled MB at those speeds will run for 500km. Or put differently, you will be supercharging at least twice between Berlin and Munich while you will be stopping once for gas. And yes, people do drive those kind of distances at high speed.

The 640 Wh/mile (400Wh/km) at 100 mph is gross overestimation. My three year old P85 consumes about 325Wh/mile at 75mph with some up and downgrades (as I observe every day on my regular commute). The 90D will do markedly better, say around 300Wh/mile.

As seen from the video I posted above consumption at the sustained 125mph was 840Wh/mile. The consumption at the mid-point of 100mph can conservatively be estimated to be significantly less than 300 + 840 / 2 = 570. This proves that 640Wh/mile at 100 mph is way off.

I am going to measure what the consumption in my P85 is at 100 mph... The 90D will do markedly better

 

[maoing]

Thanks for the updates. What the heck for those 5000 cars in transit by end of Q2? Looking forward to seeing insideEVs estimates for NA.

Norway numbers from MrBacardi : 44 Model S (96 last quarter, 222 last year) and 23 Model X. The official statistics say 66 but they don't split up by model.

Others from their respective statistics offices : Austria, no split by model given : 41 (38 last quarter, 67 last year), Sweden : 57 Model S (52 last quarter, 103 last year), Finland, no split by model given : 11 (1 last quarter, 32 last year)

I think this sample is already large enough to conclude that the extra 3000 cars in the pipeline were not Model S's going to Europe because they'd be delivered by now yet it's clear that the downtrend is continuing. A small turn around is possible near the end of this quarter when Tesla will deliver the first cars with a 60kWh battery in Europe. Although, based on VIN assignment, that kick will be quite modest. Better news is to be expected from the Model X. This month is likely very modest (the Netherlands for example is 2), but this will ramp up much more quickly. Still, I see Tesla only just surpassing its all time high of 5827 European deliveries in one quarter, even with both models. And even that isn't guaranteed at all!

 

[schonelucht]

Thanks for the updates. What the heck for those 5000 cars in transit by end of Q2? Looking forward to seeing insideEVs estimates for NA.

Likewise would appreciate any information available on Tesla imports in China and other countries. We really need to understand this number because it will likely make or break Q3.

 

[TMSE]

Likewise would appreciate any information available on Tesla imports in China and other countries. We really need to understand this number because it will likely make or break Q3.

I am not very familiar with EV incentive programs in Europe. Were there any major changes in those since last year potentially driving down sales? Or, is it just a temporary aberration?

One thing I noticed is that China deliveries are sooner than in Europe. MS delivery in China is currently late September, while most Europe delivery is late October. One reason could be that it is a lot cheaper and faster to ship to China, as ships going in that direction are mostly empty and shipping charges are at throwaway prices. Any other reason?

 

[maoing]

Likewise would appreciate any information available on Tesla imports in China and other countries. We really need to understand this number because it will likely make or break Q3.

Will try, but little hope on that. As I stated in my recent posts in China thread, I don't think S/X sales going well in China.

 

[schonelucht]

I am not very familiar with EV incentive programs in Europe. We're there any major changes in those since last year potentially driving down sales? Or, is it just a temporary aberration?

Denmark is the big one where incentives are worse but on the other hand the Netherlands and Belgium are better.

One thing I noticed is that China deliveries are sooner than in Europe. MS delivery in China is currently late September, while most Europe delivery is late October. One reason could be that it is a lot cheaper and faster to ship to China, as ships going in that direction are mostly empty and shipping charges are at throwaway prices. Any other reason?

Really don't know. Maybe Chinese customers are less tolerant of longer lead times and Tesla is trying to prioritise them? Production capacity is/should be well above order rate so we should expect lower wait times across the board anyway over the next few months.

 

[Fallenone]

I am not very familiar with EV incentive programs in Europe. Were there any major changes in those since last year potentially driving down sales? Or, is it just a temporary aberration?

One thing I noticed is that China deliveries are sooner than in Europe. MS delivery in China is currently late September, while most Europe delivery is late October. One reason could be that it is a lot cheaper and faster to ship to China, as ships going in that direction are mostly empty and shipping charges are at throwaway prices. Any other reason?

From what I've heard from a recent (July) Chinese customer, it took about 2 weeks for him from placing an order of Model S to Tesla's completion of building the vehicle. Then it takes about 3 weeks to be shipped, 1-2 weeks to clear custom and delivered. This pretty much matches the delivery estimate on the website. I don't know how long is shipping to Europe but since Fremont is located at one of the largest port on the west coast, I imagine it would take a bit longer time for shipping?

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla delivered 51 cars in the Netherlands for July 2016. I believe this to be 49 Model S (135 last quarter, 115 last year) and 2 model X.

 

[bonaire]

Norway numbers from MrBacardi : 44 Model S (96 last quarter, 222 last year) and 23 Model X. The official statistics say 66 but they don't split up by model.

Others from their respective statistics offices : Austria, no split by model given : 41 (38 last quarter, 67 last year), Sweden : 57 Model S (52 last quarter, 103 last year), Finland, no split by model given : 11 (1 last quarter, 32 last year)

I think this sample is already large enough to conclude that the extra 3000 cars in the pipeline were not Model S's going to Europe because they'd be delivered by now yet it's clear that the downtrend is continuing. A small turn around is possible near the end of this quarter when Tesla will deliver the first cars with a 60kWh battery in Europe. Although, based on VIN assignment, that kick will be quite modest. Better news is to be expected from the Model X. This month is likely very modest (the Netherlands for example is 2), but this will ramp up much more quickly. Still, I see Tesla only just surpassing its all time high of 5827 European deliveries in one quarter, even with both models. And even that isn't guaranteed at all!

The 5000 in transit is, of course, a "Tesla number". It can include:

- Model X customer orders placed ready to deliver during June but needing final adjustments
(my local Tesla store had roughly 19 Model X on July 2nd on the lot)
- Model X Marketing, Inventory and Demo vehicles being spread through the world
- Model S Inventory/Demo replacements with new look across world locations
- any remaining Model S Inventory made with old-look
- Model S Marketing cars of all sorts
- Model S customer orders of all sorts
- Cars out the back door at Fremont in the staging lot are "in-transit". three days of production is 700+ cars alone (June 28-30) if running at 2000/wk and if really working 7-days.

They said "cars in-transit" and not "all are customer orders waiting for final delivery". We cannot assume all were "customer custom orders", of course.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

bonaire: maybe you didn't read the Tesla press release, but it had:

5,150 customer-ordered vehicles were still in transit at the end of the quarter

So those were CUSTOMER ordered vehicles. The gap between produced and delivered and in transit is the inventory cars for marketing etc.

 

[bonaire]

bonaire: maybe you didn't read the Tesla press release, but it had:

So those were CUSTOMER ordered vehicles. The gap between produced and delivered and in transit is the inventory cars for marketing etc.

Ok - got it and will be looking to see how the EU sales numbers play out at end of August. Perhaps the cars in transit ended up in Tilburgh and needed final assembly before final European delivery.

 

[maoing]

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Based on insideeves number, it's obvious part of 5K goes to US S delivery. But overall the math for 5K doesn't work. Another explanation is TM shut down the assembly line for 2 weeks in July, so the production loss offsets those 5K number.

 

[TMSE]

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Based on insideeves number, it's obvious part of 5K goes to US S delivery. But overall the math for 5K doesn't work. Another explanation is TM shut down the assembly line for 2 weeks in July, so the production loss offsets those 5K number.

We would have known if there were any production shutdown. There weren't any.