dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Given how critical the Gen 3 is for Tesla I'd be very surprised if they took that risk.
Fundamentally they cannot get this wrong. That's part of the reason why I think it'll take longer than most people seem to think.
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Fundamentally they cannot get this wrong. That's part of the reason why I think it'll take longer than most people seem to think.
Agree. Gen 3 is the mainstream high volume car. It absolutely positively has to be dead solid reliable and easy for normal people to own. Maybe I have a skewed view from reading the forums but it seems to me that the Model S owners are putting up with some "early adopter" inconveniences like screen reboots etc. Enthusiasts and early adopters will deal with that kind of thing. Average people won't. If Gen 3 has ANY high-profile glitches then Tesla may very well be done. They need to take the time to get it right. My guess is 2018.
I agree that there is a need to get things more right, that can mean less announcements ahead of time unless things are going as planned. There are a lot of moving parts and there is definitely going to be more media scrutiny. Unfortunately, the uninformed public buys into the mainstream media. Having said that, as part of my fiduciary duty as a shareholder, I am willing to be an early adopter for Gen 3 and will help spread the word!
strider
Active Member
When Tesla went IPO in mid-2010, they said that Model S would go into production summer 2012, and that's what happened.
strider
Active Member
I realize that your stock portfolio has forced the creation of a severe reality distortion field around yourself but you really should step outside and join us here in the real world sometime.
igotzzoom
Active Member
Actually if you look at my posts in this thread I only posted facts. First a very recent quote from Elon Musk. Then refuting your claim that Tesla has never hit a stated date.
My personal guess is Gen3 will come out sometime in 2017, as Tesla still appears to be shooting for a late 2016 or early 2017 timeline, which is really only 2 1/2 years away. But I'm giving 6-12 months for delays.
When people say there's no chance Gen3 will come out in 2017, it doesn't add up. Tesla's design team is done with Model X so they're working on Gen3 full-time. Also many of their engineers are pretty much done with Model X so they are also starting to focus in Gen3. The reason why Elon is saying Gen3 is about 2 1/2 years away is because they're actively working on Gen3 and they have a timeline. Can they timeline be delayed? Sure. But is the timeline impossible to fulfill? No.
Many people look at the Model X delay as proof that Tesla can't keep their stated deadlines. I disagree. Model X was delayed not because they couldn't keep their deadline. They could have released the Model X earlier if they wanted to but it makes strategic sense for them to push back Model X as they're still ramping up Model S because demand is more than double they anticipated.
Tesla anticipated Model S global demand to be 20k units a year and Model X demand to be 15k units. What many don't realize is the Model S demand blew away Tesla's own internal expectations, and that's why they were so production-constrained. Their agreement with Panasonic was made expecting 20k units of Model S a year.
So the Model X wasn't an execution error, it was a strategic move to push it out. Sure, there was a slight delay from end of 2014 to early 2015, but Tesla did that because they could (still ramping Model S) and they can afford to make the Model X better.
When you look at the Model S, in early 2010 Tesla said they'd start production in summer 2012, about 2 1/2 years from then. Most people scoffed them and said it was impossible. Sure earlier in 2009 they were hoping for a late 2011 production start, but Elon said his first hard promise for a Model S production start was when he said summer 2012 (back in early 2010), and he said he did his best to keep that date because it was a hard promise.
Now with Gen3, Elon hasn't made any hard promises. Late-2016 or early-2017 is an internal goal, so yes this date could be pushed back. But it's entirely possible that Tesla could start releasing limited number by that time (ie, founders cars).
Another factor is that while Tesla does miss many hoped for dates (I have no problem acknowledging that), if you look at the bigger picture Tesla is growing much faster than most anyone expected a couple years ago. Look at the number of stores and service centers. Look at the number of superchargers. Tesla IS moving fast, especially with their big initiatives. And Gen3 is going to be their biggest initiative yet. This is different than the Roadster "special something" for owners, which kind of got pushed back since it really is a low priority for Tesla (though Elon backtracked and said they'd do it this year because they said they would).
Another factor is Gen3 timeline is a huge set of moving parts. Gigafactory needs to start coming online at that time. They need to prep tooling, testing, etc. This is an enormous task and the entire company will be focused on this as their top priority in the next few years. I don't see this slipping more than 6 months from their currently stated goals, mainly because their target is only 2.5-3 years away and they are already working on Gen3.
Finally, I personally think that Gen3 will start off with smaller production and slowly ramp to volume production. Initially, it will likely start with signature cars (ie, 10k?) over the first 6 months as they work out the kinks of production. Then they'll slowly ramp from there. So I don't expect volume production to start until about a year or so after initial production, probably in 2018.
But I'm fully expecting the first signature Gen3 to be rolling off the line in 2017. Too much of Tesla's future depends on it for them to delay it beyond that.
igotzzoom
Active Member
And by the way, I'd love to see you defend your claim "Tesla/Elon has never hit a stated date so odds of 2017 are zero." Good luck with that.
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I agree with DaveT's assertion that the Model X delays were strategic decisions rather than execution errors. Also keep in mind that with Model X they added a lot of complexity to the car design (AWD, Falcon doors) that should either already be mostly solved or won't be an issue at all for Gen 3. I doubt AWD will be an option for G3, at least immediately. I think the real major factor is going to be cell supply and the GF timelines. Even without the GF they may be able to start limited production for a while, assuming S and X demand don't absorb every cell Tesla can buy.
strider
Active Member
I've been around here and been a customer of Tesla for awhile longer than you have. Tesla has repeatedly missed dates and promised features (on-board music storage, WiFi hotspot, vanity mirrors, sun shade, aero wheels-yes they're back now, etc). This happened before you joined but the start of Model S "production" consisted of 14 hand-built cars delivered to insiders and investors. It was then several months later when actual line production began.
Further it doesn't matter *why* Model X was delayed, the simple fact of the matter is that for the people who put down their money Tesla will not make the dates they stated which is yet another broken promise. And don't give me this garbage about what is or is not a "hard" date. If Elon says it then it's a company commitment; he doesn't get to pick and choose which things he "meant." Tesla is also a big fan of revisionist history, most recently downplaying the value of having Lotus help them w/ the Roadster.
As you stated a TON of things have to go exactly perfectly for Tesla to hit a 2017 date and I just don't think they're capable of it. Tesla has never built or run a battery factory before and so they will make mistakes. Sure, Panasonic is "helping" them but history says that Elon will make decisions that are contrary to expert recommendations and he will simply decree it regardless of the consequences (narrowing the side sills on the Roadster as one example - cost a boatload of money and time). Remember that Tesla has to not only BUILD the GF but they have to make significant cost-saving improvements in order to hit their cost models for Gen3. That is something that we just don't know the timelines on. If Tesla only wanted to make a smaller Model S w/ existing cells they could likely crank it out by late next year but that's not the goal of the car.
This board amuses me because anytime someone says something negative about Tesla everyone freaks out and thinks we're shorting the stock or are involved in some kind of plot to ruin the company. You people make Apple fanbois look like haters. Look at my .sig. I'm a believer in Tesla, but I'm also a realist and have worked in Silicon Valley for the past 15 years. My company has never hit a stated date either, it's part of the culture.
I realize that my use of the word "never" is provocative and perhaps I should have said "almost never." But look, it's clear by the articles in your .sig that you are talking your book. There is literally nothing I can say that will counter your faith and I have better things to do with my time than argue on the Internet. My prediction of Gen 3 production in 2018 stands.
The article below was available on the net this morning. It says that Chris Porritt, the company’s vice-president of engineering a Brit who left Aston Martin last year to join Tesla, told Autocar that the price of batteries was the key calculation when engineering the model, which is expected in late 2016. “Building the Gigafactory will help make battery manufacturing more cost-effective,” he said.
Tesla promises realistic pricing for new BMW 3-series rival | Autocar
Tesla promises realistic pricing for new BMW 3-series rival | Autocar
If you go back in this thread, I simply replied to your claim that Tesla/Elon "has never hit a stated date"and that the "odd of 2017 are zero". I didn't make a personal attack and just focused on facts.
But then you made it personal talking about a reality distortion field and such. And even now you're accusing me of being an unrealistic fanboy. If you go through my past posts in the investors group, you'll see my reputation there is actually that of one of the most level-headed members.
I just wish you'd leave the personal accusations out of it. It really doesn't help your case.
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A few things regarding this. First, Tesla doesn't need the Gigafactory running at full capacity before releasing the Gen3. They could focus the first 6-12 months of production on signature and early performance models with the biggest battery option (maybe 10k-40k units) with an average selling price of at least $60k ($35k base, $10k bigger battery, $10k performance, $5-10k options). If they do this, then the margin on these high-end Gen3 cars will be far greater than the base model and they wouldn't need the battery/cell cost-savings to be that drastic in order for them to pull in a satisfactory margin. This will allow them to get started with Gen3 production earlier than what some people in this thread expect (ie., people might expect 2018 but a 2017 debut is likely IMO). It is true that in order for them to realize a decent margin on the base model ($35k plus few options) that they will need the Gigafactory up and running and near full capacity to realize the full cost-savings expectations they have. But I don't expect that happen until 2018, maybe 2019.
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Dave, don't you think investor pressure on TSLA would be severe if the car is delayed until 2018/2019 waiting for the gigafactory? You make a plausible case from what I've read re initial introduction of high-end versions to maintain pizzazz and margins.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The X was delayed I think because of 2 factors: Falcon wing doors and AWD. I don't think AWD has been done on a BEV before. The Falcon wings also must have posed serious engineering challenges.
If G3 is a straight up RWD sport sedan, I think Tesla could bring it to market by 2017 easily if there are no novel features.
Whether Tesla can build G3 at 300k+ units/year in 2017 is obviously a different question.
If Gen3 is delayed to 2018, then there might be some short-term pressure. But I don't think it would affect the long-term trend much. The key is demand. Demand for Model S/X and demand for Gen3. This is the main factor that is and will drive TSLA's stock price. I wrote a post about why demand is so important last year and it outlines some of my thoughts in more detail, Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013 - Page 597 .
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